Sunday, May 10
A Tale of Two Kentuckys: Sun West, Light Showers East
A weak mid-level disturbance will track across the Commonwealth today, leading to a stark contrast in conditions. Western Kentucky will enjoy sunshine and very warm temperatures, while central and eastern regions deal with increasing cloud cover and scattered light rain showers. No severe weather is expected, with precipitation remaining light and nuisance-level.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a warm, spring-like day. However, confidence is lower regarding the exact western extent and timing of light rain showers, as the GEM model remains a dry outlier and surface-level dry air may impede precipitation reaching the ground.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Residents in Paducah and Mayfield can expect a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 70s. Any clouds that do develop will remain high and thin, offering no threat of rain.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very nice day is in store for Owensboro. Early morning clouds will give way to a bright afternoon with highs in the mid-70s. It will be slightly breezy at times but otherwise ideal for being outside.
Southwest Pennyrile
Hopkinsville will see a warm day with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s. While most of the day remains sunny, clouds will move in during the evening hours, with a stray sprinkle possible late.
Barren River
Expect a dry day in Bowling Green with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s, making it feel quite warm, though a steady breeze will persist through the afternoon.
Louisville Metro
The Louisville area will see plenty of clouds today, but rain should stay at bay for most. A stray shower cannot be ruled out late in the day, but no significant impacts are expected.
Lincoln Trail
A mostly grey day for Elizabethtown. While temperatures will be comfortable in the low 70s, expect a few light showers or drizzle to develop during the afternoon hours.
Lake Cumberland
Light rain showers will move through the Somerset area this afternoon and evening. Rainfall will be light, totaling only a few hundredths of an inch, enough to dampen the pavement.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a lot of clouds across Covington and Newport. While a stray sprinkle or light shower is possible, the air near the ground is dry enough that much of the rain may not reach the surface.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see clouds increase by mid-day, followed by periods of light rain showers through the afternoon. Rain will be light, but an umbrella will be useful for evening plans.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy skies will dominate in Richmond and Berea. Light rain will move in during the afternoon hours, providing a damp finish to the day with totals around 0.04 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and Morehead will experience a grey day with multiple rounds of light rain showers. Rainfall amounts will be minor, generally staying under a tenth of an inch.
Southeast Kentucky
The most frequent rain will occur in the mountains. Expect steady but light showers to dampen the region through the afternoon and evening, with accumulations around 0.12 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave energy is more concentrated and interacts more efficiently with the orographic lift in the Southeast Coalfields, localized rainfall totals could reach 0.25 to 0.40 inches, providing a more widespread dampening of the region.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air at the surface wins, as suggested by the GEM, the system results in a 'virga event' where rain evaporates before hitting the ground, leaving most of the state dry with only mid-level cloudiness.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Margin
A notable disagreement exists between the GEM and the rest of the model suite. The GEM maintains a strong subsidence inversion and high pressure, keeping the entire state bone-dry. The GFS, NAM, and Euro all identify a weak impulse sufficient for light rain.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a middle-ground solution that accounts for the weak synoptic lift without the NAM's aggressive orographic bullseyes or the GEM's total moisture exclusion, which is likely too dry given the satellite-indicated moisture plume.
The Southeast Spigot
The NAM is forecasting over a quarter-inch of rain in the Southeast Coalfields due to terrain-induced lift, while global models (GFS/Euro) show less than a tenth of an inch.
Why UNCERTAIN Wins
While the NAM resolves the complex terrain of the Appalachian foothills better, it frequently overestimates totals in weak forcing environments. A blended approach is favored here.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.