Monday, May 11
Morning Showers South and East; Afternoon Sun Statewide
A progressive mid-level disturbance will traverse the Commonwealth this morning, bringing a swath of light to moderate rain showers primarily to areas south of the Ohio River and east of I-65. As this feature exits into the Appalachians by midday, rapid clearing will occur from west to east. A mild and pleasant spring afternoon is expected for all regions with seasonable temperatures.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the overall evolution and timing of the system. The primary uncertainty is the exact northern extent of the measurable rain shield near the Ohio River and the influence of the terrain on final totals.
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Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful day with virtually no chance of rain. Clouds will thin out early in the morning, leaving plenty of sunshine for the afternoon. Temperatures will be the warmest in the state, reaching the mid-70s with a gentle breeze.
Northwest Pennyrile
A quiet and bright day is expected along the Ohio River. Any early morning clouds will quickly give way to blue skies by 10 AM. Highs will reach the lower 70s, making it a perfect day for outdoor activities.
Southwest Pennyrile
A few light showers are possible before sunrise, but these will end very early. The remainder of the day will be sunny and breezy. Expect accumulations to be minimal, likely only dampening the pavement.
Barren River
Wet roads are likely for the morning commute as a period of light rain moves through. The afternoon will be much improved with sunshine returning. Rainfall totals will be light, generally around one-tenth of an inch.
Louisville Metro
The city will wake up to gray skies, but rain is expected to stay mostly to the south. Clouds will break up by lunchtime, leading to a sunny afternoon. Temperatures will be very pleasant, topping out in the lower 70s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect some light rain showers through the early morning hours. Conditions will dry out quickly by noon with sunshine for the rest of the day. Rain amounts will be very light, with around 0.05 inches expected.
Lake Cumberland
It will be a soggy start to the day with steady light rain through the morning commute. Rainfall will average around a quarter of an inch. Rain will end by early afternoon, followed by some late-day sunshine.
Northern Kentucky
The rain will stay well to your south today. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in the morning with a fully sunny afternoon. Temperatures will be comfortable, reaching the lower 70s.
Inner Bluegrass
A few light rain showers are expected this morning, mostly before 11 AM. The afternoon will be bright and beautiful for the Lexington area. Total rain will be very light, around 0.04 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Morning rain showers will give way to clearing skies by the afternoon. Expect accumulations around 0.08 inches. It will be a seasonably mild afternoon with highs near 69 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
A gray morning is in store with a few light showers or sprinkles possible. Skies will clear from west to east during the afternoon. Rainfall will be minimal, likely less than 0.05 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect the most rain in the state today across the mountains. Light to moderate rain will persist through the morning, totaling around 0.30 inches. Rain will move out by mid-afternoon, but clouds may linger until evening.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If orographic enhancement in the Southeast Coalfields is maximized and the shortwave slows, rainfall totals could exceed 0.50 inches in the mountains, with clouds lingering through sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry slot arrives earlier than modeled, precipitation may manifest as little more than sprinkles or virga for the Bluegrass, with skies clearing before the morning commute ends.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Cumberland Plateau QPF Peak
Disagreement exists on the magnitude of rainfall in the southeast. The Euro and GFS are more aggressive (0.25-0.35") due to stronger low-level convergence, while the NAM is more conservative (0.15-0.20").
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's handling of moisture transport into the terrain is generally more reliable in these progressive shortwave setups. Orographic lift will likely push totals toward the higher end of the spectrum.
The Western Moisture Muddle
The GFS and GEM suggest widespread light precipitation (0.01-0.02") across the Purchase and Northwest Pennyrile, whereas the NAM and Euro maintain a dry solution for these regions.
Why EURO Wins
The GFS has a known 'Smear' bias for light precipitation in dry air environments. Given the significant dewpoint depressions in the lowest 3km, the drier Euro/NAM solutions are more physically consistent with a high-virga environment.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.