Saturday, May 9
Morning Showers Taper Off; A Bright Afternoon Ahead
A weak weather system will move through the Commonwealth early in the day, bringing light rain to northern and eastern regions. These showers will exit by midday, leading to a sunny, mild, and pleasant spring afternoon for all of Kentucky.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the overall timing and the transition to sunny skies. Moderate uncertainty remains regarding the exact rainfall totals in the northern tier due to sub-cloud dry air.
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Purchase Area
A few early clouds will quickly give way to clear skies. It will be the warmest spot in the state with temperatures reaching the 80-degree mark.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a few morning clouds to vanish by lunchtime, leading to a beautiful and sunny afternoon with highs in the upper 70s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will dominate the day after some early morning clouds move out. Temperatures will be very comfortable for any outdoor plans.
Barren River
A damp start is possible, but skies will turn bright and sunny by the afternoon with temperatures nearing 80 degrees.
Louisville Metro
A few light rain showers or drizzle may dampen the morning commute, but clouds will clear out for a very pleasant and sunny afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Morning clouds will be stubborn but will break up by midday to reveal plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures.
Lake Cumberland
Expect some clouds through the morning, but the sun will break through by lunch. It will be a breezy but warm afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
Light rain showers are likely during the morning hours. Skies will clear by mid-afternoon, making for a very nice evening.
Inner Bluegrass
A few light showers are expected this morning. Once the rain moves out, it will stay breezy as the sun returns for the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Light morning showers will quickly give way to a breezy and drying afternoon with temperatures in the mid-70s.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will linger through the late morning but should clear out by mid-afternoon, leaving a comfortable evening with highs in the low 70s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a few morning sprinkles followed by a sunny and mild afternoon. Breezy conditions are likely on the higher ridges.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM solution verifies, where moisture is slightly deeper, resulting in more widespread rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.30 inches for the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky, with clouds lingering into the late afternoon and keeping temperatures in the upper 60s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The GFS and GEM 'Virga' scenario wins out, where substantial low-level dry air evaporates most precipitation before it hits the ground. In this case, most areas stay dry with only a few sprinkles, and sunshine breaks out before 10:00 AM, pushing temperatures into the low 80s in Western Kentucky.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Verdict
The NAM predicts measurable rainfall over 0.25 inches in Northern Kentucky, while the GFS and GEM suggest most of this moisture will evaporate as 'virga' due to large dewpoint depressions in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides the most realistic middle-ground, accounting for the modest synoptic lift while acknowledging the low-level dry air, resulting in light but measurable totals around a tenth of an inch.
The Afternoon Thermal Spike
The GEM is significantly more aggressive with afternoon warming, suggesting highs reaching 80 degrees in the Purchase region, whereas the NAM and Euro keep temperatures in the mid-70s.
Why GEM Wins
Given the rapid clearing and strong warm-air advection (WAA) behind the departing trough, the GEM's trend toward higher end-of-day temperatures is the most probable outcome.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.