Friday, May 8
A Stellar Spring Day with a Massive Temperature Swing
High pressure will provide wall-to-wall sunshine and pleasant afternoon temperatures across the Commonwealth today. A dry evening cold front will bring increased clouds and a few gusts late, but no rain is expected to reach the ground.
Confidence Assessment
Models are in near-perfect agreement on the dry air mass and the temperature recovery. The only slight uncertainty is the cloud coverage late in the day for the northern tier.
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Purchase Area
Expect a bright and beautiful day with clear skies and light breezes. Temperatures will reach the low 70s by mid-afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunny skies will dominate with comfortable temperatures near 72 degrees. Winds will be light from the north.
Southwest Pennyrile
A perfect spring day with clear blue skies and highs in the low 70s.
Barren River
Grab a jacket this morning as temperatures start in the upper 30s. Full sun will bring a quick warm-up to 70 degrees.
Louisville Metro
A bright day across the city with clouds arriving after sunset. Breezy conditions are expected this evening with gusts to 25 mph.
Lincoln Trail
A very calm and seasonal day with plenty of sunshine and highs near 70.
Lake Cumberland
Expect light winds and clear skies, perfect for being out on the water. Highs will reach the upper 60s.
Northern Kentucky
A sunny afternoon will give way to a cloudy and breezy evening. While clouds will look dark, the air is too dry for any rain to reach the ground.
Inner Bluegrass
Enjoy clear skies and upper 60s throughout the afternoon. Perfect weather for any outdoor plans.
Bluegrass Foothills
A chilly morning start in the 30s will quickly transition to a bright, mild afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Temperatures will swing more than 30 degrees from a chilly morning to a warm afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Crisp mountain air and bright sunshine will make for a fantastic day. Light winds and pleasant 60s are expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the Euro's moisture return is more aggressive, a few light evening sprinkles could dampen pavements in Northern Kentucky near the Ohio River.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air mass remains totally entrenched, clouds will be non-existent even in the north, allowing temperatures to over-perform into the mid-70s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northern Kentucky Virga Duel
The ECMWF is an outlier, forecasting a high probability of light rain (0.02") for Northern Kentucky late today. All other models (NAM, GFS, GEM) show a column too dry for anything other than virga (rain evaporating before hitting the ground).
Why NAM Wins
NAM and GEM thermal profiles show massive dewpoint depressions (>20F) in the low levels, which is a classic signal for evaporation. The Euro's light QPF is likely a 'phantom precip' error in a moisture-starved environment.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.