Tuesday, May 5
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Lake Wind Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory issued May 4 at 1:15PM CDT until May 4 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Strong winds and rough waves on area lakes will create hazardous conditions for small craft.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Breezy Tuesday: Rain West, Dry Air Resisting in the East
A cold front will sweep across Kentucky today, bringing widespread rain to the western counties and gusty winds to the entire state. High pressure in the east will battle the moisture, likely keeping the Bluegrass and Coalfields dry through sunset.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in rain for the western third of the state. Moderate confidence in the eastward extent of measurable rainfall due to significant dry air in the Bluegrass. High confidence in gusty winds.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain arrives early and persists through much of the afternoon and evening. Expect around 1 inch of rainfall total, which could lead to some minor ponding on roads.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will build in by early afternoon and remain steady into the night. Total rain amounts will be around 0.6 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
Very windy today with gusts up to 40 mph. Rain will likely wait until late afternoon or evening and will stay under a quarter inch.
Barren River
Hold onto your hats as wind gusts reach 45 mph. A few light rain showers are possible after sunset, but amounts will be very low.
Louisville Metro
Expect a breezy and mild day with rain arriving during the late afternoon and evening. Accumulations will be around 0.3 inches.
Lincoln Trail
A very windy day with gusts up to 40 mph. Expect light rain to move in during the evening hours, totaling about 0.1 inches.
Lake Cumberland
A mostly dry but cloudy day is expected. While a stray shower is possible late at night, measurable rain is unlikely.
Northern Kentucky
Clouds will thicken throughout the day with rain arriving by sunset. Expect around 0.3 inches of rain by midnight.
Inner Bluegrass
Winds will be the main story with gusts over 40 mph. A few light showers may fall in the evening, but significant rain is not expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a dry day with increasing cloud cover and gusty winds. Rain should stay well to the west until after midnight.
Northeast Kentucky
Enjoy a beautiful, dry day with temperatures reaching the mid-70s. Clouds will increase late, but rain is not expected today.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay sunny and warm for the duration of the day. Wind will be lighter here than in the west.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The frontal boundary stalls slightly in Western Kentucky, allowing the Gulf moisture plume to dump 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rain in the Purchase area before shifting east.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air at the surface remains so entrenched that the rain shield evaporates before reaching I-65, leaving Central and Eastern Kentucky entirely dry with only high-level cloud cover.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Appalachian Virga Shield
The Euro (ECMWF) attempts to push measurable rain (0.10"+) into the Northeast KY and Coalfield valleys, while the NAM, GFS, and GEM show significant low-level dry air keeping the surface dry.
Why BLEND Wins
The NAM and GFS have a better handle on the resolution of the dry boundary layer in the lee of the mountains; however, the GEM supports trace amounts. We side with a drier solution for the east.
The Low-Level Jet Mixdown
NAM and GFS are aggressive with mixing high-momentum air from the 850mb jet to the surface, suggesting 40-45 mph gusts, while the GEM is much more conservative (25-30 mph).
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's high-resolution boundary layer physics typically captures the pre-frontal mixing better than global models in the spring, especially ahead of a sharp cold front.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.