Wednesday, May 6
Morning Rain and Gusty Winds Tapering Off from the West
A progressive weather system will sweep across Kentucky on Wednesday, bringing widespread rain and breezy conditions. Expect the wettest weather during the morning hours, with a gradual clearing trend moving from west to east starting in the early afternoon as a cold front exits the region.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement exists across all models regarding precipitation type (all rain) and the overall timing of the frontal passage. The only uncertainty lies in localized rainfall totals and the exact timing of afternoon clearing.
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Purchase Area
Rain will be most consistent during the overnight and early morning hours. By lunchtime, skies will begin to clear, leading to a pleasant but breezy afternoon. Accumulations will be light, staying around 0.2 inches for most.
Northwest Pennyrile
Morning commuters will deal with wet roads and occasional gusts up to 25 mph. Rain ends by early afternoon with partial clearing before sunset. Expect total rainfall to stay around 0.2 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
A soggy day is expected with rain lasting through the morning and continuing as light showers into the evening. Rainfall around 0.6 inches is likely. Expect mild temperatures in the upper 50s.
Barren River
The morning will be quite windy with rain showers. Rainfall totals around 0.6 inches are expected before rain becomes lighter late in the day.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see a few light showers during the morning commute, but rainfall will be minimal, around 0.1 inches. Expect partial sunshine by late afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a very wet morning with accumulations around 0.5 inches before the showers taper off in the afternoon. Highs will reach the low 60s.
Lake Cumberland
A very wet morning is ahead with accumulations around 0.7 inches and wind gusts up to 35 mph. Rain will lighten but continue into the afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
Rain will move out early, likely by lunchtime. Accumulations around 0.2 inches are expected. The afternoon will be dry and breezy with highs in the upper 50s.
Inner Bluegrass
The morning commute will be messy with rain and very gusty winds reaching 40 mph. Rainfall totals will be around 0.3 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Strong winds and heavy rain will impact the region through the morning. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible, with accumulations around 0.5 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be heaviest during the early morning hours, around 0.3 inches. By afternoon, the rain will stop and skies will begin to clear.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will start during the morning and last through most of the day. Wind gusts up to 38 mph are expected, with accumulations around 0.7 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the NAM's more aggressive moisture convergence verifies, southern Kentucky could see rainfall totals exceeding 1.25 inches with wind gusts peaking near 45 mph along the higher terrain of the Bluegrass and Coalfields.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the GFS's drier mid-level air entrainment occurs earlier, rainfall will be limited to a brief window of light showers under 0.25 inches for most, with skies clearing rapidly by noon across the central corridor.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Louisville Metro Moisture Cutoff
The GEM shows a robust 0.63 inch rainfall for Louisville, while the GFS and NAM suggest the primary moisture axis will be shunted south, leaving the city with less than 0.10 inches.
Why GFS Wins
Global models like the GFS and Euro are generally more reliable for synoptic moisture axis placement. The GEM's high total for Louisville appears to be a localized outlier compared to the broader consensus showing better forcing across the southern tier of the state.
The Wind Gust Intensity Gap
High-resolution NAM and GFS forecast significant momentum transfer, resulting in gusts up to 40-42 mph, while the GEM and Euro are more conservative, keeping gusts closer to 30 mph.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the resolution of low-level jet mixing and terrain-induced turbulence better in the pre-frontal environment. Its logic regarding the 45kt 850mb jet mixing down is sound given the expected pressure gradient.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.