Sunday, May 3
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 11:49AM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures well into the 30s for most locations will result in frost formation early Sunday.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 12:21PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of southwest Indiana including Dubois County as well as portions of central Kentucky along and west of the Natcher Parkwy. Patchy frost is forecast...mainly in protected valleys...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued May 2 at 12:24PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued May 2 at 12:24PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Low temperatures as low as around 30 are expected in deeper valleys and low lying areas at down on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE Estill, Laurel, Whitley, and Jackson Counties.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 12:24PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation by around dawn on Sunday in valley and low lying areas. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, and Wayne Counties.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 1:13PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 4:12PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of southwest Indiana including Dubois County as well as portions of central Kentucky along and west of the Natcher Parkway. Patchy frost is forecast...mainly in protected valleys...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued May 2 at 6:26PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 5:32PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of our region. Patchy frost is possible...particularly in notoriously cold low lying areas...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 5:44PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of our region. Patchy frost is possible...particularly in notoriously cold low lying areas...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, May 3, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Frost Transitions to Gusty Afternoon Spring Warmth
Kentucky will experience a sharp temperature transition today. After a widespread chilly start with areas of frost, particularly in Central and Eastern Kentucky, southerly winds will rapidly pull warmer air into the Commonwealth. Expect a dry and sunny afternoon for most, with increasing clouds and a small chance for light evening showers in North-Central regions.
Confidence Assessment
There is high confidence in the afternoon temperature recovery and wind gusts. Confidence is lower regarding the morning trace drizzle risk in the west and the evening shower timing in the north due to dry-air entrainment issues.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A frosty start will lead to the warmest afternoon in the state. Expect sunny skies and gusty south winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
Beautiful sunny skies will prevail all day with temperatures reaching the upper 60s by late afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
Some morning clouds and a few stray drops are possible early, but the sun will break through for a warm afternoon.
Barren River
After a chilly start, skies will remain mostly sunny with pleasant afternoon temperatures in the mid-60s.
Louisville Metro
A bright morning and afternoon will give way to increasing clouds and a 30% chance for a stray evening shower.
Lincoln Trail
A chilly morning will transition into a beautiful spring afternoon. Expect high clouds to arrive late.
Lake Cumberland
Expect plenty of sunshine and light winds. A perfect day to be outdoors near the lake.
Northern Kentucky
Widespread frost is expected this morning with temperatures near freezing. The afternoon will be sunny and cool.
Inner Bluegrass
A cold start with frost will give way to a sunny afternoon. A stray light shower is possible after sunset.
Bluegrass Foothills
After a frosty morning start, the sun will work quickly to bring temperatures up to around 60 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
Morning frost will be common in the valleys. The rest of the day will be bright, sunny, and pleasant.
Southeast Kentucky
A crisp morning will be followed by a beautiful afternoon with clear skies and very light winds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the morning warm-air advection (WAA) is slightly slower and the Euro's moisture return verifies, parts of the Bluegrass could see measurable light rain (0.05") after sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If dry air completely dominates as suggested by the GFS, the day will remain entirely cloud-free with no precipitation reaching the ground anywhere in the state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Evening Moisture Scramble
The Euro forecasts light measurable rain for the Louisville and Lexington metros after 6 PM, whereas the GFS and GEM keep the column too dry for anything other than mid-level clouds.
Why UNCERTAIN Wins
The Euro is generally superior with moisture return in overrunning setups, but given the dry antecedent air mass, a compromise (PoP 20-30%) is the most responsible forecast.
The Virga Vexation
The NAM is aggressive with high PoPs (80%) for freezing drizzle in the Pennyrile this morning, while global models (GFS/GEM/Euro) remain entirely dry.
Why GFS Wins
Model soundings show massive dewpoint depressions (>15F) in the lowest 2km. While the NAM identifies the lift and mid-level moisture, the physics favor the GFS/GEM interpretation that this moisture will evaporate before hitting the ground.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.