Saturday, May 2
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 12:19PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 1:25PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 33 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 1:25PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 33 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 1:25PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 1 at 1:50PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Colder air is forecast to build into the region behind a departing cold front. This will allow for near to below freezing temperatures and isolated instances of frost; especially in the more sheltered valleys. Those with sensitive outdoor or potted plants should consider covering them or bringing them inside.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 2:29PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures of 29 to 32 are possible in the valleys. Along with the sub-freezing temperatures, frost formation is likely.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 1 at 3:22PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clouds will clear overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 30s across the northeastern Bluegrass. Isolated frost is possible (20-40%) in protected valleys before temperatures warm into the 40s by mid-morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 6:14PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 6:14PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 6:14PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 9:04PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Low temperatures around 30 are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost.
WHERE The Freeze Watch includes portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN The Freeze Watch runs from late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 9:04PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Light winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures in the mid 30s for most places will result in areas of frost by dawn on Saturday.
WHERE The Frost Advisory includes Estill County.
WHEN The Frost Advisory runs from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 9:04PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, light winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures in the mid 30s for most places will result in areas of frost by dawn on Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, low temperatures around 30 are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE The Frost Advisory and Freeze Watch are for Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rowan, Lee, Morgan, and Wolfe Counties.
WHEN The Frost Advisory runs from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. The Freeze Watch runs from late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions can kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 9:04PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, light winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures in the mid 30s for most places will result in areas of frost by dawn on Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, low temperatures around 30 are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE The Frost Advisory and Freeze Watch are for Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rowan, Lee, Morgan, and Wolfe Counties.
WHEN The Frost Advisory runs from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. The Freeze Watch runs from late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions can kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 9:22PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 1 at 9:26PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Patchy frost is possible early Saturday morning, mainly in valleys. The amount of clouds overnight will affect the ability for temperatures to cool off. There is uncertainty regarding the amount of cloudiness. Greater amounts of clouds overnight would prevent frost, while fewer clouds could would allow for more frost. People with sensitive plants outside may want to consider protecting them just in case the frost tends toward the greater end of the potential.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 2 at 1:21AM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, until 9 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 1:21AM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, until 9 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 2 at 1:21AM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 3:28AM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN Until 9 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 4:15AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Patchy dense fog has developed this morning, especially in valley areas. Remain alert for rapid changes in visibility if driving this morning. Visibilities will improve as the morning progresses.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 4:59AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
With temperatures falling into the mid and upper 30s, patchy frost is possible early this morning, mainly in rural valleys. Those with sensitive plants outdoors may want to consider protecting them.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 6:39AM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Light winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures in the mid 30s for most places will result in areas of frost early this morning.
WHERE Estill County.
WHEN Until 9 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 2 at 6:39AM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Low temperatures around 30 are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost.
WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 2 at 6:39AM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, light winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures in the mid 30s for most places will result in areas of frost early this morning. For the Freeze Watch, low temperatures around 30 are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rowan, Lee, Morgan, and Wolfe Counties.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, until 9 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions can kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 6:39AM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, light winds, mostly clear skies, and low temperatures in the mid 30s for most places will result in areas of frost early this morning. For the Freeze Watch, low temperatures around 30 are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE Bath, Elliott, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rowan, Lee, Morgan, and Wolfe Counties.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, until 9 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions can kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left unprotected.
Take steps to protect sensitive plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 11:49AM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures well into the 30s for most locations will result in frost formation early Sunday.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 12:21PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of southwest Indiana including Dubois County as well as portions of central Kentucky along and west of the Natcher Parkwy. Patchy frost is forecast...mainly in protected valleys...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 12:24PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation by around dawn on Sunday in valley and low lying areas. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, and Wayne Counties.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued May 2 at 12:24PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Low temperatures as low as around 30 are expected in deeper valleys and low lying areas at down on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE Estill, Laurel, Whitley, and Jackson Counties.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued May 2 at 12:24PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Low temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected in the deeper valleys at dawn on Sunday. Even outside of the deeper valleys, lows in the mid 30s in many locations may result in frost by dawn on Sunday.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 2 at 1:13PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 4:12PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of southwest Indiana including Dubois County as well as portions of central Kentucky along and west of the Natcher Parkway. Patchy frost is forecast...mainly in protected valleys...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued May 2 at 6:26PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 5:32PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of our region. Patchy frost is possible...particularly in notoriously cold low lying areas...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 2 at 5:44PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Clouds will clear this evening, allowing temperatures to fall by daybreak Sunday into the mid to upper 30s across portions of our region. Patchy frost is possible...particularly in notoriously cold low lying areas...for Sunday morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, May 2, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Light Evening Showers West; Sunny and Chilly East
A moisture-starved shortwave trough will traverse the Commonwealth on Saturday, bringing chances for light rain and drizzle to Western and Central Kentucky. Eastern Kentucky will remain dry under the influence of departing high pressure, featuring a chilly start followed by a pleasant afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall temperature trend and the weak nature of the system, but minor timing and placement differences for the very light rainfall prevent a perfect score.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a cloudy day with light rain or drizzle moving in by the afternoon. Totals will be light, generally under a tenth of an inch.
Northwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will dominate the day with a few light showers possible in the afternoon and evening. Highs will reach the upper 50s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A mostly cloudy day will lead to light rain showers by late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be mild, peaking in the low 60s.
Barren River
Expect light rain to develop during the afternoon and continue into the evening. Rainfall totals around five-hundredths of an inch are expected.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will likely stay dry today. Clouds will increase throughout the afternoon, but rain should evaporate before reaching the ground.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a mostly cloudy day with a small chance for a light shower or sprinkle during the evening. No significant accumulation is expected.
Lake Cumberland
A very cloudy day is expected across the lake, but any rain is likely to remain light and scattered. Most areas will see no measurable rainfall.
Northern Kentucky
Expect plenty of sunshine today with temperatures in the mid-50s. A chilly morning start will give way to a crisp, clear afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
A beautiful and dry day is in store for Lexington. Highs will be in the mid-50s under mostly sunny skies.
Bluegrass Foothills
The foothills will remain dry today. Morning sunshine will give way to some afternoon clouds as the system moves south of the area.
Northeast Kentucky
After a very chilly start in the mid-30s, Ashland and Morehead will warm into the upper 50s under sunny skies.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be seasonable, reaching the upper 50s by late afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If low-level moisture advection is stronger than current model consensus, the light rain shield could expand further east, reaching the I-75 corridor by evening and producing widespread totals of 0.10 to 0.15 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A 'Bust' would involve the dry air wedge winning out completely. In this scenario, radar echoes would represent only virga, resulting in zero measurable precipitation at the surface across the entire state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Void
The NAM and GFS show a moisture plume reaching into Central Kentucky, while the GEM and ECMWF are more aggressive with dry air, suggesting rain may evaporate before hitting the ground near Louisville and Lexington.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF typically handles sub-cloud dry slots and moisture cutoffs with superior accuracy in weak synoptic setups compared to the NAM's tendency to over-saturate the boundary layer.
Western Rainfall Intensity
The NAM predicts a 'bullseye' of over 0.15 inches in the Barren River area, while global models keep totals under 0.05 inches.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM likely overestimates totals due to its mesoscale convective parameterization, the global models likely underestimate localized terrain-induced drizzle. A blend provides the most realistic expectation.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.