Friday, May 1
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 12:19PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 1:25PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 33 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 1:25PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 33 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 1:25PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 32 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 1 at 1:50PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Colder air is forecast to build into the region behind a departing cold front. This will allow for near to below freezing temperatures and isolated instances of frost; especially in the more sheltered valleys. Those with sensitive outdoor or potted plants should consider covering them or bringing them inside.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 2:29PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures of 29 to 32 are possible in the valleys. Along with the sub-freezing temperatures, frost formation is likely.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued May 1 at 3:22PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clouds will clear overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 30s across the northeastern Bluegrass. Isolated frost is possible (20-40%) in protected valleys before temperatures warm into the 40s by mid-morning. Consider covering outdoor plants or bringing them indoors should frost form in the morning.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued May 1 at 6:14PM EDT until May 2 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 6:14PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northern, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Frost Advisory, from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued May 1 at 6:14PM EDT until May 3 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, May 1, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Pleasant Spring Day with Scattered Northern Sprinkles
A dry air mass dominated by surface high pressure will provide pleasant conditions for most of Kentucky, while a weak shortwave trough brings light, nuisance rain showers to the northern and eastern counties.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic pattern and temperature profile. The only uncertainty lies in the precise southern extent of measurable precipitation due to dry low-level air.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful spring day with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the low 60s. Winds will be light, making for a perfect outdoor day.
Northwest Pennyrile
A clear day with cool sunshine. Breezy conditions in the morning will taper off by sunset, with highs reaching 62 degrees.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will dominate throughout the day with mild afternoon temperatures and light winds. A very quiet weather day.
Barren River
A bright day with sunshine from start to finish and comfortable temperatures near 62 degrees.
Louisville Metro
Expect a mix of clouds and sunshine. While a stray sprinkle is possible to the north, the metro area should stay dry with a high around 60.
Lincoln Trail
A pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and mild afternoon highs near 60 degrees.
Lake Cumberland
Plenty of sunshine for the lake region with warm highs in the mid-60s.
Northern Kentucky
Light rain will be possible throughout the day, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. Any rainfall will be very light, totaling around 0.04 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Cloudy skies will dominate, with a few light showers or sprinkles possible during the afternoon hours. Rainfall will be minimal at around 0.01 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a mix of sun and clouds with breezy afternoon conditions. Rain is expected to stay to the north.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain showers will move in during the afternoon and linger into the evening, with accumulations around 0.05 inches expected.
Southeast Kentucky
Most of the day will be dry and pleasant, though some light rain showers may move through the area after sunset, totaling about 0.01 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level moisture profile is deeper than modeled, light rain could expand further south into the Lincoln Trail and Lake Cumberland regions, with totals in the Northeast approaching 0.25 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the low-level dry air remains entrenched, the precipitation will manifest entirely as virga, resulting in a dry day statewide with only passing mid-level cloud decks.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Barrier
Models are in conflict regarding the ability of light rain to reach the surface. The NAM and Euro are more aggressive with saturating the lower 3km, while the GFS and GEM keep the surface dry due to high dewpoint depressions.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves shallow moisture layers and weak isentropic lift better than global models in the 24-48 hour window, particularly in the complex terrain of Eastern Kentucky.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.