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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Apr 27
Wed, Apr 29
Forecast For

Tuesday, April 28

Updated Apr 27, 6:47 PM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Tornado Watch

Apr 27, 3:46 PM -> Apr 28, 12:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued April 27 at 2:46PM CDT until April 27 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Tornado Watch

Apr 27, 3:46 PM -> Apr 28, 12:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued April 27 at 2:46PM CDT until April 27 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Apr 27, 6:35 PM -> Apr 27, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 27 at 6:35PM EDT until April 27 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Apr 28, 12:08 AM -> Apr 28, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued April 28 at 12:08AM EDT until April 28 at 3:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Apr 28, 12:23 AM -> Apr 28, 2:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued April 28 at 12:23AM EDT until April 28 at 2:30AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Apr 28, 1:07 AM -> Apr 28, 3:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued April 28 at 1:07AM EDT until April 28 at 3:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Apr 28, 1:07 AM -> Apr 28, 3:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued April 28 at 1:07AM EDT until April 28 at 3:15AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Apr 28, 1:40 AM -> Apr 28, 3:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued April 28 at 1:40AM EDT until April 28 at 3:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Apr 28, 1:44 AM -> Apr 28, 2:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 28 at 1:44AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Apr 28, 1:59 AM -> Apr 28, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 28 at 1:59AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Apr 28, 2:01 AM -> Apr 28, 5:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued April 28 at 2:01AM EDT until April 28 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Tornado Watch

Apr 28, 2:04 AM -> Apr 28, 6:00 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Watch issued April 28 at 1:04AM CDT until April 28 at 5:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flash Flood Warning

Apr 28, 2:05 AM -> Apr 28, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued April 28 at 2:05AM EDT until April 28 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Apr 28, 2:06 AM -> Apr 28, 2:45 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 28 at 2:06AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Apr 28, 2:09 AM -> Apr 28, 2:45 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 28 at 2:09AM EDT until April 28 at 2:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Warning

Apr 28, 2:09 AM -> Apr 28, 2:30 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued April 28 at 2:09AM EDT until April 28 at 2:30AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Apr 28, 2:09 AM -> Apr 28, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 2:09AM EDT until April 28 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Apr 28, 2:11 AM -> Apr 28, 3:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 28 at 1:11AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Apr 28, 2:12 AM -> Apr 28, 2:45 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 28 at 2:12AM EDT until April 28 at 2:45AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Apr 28, 2:13 AM -> Apr 28, 2:45 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 28 at 2:13AM EDT until April 28 at 2:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Apr 28, 2:18 AM -> Apr 28, 3:15 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 28 at 2:18AM EDT until April 28 at 3:15AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Tornado Warning

Apr 28, 2:19 AM -> Apr 28, 2:45 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued April 28 at 2:19AM EDT until April 28 at 2:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Apr 28, 2:19 AM -> Apr 28, 2:30 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 28 at 2:19AM EDT until April 28 at 2:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Apr 28, 2:19 AM -> Apr 28, 4:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued April 28 at 2:19AM EDT until April 28 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Apr 28, 2:20 AM -> Apr 28, 2:30 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued April 28 at 2:20AM EDT until April 28 at 2:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Apr 28, 2:32 PM -> Apr 28, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 1:32PM CDT until April 28 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Apr 28, 6:24 PM -> Apr 29, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 6:24PM EDT until April 29 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Apr 28, 6:28 PM -> Apr 29, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 6:28PM EDT until April 29 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Apr 28, 6:59 PM -> Apr 28, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 5:59PM CDT until April 28 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Apr 28, 6:59 PM -> Apr 29, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 5:59PM CDT until April 29 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Apr 28, 7:35 PM -> Apr 28, 8:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 28 at 6:35PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
85%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, April 28, 2026.

Temperature
±4.0°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±80.64"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±8.1mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
76° / 64°
Actual
81° / 62°
Error: -5°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1"
Actual
22.58"
±21.58" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 28 mph
Actual
7 / 35 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
75° / 65°
Actual
81° / 59°
Error: -6°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.1"
Actual
108.55"
±107.45" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 32 mph
Actual
6 / 47 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
76° / 64°
Actual
80° / 63°
Error: -4°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.5"
Actual
85.27"
±83.77" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 35 mph
Actual
6 / 45 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
75° / 63°
Actual
80° / 62°
Error: -5°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.8"
Actual
67.79"
±65.99000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
20 / 45 mph
Actual
8 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 64°
Actual
74° / 59°
Error: 0°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.4"
Actual
52.59"
±52.190000000000005" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 46 mph
Actual
10 / 58 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 62°
Actual
79° / 32°
Error: -5°F high, 30°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
106.34"
±105.74000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 42 mph
Actual
7 / 39 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
72° / 59°
Actual
80° / 60°
Error: -8°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
133.59"
±133.09" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 42 mph
Actual
7 / 47 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 62°
Actual
74° / 59°
Error: 0°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
124.99"
±124.49" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 46 mph
Actual
6 / 36 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 61°
Actual
76° / 58°
Error: -2°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.3"
Actual
55.84"
±55.540000000000006" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 44 mph
Actual
10 / 47 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
71° / 59°
Actual
76° / 59°
Error: -5°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.4"
Actual
27.12"
±26.720000000000002" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 42 mph
Actual
8 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
73° / 57°
Actual
77° / 59°
Error: -4°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
55.92"
±55.72" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 32 mph
Actual
6 / 42 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
72° / 57°
Actual
76° / 57°
Error: -4°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
135.6"
±135.4" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 28 mph
Actual
4 / 43 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Windy and Wet Tuesday with Multiple Rounds of Rain

A dynamic spring weather system will track across Kentucky on Tuesday, bringing widespread rainfall and significant wind gusts. Two distinct waves of precipitation are expected: an initial surge of steady rain during the overnight and morning hours, followed by a secondary round of lighter showers in the late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain very mild, with most locations reaching the 70s.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in temperature trends and the occurrence of rain; moderate confidence in the exact peak wind gusts and the intensity of the second wave of rain.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Rain and Evening Showers
Rain
76°/ 64°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Wet Morning Followed by Windy Afternoon
Rain
75°/ 65°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Significant Overnight Rainfall
Heavy_Rain
76°/ 64°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
High Wind Gusts and Heavy Rain
Heavy_Rain
75°/ 63°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Wind Advisory Levels Likely
Rain
74°/ 64°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Rain Returns for Evening Commute
Rain
74°/ 62°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Gusty and Damp on the Water
Rain
72°/ 59°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Strong Winds and Morning Rain
Rain
74°/ 62°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Blustery with Scattered Showers
Rain
74°/ 61°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Rain and Low Clouds in the Knobs
Rain
71°/ 59°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Light Morning Showers and Mild
Rain
73°/ 57°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Damp Morning followed by a Mild Afternoon
Rain
72°/ 57°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The 'Boom' scenario involves convective training over the Barren River and Pennyrile regions. If the low-level jet remains stationary longer than modeled, localized rainfall totals could exceed 3 inches, leading to minor flash flooding.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The 'Bust' scenario sees a more aggressive 'dry slot' cutting off moisture early in the morning. This would result in rainfall totals staying below 0.5 inches for most of the state, though it would likely increase the potential for even higher wind gusts due to better surface mixing.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Momentum Mix-Down

A significant disagreement exists regarding surface wind gusts. The GFS and NAM are aggressive with 45-50 mph gusts, while the Euro remains much more conservative near 25 mph.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM's superior resolution of the boundary layer and the high-intensity Low-Level Jet (LLJ) suggests more efficient momentum transfer in a high-theta-e environment.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METRONORTHERN KYBLUEGRASS COREBARREN RIVER

The Evening Wave Persistence

The GEM clears the state by midday, whereas the GFS and NAM suggest a secondary vorticity maximum will trigger another round of light rain in the evening.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why GFS Wins

The GFS synoptic evolution of the trailing trough axis is better supported by the broader ensemble mean and the presence of a lingering surface boundary.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILELINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical temperature stack is entirely warm and nearly moist-adiabatic. 850mb temperatures between +10C and +12C ensure all precipitation falls as liquid rain.

Thermal Boundary

The freezing line is displaced well to the north, situated near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal trend is expected in the west, with temperatures rising through the overnight hours due to strong warm air advection.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak surface trough and pre-frontal boundary will cross from west to east between 10 AM and 4 PM, marked by a slight wind shift and a brief lull in precipitation.

Jet Stream Support

Deep lift is provided by the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet streak, while the 850mb LLJ provides the primary kinematic energy.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is providing strong cyclonic vorticity advection, peaking between 06z and 15z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is saturated below 500mb during rain waves, though a pronounced mid-level dry slot will move through during the afternoon.

Precipitation Character

Rain will be primarily stratiform in nature, though some embedded convective elements are possible in the southern tier where marginal instability exists.

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are relatively dry, but the Barren River basin may see minor ponding due to the potential for training cells and totals approaching 2 inches.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

91% Illumination
Moonrise
6:07 PM
Moonset
5:27 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:41 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
9:09 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:57 AM
Sunset
8:36 PM
Civil Dawn
6:29 AM
Civil Dusk
9:04 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:00 AM
Sunset
8:36 PM
Civil Dawn
6:32 AM
Civil Dusk
9:04 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:28 AM
Civil Dusk
9:00 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:51 AM
Sunset
8:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:23 AM
Civil Dusk
9:00 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:31 PM
Civil Dawn
6:24 AM
Civil Dusk
8:59 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:48 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:20 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:44 AM
Sunset
8:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:16 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:46 AM
Sunset
8:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:18 AM
Civil Dusk
8:54 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:46 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:18 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:38 AM
Sunset
8:20 PM
Civil Dawn
6:10 AM
Civil Dusk
8:48 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
8:20 PM
Civil Dawn
6:14 AM
Civil Dusk
8:47 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.