Wednesday, April 29
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 1:32PM CDT until April 28 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER JACKSON PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MAYFIELD, MOUND CITY, MURPHYSBORO, NEW MADRID, PADUCAH, PERRYVILLE, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, SIKESTON, VAN BUREN, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 6:24PM EDT until April 29 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY CASEY GREEN HART LINCOLN MARION TAYLOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON LOGAN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON WARREN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ALBANY, ALLENDALE, ALVATON, AMANDAVILLE, ARGYLE, BEAUMONT, BLACK GNAT, BOWLING GREEN, BOYCE, BURKESVILLE, CAMPBELLSVILLE, CANE VALLEY, CANMER, CAVE CITY, CLEMENTSVILLE, COBURG, COLUMBIA, CREELSBORO, CROCUS, CUMBERLAND CITY, DUBRE, DUNBAR, DUNNVILLE, EDMONTON, EIGHTY EIGHT, ELK HORN, ELLA, EXIE, FLAT ROCK, FOREST SPRINGS, FRANKLIN, GASCON, GLASGOW, GLENS FORK, GRADYVILLE, GREENSBURG, HALFWAY, HARDYVILLE, HAYWOOD, HESTAND, HILLVIEW, HOBSON, HORSE CAVE, JABEZ, JAMESTOWN, KESSINGER, KNOB LICK, LEBANON, LECTA, LIBERTY, LOGANSPORT, LUCAS, MARROWBONE, MAYNARD, MIDDLEBURG, MIDDLETOWN, MINTONVILLE, MORGANTOWN, MUD LICK, MUNFORDVILLE, NEW MARKET, OLGA, PEYTONSBURG, PIERCE, PLANO, PRICES MILL, PROVIDENCE, QUALITY, REX, RICHARDSVILLE, ROCKBRIDGE, ROWLAND, RUSSELL SPRINGS, RUSSELLVILLE, SALEM, SALOMA, SCOTTSVILLE, STANFORD, STATIC, SUMMER SHADE, SUMMERSVILLE, TOMPKINSVILLE, UNO, WINDSOR, WISDOM, AND YUMA.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 6:28PM EDT until April 29 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MCCREARY PULASKI WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BURNSIDE, MONTICELLO, SOMERSET, STEARNS, AND WHITLEY CITY.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 5:59PM CDT until April 28 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT STODDARD THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MAYFIELD, MOUND CITY, NEW MADRID, PADUCAH, SIKESTON, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 28 at 5:59PM CDT until April 29 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN HOPKINS LYON MARSHALL MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTON, CADIZ, EDDYVILLE, ELKTON, GREENVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE, MADISONVILLE, MURRAY, AND PRINCETON.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued April 28 at 6:35PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 635 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Elkton to 12 miles southeast of Russellville to 9 miles northeast of Portland. Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Russellville, Scottsville, Franklin, Adairville, Woodburn, Alonzo, Cave Springs, Butlersville, New Roe, and Keysburg.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for south central Kentucky.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued April 29 at 2:56AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 256 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Rush, or 7 miles south of Cannonsburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD Pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Cannonsburg, Durbin, and Mavity. This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 184 and 187.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, April 29, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Rain and Breezy Conditions Ahead of a Cold Front
A progressive cold front will traverse Kentucky on Wednesday, bringing a widespread shield of rain during the morning and early afternoon. Skies will clear from west to east by the evening, accompanied by a notable drop in temperatures and breezy conditions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in rain occurrence and the all-liquid nature of the event. Moderate confidence regarding the exact timing of afternoon clearing and the magnitude of post-frontal wind gusts.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain will move in before sunrise, with the heaviest showers occurring during the morning commute. By the afternoon, the rain will move east, leaving behind breezy and cooler conditions with sunshine.
Northwest Pennyrile
A soaking rain is likely through the middle of the day, with accumulations around 0.55 inches. Afternoon hours will see the clouds begin to break, though it will remain windy.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a very windy morning with gusts near 30 mph. Rain will move through quickly, leaving the afternoon dry but much cooler.
Barren River
Most of the rain will be light, with a few sprinkles during the morning hours. Skies will remain mostly cloudy until late afternoon when some clearing is expected.
Louisville Metro
A wet morning is expected in the city. While the rain ends by early afternoon, clouds will linger until the evening commute. Expect around 0.40 inches of rainfall.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will be steady through the morning hours. As the front passes, winds will pick up, gusting over 25 mph, making for a raw afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Expect steady rain through the first half of the day. The rain will exit by late afternoon, but clouds will be slow to clear until after sunset.
Northern Kentucky
Showers will persist throughout much of the day. As the sun sets, it will become quite breezy and chilly for late April with lingering clouds.
Inner Bluegrass
A soggy morning is in store for Lexington. Rain will be steadiest through the morning commute and then become lighter in the afternoon. Accumulations around 0.50 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will start early and stay steady through the morning. The afternoon will turn windy as the rain moves into the mountains, with clouds finally breaking late.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect light rain to develop by midday, with the heaviest showers arriving in the afternoon. Most of the rain will be gone by nightfall, but the day will remain mostly cloudy and damp.
Southeast Kentucky
It will be a warm and mostly cloudy day in the mountains. Showers will move in during the afternoon and evening hours, with accumulations around 0.30 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
A slower frontal progression allows moisture to pool more effectively, resulting in a soaking rain of 0.75-1.00 inches across the Bluegrass and Eastern Kentucky, with clouds lingering through sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A faster, drier frontal passage limits rainfall to less than 0.20 inches for most, with rapid clearing by midday and a more pleasant, albeit breezy, afternoon.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Frontal Sharpness Conflict
The NAM and GFS depict a robust, sharp cold front with a significant temperature drop and higher wind gusts, while the Euro and GEM suggest a decaying, weaker boundary with more gradual cooling.
Why NAM Wins
In spring shortwave setups, mesoscale models like the NAM typically resolve the density gradients of surface cold fronts more accurately than global low-resolution models.
The QPF Bullseye Battle
The GFS predicts a heavy rainfall bullseye (0.80+) in the Northwest Pennyrile, while the NAM focuses the highest totals (0.60+) in the Bluegrass Core.
Why BLEND Wins
Both models likely suffer from localized convective 'bullseye' biases; a weighted blend provides a more realistic expectation of 0.40-0.60 inches.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.