Monday, April 27
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 27 at 6:46AM CDT until April 27 at 10:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EDWARDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE SALINE WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MCCRACKEN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBION, BARDWELL, BENTON, CARMI, CLINTON, ELIZABETHTOWN, FAIRFIELD, GOLCONDA, GRAYVILLE, HARRISBURG, HERRIN, HICKMAN, MAYFIELD, MCLEANSBORO, METROPOLIS, MOUNT CARMEL, MOUNT VERNON, MURRAY, PADUCAH, SHAWNEETOWN, SMITHLAND, VIENNA, WEST FRANKFORT, WEST SALEM, AND WICKLIFFE.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued April 27 at 2:46PM CDT until April 27 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 162 UNTIL 11 PM CDT /MIDNIGHT EDT/ THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WABASH IN INDIANA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA POSEY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA GIBSON PIKE SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK IN KENTUCKY THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY DAVIESS HENDERSON UNION THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BOONVILLE, EVANSVILLE, FORT BRANCH, HENDERSON, MORGANFIELD, MOUNT CARMEL, OWENSBORO, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, AND ROCKPORT.
Tornado Watch
Tornado Watch issued April 27 at 2:46PM CDT until April 27 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 162 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LYON MARSHALL MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG WEBSTER IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CADIZ, CAIRO, CALHOUN, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DIXON, DONIPHAN, EDDYVILLE, ELIZABETHTOWN, ELKTON, GOLCONDA, GREENVILLE, HARRISBURG, HERRIN, HICKMAN, HOPKINSVILLE, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MADISONVILLE, MARBLE HILL, MARION, MAYFIELD, METROPOLIS, MOUND CITY, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, PADUCAH, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, PRINCETON, SHAWNEETOWN, SIKESTON, SMITHLAND, VAN BUREN, VIENNA, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued April 27 at 6:35PM EDT until April 27 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159, PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING, IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY HANCOCK TRIMBLE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BEDFORD, BELLEVIEW, BELLEVIEW, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BRYANTSBURG, BRYANTSBURG, CANTON, CANTON, CEMENTVILLE, CEMENTVILLE, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CHINA, CHINA, CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT, CORYDON, CORYDON, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, DUKES, EDWARDSVILLE, EDWARDSVILLE, ENGLISH, EVANS LANDING, EVANS LANDING, FLOYDS KNOBS, FLOYDS KNOBS, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, HAWESVILLE, HITCHCOCK, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, JEFFERSONVILLE, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, LEWISPORT, MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MARENGO, MARENGO, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, MILTON, NEW ALBANY, NEW ALBANY, NEW BOSTON, PAOLI, PATESVILLE, PELLVILLE, SYRIA, TELL CITY, TERRY, WHITE CLOUD, WHITE CLOUD, AND YOUNGS CREEK.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, April 27, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Blustery and Warm with Heavy Rain West; Dry/Windy East
A vigorous spring cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth on Monday, creating a sharp east-west divide in weather conditions. Western Kentucky faces a period of soaking rain and localized heavy totals, while Central and Eastern Kentucky remain largely dry but contend with significant wind gusts and unseasonably warm, early-summer temperatures.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the unseasonable warmth and high wind gusts statewide. Moderate confidence remains on the exact eastern extent of the rain shield due to conflicting moisture profiles between global and mesoscale models.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a soggy day with heavy rain likely during the morning and afternoon. Rain totals will be around 1.25 inches. It will remain very warm and windy with gusts over 40 mph even inside the rain bands.
Northwest Pennyrile
Dry weather will hold through midday, but rain will move in during the afternoon hours. Total rainfall around 0.75 inches is expected along with wind gusts near 40 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm day with high temperatures in the low 80s. Expect scattered rain showers during the afternoon. Winds will be a factor, with sustained speeds of 20 mph and gusts topping 40 mph.
Barren River
Most of the day will be dry and warm for the Bowling Green area. Clouds will increase through the afternoon. A few light rain showers may arrive by evening, but amounts will be light, around 0.10 inches.
Louisville Metro
A warm and blustery day with afternoon rain showers. Expect around 0.40 inches of rainfall. Wind gusts will be strong, reaching up to 43 mph, especially during the evening hours.
Lincoln Trail
The main story will be the wind, with gusts reaching 44 mph. Use caution if driving high-profile vehicles. Rain chances are high but actual amounts will be light, around 0.10 inches.
Lake Cumberland
A dry and very warm spring day with temperatures reaching the upper 70s. While clouds increase late, rain is unlikely during the day. Expect wind gusts up to 40 mph on the water.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a warm start followed by a soaking rain moving in during the late afternoon and evening. Rain totals will be around 0.60 inches. It will be breezy with gusts over 35 mph.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will stay dry but very windy today. Wind gusts will reach up to 45 mph by the afternoon. Temperatures will feel like summer, reaching the upper 70s. Secure any loose outdoor items.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a warm and dry day with plenty of sun filtered through high clouds. Temperatures will climb into the low 80s. Wind gusts will peak around 40 mph.
Northeast Kentucky
Northeast Kentucky will have the best weather in the state. Expect sunny skies and very warm temperatures near 81 degrees. It will be breezy at times, but much calmer than the rest of the state.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful spring day for the mountains with highs in the low 80s and plenty of sunshine. No rain is expected, and winds will remain light to moderate.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' Scenario: If the cold front slows its eastward progression, the high-moisture plume could stall over the I-65 corridor, resulting in 2+ inches of rain for Louisville and Bowling Green, potentially causing minor flash flooding.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' Scenario: If the mid-level dry air is more aggressive, the rain shield could erode entirely before reaching I-65, leaving the central portion of the state with nothing more than a few sprinkles and high winds.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Wind Gust Magnitude
Models are split on whether peak gusts will reach 35 mph or 45+ mph. The NAM and GFS show deep mixing into the 50kt jet core, while the Euro is more conservative due to expected cloud cover.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS has a consistent track record of capturing momentum transfer in the pre-frontal warm sector; combined with NAM support, we favor the windier solution.
The Central Kentucky Dry Slot
There is a notable disagreement regarding how far east the rain shield will survive. The GFS and Euro suggest light rain reaching the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland, while the NAM and GEM maintain a stout dry layer below 700mb that evaporates most precipitation (Virga).
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's high-resolution handling of the low-level jet and moisture boundaries typically outperforms global models in resolving sharp 'dry slots' during spring frontal passages.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.