Tuesday, April 21
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued April 21 at 2:24AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Elevated conditions for wildfires are expected this afternoon, mainly between 12 PM and 7 PM CDT. Relative humidity values will fall to 25 to 35% this afternoon, and winds will be breezy from the south, sustained at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph forecast. Vegetation is dry due to ongoing moderate to extreme drought conditions over much of the region. Outdoor burning and activities that involve open sparks or flames are discouraged. Please report all wildfires to local law enforcement as soon as possible.
Lake Wind Advisory
The Lake Wind Advisory has been cancelled.
The Lake Wind Advisory has been cancelled and is no longer in effect.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Sunshine and Spring Warmth with Gusty Afternoon Winds
A bright and dry spring day is ahead for Kentucky as high pressure shifts toward the Atlantic coast. After a chilly, potentially frosty start in eastern valleys, temperatures will rebound into the 70s statewide. The main story will be the development of gusty southwesterly winds by late afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
Strong model agreement on the dry air mass and the overall synoptic setup. The only minor disagreement is the magnitude of the wind gusts and the exact ceiling for afternoon high temperatures.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
A fantastic spring day for Paducah and Mayfield. You will see wall-to-wall sunshine as temperatures climb to nearly 78 degrees. Expect a breezy afternoon with southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 mph at times.
Northwest Pennyrile
Clear blue skies will dominate the day for Owensboro. Afternoon highs will reach around 75 degrees. Winds will pick up by late afternoon, with some gusts near 30 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
A beautiful day with plenty of sun and temperatures reaching 77 degrees. It will be a bit breezy by the evening, but no rain is in the forecast.
Barren River
After a cool start, Bowling Green will see temperatures climb to a very pleasant 76 degrees. Expect sunshine all day with a light breeze becoming more noticeable by sunset.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will enjoy a bright day with a high of 75. Winds will become quite gusty in the afternoon. Gusts could reach up to 35 mph, so secure any loose outdoor items.
Lincoln Trail
Expect sunny skies and a high of 74 for Elizabethtown and Bardstown. Winds will pick up along the Muldraugh Escarpment, gusting to 35 mph by late afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Sunny skies and a high of 74 will make for a great day on the water, though the lake will get choppy by afternoon. Winds will gust between 25 and 30 mph during the late afternoon hours.
Northern Kentucky
A very cold morning with a few patches of frost likely before sunset. The afternoon turns sunny and windy with a high of 74. Winds will be the main story, gusting to 35 mph in Covington and Florence.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see plenty of sun and a high of 73, but it will be very windy. Winds will gust as high as 38 mph by the evening, especially in open areas.
Bluegrass Foothills
Early morning frost is possible in protected valleys. By the afternoon, expect sunny skies and a high of 73. It will be breezy, but the terrain will help block the strongest wind gusts compared to the flat plateau.
Northeast Kentucky
A frosty morning for Ashland and Morehead will give way to a bright and sunny afternoon with a high of 75. Winds will be breezy at times but generally lighter than areas further west.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful spring day across the mountains. After a chilly morning, highs will reach the lower 70s with light winds. Skies will remain clear into the night.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If vertical mixing reaches higher into the 800mb layer where the jet core resides, wind gusts could exceed 40 mph in the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky. Additionally, the Euro's warmer solution could push western Kentucky highs into the lower 80s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If a thin layer of high-level cirrus clouds arrives earlier than anticipated, it could temper the thermal recovery, keeping high temperatures in the upper 60s for the eastern half of the state and reducing the depth of the wind-mixing layer.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Transfer Tug-of-War
The NAM and GFS indicate significant wind gusts (30-40 mph) as the boundary layer mixes into a potent low-level jet, while the Euro remains much more conservative with surface wind speeds.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves the depth of the boundary layer mixing and the breakdown of morning inversions more accurately in spring return-flow setups, supporting higher gust potential.
Thermal Recovery Disparity
The Euro is an aggressive warm outlier, suggesting highs near 80°F in the west, whereas the GFS and GEM keep totals in the mid-70s.
Why BLEND Wins
While the ridge is strong, the very dry air mass and the chilly start favor a middle-ground approach to max temperatures before full dewpoint recovery occurs.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.