Wednesday, April 22
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, April 22, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Early Summer Warmth Arrives; Morning Showers North
A powerful ridge of high pressure will bring unseasonably warm temperatures and sunshine to the majority of Kentucky for April 22. A weakening shortwave trough will graze the northern and northeastern counties, providing a period of light morning rain and cloud cover before clearing by mid-afternoon. Breezy conditions are expected statewide during the morning hours.
Confidence Assessment
Very high confidence in unseasonably warm temperatures. High confidence in the dry forecast for Southern and Western KY. Moderate confidence in the southern extent and rainfall totals for the northern shower activity.
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Purchase Area
A beautiful, warm day is in store for the Purchase area. Skies will be bright blue with temperatures climbing into the low 80s by the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Skies will remain clear today as temperatures reach the high 70s. Expect a breezy morning with gusts up to 33 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm and pleasant day for Hopkinsville and Madisonville. Winds will be lighter than areas further north.
Barren River
Expect a bright and warm day across the region. Temperatures will reach near 80 degrees with no rain in sight.
Louisville Metro
Expect a windy morning with clouds and a brief light shower or sprinkles. Skies will clear rapidly by the afternoon, allowing for a warm finish to the day.
Lincoln Trail
Windy conditions will be the main story this morning, with gusts over 35 mph. Skies will be sunny for the afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
A fantastic day for the lake with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s.
Northern Kentucky
Keep the umbrella handy for the morning commute. Light rain will total about 0.15 inches before sunshine returns this afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
A very windy morning is expected in Lexington with gusts up to 40 mph. A few morning sprinkles are possible, but the sun will return by late afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a cloudy and breezy morning, with sunny skies taking over by the afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Residents in Ashland and Morehead will see the most rain today, with accumulations around a quarter of an inch. Rain will taper off to light drizzle by mid-afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful day for the mountains with clear skies and warm temperatures after some early morning clouds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' Scenario: If the northern shortwave tracks slightly further south and the moisture plume stalls, Northeast Kentucky could see over 0.75 inches of rain, with light showers extending as far south as the Cumberland Parkway.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' Scenario: If low-level dry air (dewpoint depressions >20F) is more persistent, the light rain in the north will largely evaporate as virga, resulting in little more than sprinkles and overcast skies for the I-64 corridor.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Morning Momentum Mix
Models are split on how much of the 40kt Low-Level Jet (LLJ) will mix to the surface during the morning hours.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM tends to handle boundary layer mixing and local terrain-induced gusts (like the Muldraugh Escarpment) with higher precision in the short-term window.
The Northeast QPF Disconnect
A significant disagreement exists regarding rainfall depth in Northeast Kentucky. The NAM is an aggressive outlier, suggesting nearly three-quarters of an inch of rain, while the GFS, Euro, and GEM suggest a much lighter nuisance event.
Why EURO Wins
The NAM's frontogenetical forcing appears overdone given the lack of deep-layer moisture support in the other global models. The Euro provides a more realistic compromise between the bone-dry GFS and the wet NAM.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.