kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sun, Apr 19
Tue, Apr 21
Forecast For

Monday, April 20

Updated Apr 20, 7:01 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 11:30 AM -> Apr 19, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 11:30AM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 12:02 PM -> Apr 19, 8:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 12:02PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 12:25 PM -> Apr 19, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 12:25PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 12:25 PM -> Apr 19, 8:30 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 12:25PM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 12:41 PM -> Apr 19, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 12:41PM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 3:38 PM -> Apr 19, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 3:38PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 6:46 PM -> Apr 20, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 6:46PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 6:46 PM -> Apr 20, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 6:46PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 6:46 PM -> Apr 20, 3:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 6:46PM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 7:35 PM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 7:35PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 7:40 PM -> Apr 20, 6:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 7:40PM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 7:40 PM -> Apr 20, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 7:40PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 7:44 PM -> Apr 20, 5:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 7:44PM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 9:46 PM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 9:46PM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 9:49 PM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 9:49PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 12:54 AM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 12:54AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 12:54 AM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 12:54AM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 12:54 AM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 12:54AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 1:49 AM -> Apr 20, 10:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 1:49AM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 2:41 AM -> Apr 20, 9:15 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 2:41AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 2:41 AM -> Apr 20, 9:15 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 2:41AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 2:41 AM -> Apr 20, 9:15 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 2:41AM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 2:41 AM -> Apr 20, 9:15 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 2:41AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 4:36 AM -> Apr 20, 1:00 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 4:36AM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 4:36 AM -> Apr 20, 1:00 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 4:36AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 4:36 AM -> Apr 20, 1:00 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 4:36AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 5:39 AM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 5:39AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 20, 5:39 AM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 20 at 5:39AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
80%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, April 20, 2026.

Temperature
±2.5°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.01"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±2.1mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
71° / 45°
Actual
71° / 32°
Error: 0°F high, 13°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 15 mph
Actual
4 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
67° / 44°
Actual
67° / 42°
Error: 0°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 12 mph
Actual
3 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
69° / 43°
Actual
68° / 39°
Error: 1°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 10 mph
Actual
4 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
68° / 42°
Actual
68° / 37°
Error: 0°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 10 mph
Actual
3 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 46°
Actual
58° / 43°
Error: 4°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 16 mph
Actual
6 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
64° / 42°
Actual
66° / 36°
Error: -2°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 14 mph
Actual
3 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
63° / 42°
Actual
69° / 32°
Error: -6°F high, 10°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 14 mph
Actual
3 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
56° / 38°
Actual
56° / 35°
Error: 0°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 15 mph
Actual
5 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
58° / 42°
Actual
57° / 43°
Error: 1°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 18 mph
Actual
6 / 17 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
57° / 41°
Actual
61° / 42°
Error: -4°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 15 mph
Actual
4 / 14 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
56° / 42°
Actual
57° / 38°
Error: -1°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 14 mph
Actual
5 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
54° / 42°
Actual
65° / 34°
Error: -11°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.01"
Actual
0.09"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 12 mph
Actual
2 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

A Bright Spring Day with Isolated Mountain Sprinkles

A robust high-pressure system will dominate the Commonwealth today, bringing dry conditions and abundant sunshine to most regions. The only exception lies in the far southeastern mountains, where a weak upper-level disturbance will trigger isolated light rain showers or sprinkles before clearing by evening.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is high for the overall dry and mild forecast for 90% of the state. Points were deducted due to model disagreement regarding light precipitation in the far southeast and minor timing differences in morning cloud clearing for the Bluegrass.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sun-Drenched and Warm
Sunny
71°/ 45°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Bright and Comfortable
Sunny
67°/ 44°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Sunny and Mild
Sunny
69°/ 43°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Clear Skies over Bowling Green
Sunny
68°/ 42°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Sunny and Pleasant
Sunny
62°/ 46°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Quiet and Bright Spring Day
Sunny
64°/ 42°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Sunny Lakeside Skies
Sunny
63°/ 42°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Crisp Morning, Sunny Afternoon
Sunny
56°/ 38°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Clouds Clearing for Sun
Sunny
58°/ 42°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Mostly Sunny and Cool
Sunny
57°/ 41°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Partly Sunny and Chilly
Cloudy
56°/ 42°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Cloudy with Isolated Sprinkles
Rain
54°/ 42°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the passing shortwave interacts with slightly deeper moisture, light rain showers could spread further north into the Bluegrass Foothills, though accumulations would remain under a tenth of an inch.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry air entrainment from the building high pressure is more aggressive, the southeastern moisture will evaporate before reaching the ground (virga), resulting in a completely dry day for the entire state.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Southeast Moisture Scuffle

A disagreement exists between the global models (Euro/GEM), which forecast a completely dry day, and the mesoscale/regional models (NAM/GFS), which resolve enough shallow moisture for light rain in the mountains.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM typically handles shallow, low-level moisture trapped in the Appalachian terrain better than coarse global models. Its thermal profile shows a saturated layer below a sharp subsidence inversion that is often missed by the Euro.

Affected Regions
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDSNORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The atmosphere features a stable profile with a developing subsidence inversion near 800mb as high pressure builds. Surface-based heating will create a dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 2km by afternoon across the west.

Thermal Boundary

The primary freezing line is well removed to the north across the Great Lakes; a weak thermal trough lingers over the eastern Kentucky coalfields.

Diurnal Trend

A standard diurnal curve is expected, with rapid warming after sunrise. Eastern regions will see a slower rise due to lingering morning cloud cover.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No active front is present; the state is positioned in the post-frontal cool-pool being modified by solar insolation.

Jet Stream Support

The jet stream is located well to the northeast, providing no significant synoptic lift. The state is under the influence of the right exit region of a departing streak.

Energy Status

A weak shortwave trough is pivoting through the southern stream, providing localized vorticity in the southeast.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is extremely dry (dewpoint depressions >20C) above 700mb statewide. Shallow saturation exists between 925mb-850mb in the eastern third of the state.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be light and stratiform (sprinkles/drizzle) in the southeast due to a lack of instability (0 CAPE).

Flooding Context

No flooding risk. The ground is dry and total precipitation will be negligible.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

N/A - Entire column is well above freezing.

Crystal Habit

N/A

Road Impact

N/A

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

12% Illumination
Moonrise
9:03 AM
Moonset
11:42 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:14 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM
Civil Dawn
6:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
8:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:40 AM
Civil Dusk
8:56 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:10 AM
Sunset
8:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:43 AM
Civil Dusk
8:56 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:06 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:39 AM
Civil Dusk
8:52 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:01 AM
Sunset
8:24 PM
Civil Dawn
6:33 AM
Civil Dusk
8:52 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:02 AM
Sunset
8:24 PM
Civil Dawn
6:35 AM
Civil Dusk
8:51 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:58 AM
Sunset
8:18 PM
Civil Dawn
6:31 AM
Civil Dusk
8:45 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:55 AM
Sunset
8:20 PM
Civil Dawn
6:27 AM
Civil Dusk
8:48 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:29 AM
Civil Dusk
8:46 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:29 AM
Civil Dusk
8:45 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:48 AM
Sunset
8:12 PM
Civil Dawn
6:21 AM
Civil Dusk
8:40 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:12 PM
Civil Dawn
6:25 AM
Civil Dusk
8:40 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.