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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Apr 18
Mon, Apr 20
Forecast For

Sunday, April 19

Updated Apr 19, 7:03 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 12:32 AM -> Apr 19, 8:45 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 12:32AM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 1:43 AM -> Apr 19, 9:45 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 1:43AM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 4:30 AM -> Apr 19, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 4:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 11:30 AM -> Apr 19, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 11:30AM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 11:53 AM -> Apr 19, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 11:53AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 11:53 AM -> Apr 19, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 11:53AM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 11:53 AM -> Apr 19, 8:00 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 11:53AM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 12:02 PM -> Apr 19, 8:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 12:02PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 12:25 PM -> Apr 19, 8:30 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 12:25PM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 12:25 PM -> Apr 19, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 12:25PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 12:41 PM -> Apr 19, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 12:41PM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 3:38 PM -> Apr 19, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 3:38PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 6:46 PM -> Apr 20, 3:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 6:46PM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 6:46 PM -> Apr 20, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 6:46PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 6:46 PM -> Apr 20, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 6:46PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Apr 19, 7:35 PM -> Apr 20, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued April 19 at 7:35PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 7:40 PM -> Apr 20, 6:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 7:40PM EDT until April 20 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Apr 19, 7:40 PM -> Apr 20, 6:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued April 19 at 7:40PM EDT until April 21 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Frost Advisory

Apr 19, 7:44 PM -> Apr 20, 5:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued April 19 at 7:44PM EDT until April 20 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Confidence
85%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, April 19, 2026.

Temperature
±3.3°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±2.95"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±6.8mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
65° / 41°
Actual
67° / 38°
Error: -2°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 22 mph
Actual
4 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 39°
Actual
66° / 34°
Error: -4°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 26 mph
Actual
6 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 41°
Actual
65° / 34°
Error: -3°F high, 7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 23 mph
Actual
5 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
62° / 40°
Actual
65° / 36°
Error: -3°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.42"
±0.42" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 23 mph
Actual
5 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
60° / 42°
Actual
61° / 39°
Error: -1°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 26 mph
Actual
8 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
60° / 40°
Actual
63° / 32°
Error: -3°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0.85"
±0.85" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 25 mph
Actual
5 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
59° / 44°
Actual
64° / 38°
Error: -5°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.03"
Actual
3.43"
±3.4000000000000004" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 23 mph
Actual
5 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
58° / 42°
Actual
60° / 36°
Error: -2°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 30 mph
Actual
6 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
58° / 41°
Actual
60° / 37°
Error: -2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
1.96"
±1.96" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 27 mph
Actual
8 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
58° / 42°
Actual
61° / 39°
Error: -3°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.03"
Actual
1.27"
±1.24" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
5 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
57° / 45°
Actual
61° / 37°
Error: -4°F high, 8°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.03"
Actual
3.03"
±3" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 28 mph
Actual
6 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
56° / 44°
Actual
63° / 41°
Error: -7°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
24.65"
±24.549999999999997" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 26 mph
Actual
4 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Morning Showers East, Becoming Sunny and Breezy Statewide

A departing shortwave trough will exit the Commonwealth early Sunday morning, leaving lingering light rain in the east before high pressure brings clearing skies and breezy conditions to the entire state by afternoon.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Strong agreement among GFS, Euro, and GEM regarding the clearing trend and temperature profiles. The primary uncertainty involves the NAM's localized precipitation outliers.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sunny and Mild
Sunny
65°/ 41°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Breezy and Clear
Sunny
62°/ 39°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Bright Spring Day
Sunny
62°/ 41°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Sunny and Pleasant
Sunny
62°/ 40°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Sunny with Afternoon Gusts
Sunny
60°/ 42°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Clearing and Breezy
Sunny
60°/ 40°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Morning Dampness, Afternoon Sun
Rain
59°/ 44°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Windy with Morning Clouds
Cloudy
58°/ 42°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Brisk and Clearing
Cloudy
58°/ 41°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Morning Showers Exit Early
Rain
58°/ 42°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Damp Start, Clearing Late
Rain
57°/ 45°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Morning Rain, Afternoon Clearing
Rain
56°/ 44°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the NAM's secondary shortwave verifies, Northern and Northeastern Kentucky could see a re-fire of light showers or sprinkles late Sunday evening, with cloud cover persisting through sunset.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry slot progged by the GFS/Euro moves faster, even the furthest eastern valleys will see full sunshine by midday with slightly warmer afternoon highs.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Secondary Wave Dispute

The NAM suggests a secondary moisture-starved impulse will trigger evening showers in Northern/Northeast KY, while the GFS, Euro, and GEM show rapid drying and high-pressure dominance.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

Global models show a much stronger subsidence signal and dry-air entrainment behind the primary trough, likely suppressing the NAM's weaker secondary impulse.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYNORTHEAST KY

Western Kentucky Morning Precip

The NAM forecasts a quick burst of rain for the Purchase area between 12Z-15Z, whereas the global models keep the western half of the state completely dry.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the global models are likely correct on the dry trend, the NAM's ability to resolve small-scale morning ripples warrants a low-end PoP mention but a dry 'Condition' outcome.

Affected Regions
PURCHASE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

Standard post-frontal cool-sector profile with a moist-adiabatic layer in the east transitioning to a dry-adiabatic lapse rate state-wide by afternoon.

Thermal Boundary

The freezing line remains well north of the Ohio River; the primary thermal boundary is the exiting cold front pushing east of the Big Sandy by 15Z.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal curve with robust warming in the West; Eastern regions will see a muted curve due to morning clouds and cold air advection (CAA).

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Cold front clears the state by 12Z-15Z, evidenced by a sharp wind shift to the northwest and rising surface pressures.

Jet Stream Support

Right exit region of a 110kt 300mb jet streak provides subsidence and helps clear skies from west to east.

Energy Status

A de-amplifying shortwave trough is the primary driver, with its axis shifting into Virginia by mid-morning.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Column-wide drying is aggressive; dewpoint depressions reaching 15-20F by late afternoon across the central corridor.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be light and stratiform, primarily morning drizzle or light showers in the east.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic risk; QPF totals are negligible (under 0.20 inches).

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

6% Illumination
Moonrise
8:14 AM
Moonset
10:26 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:15 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:48 AM
Civil Dusk
9:00 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:08 AM
Sunset
8:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:41 AM
Civil Dusk
8:55 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:11 AM
Sunset
8:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:44 AM
Civil Dusk
8:55 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
8:24 PM
Civil Dawn
6:40 AM
Civil Dusk
8:51 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:02 AM
Sunset
8:23 PM
Civil Dawn
6:35 AM
Civil Dusk
8:51 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:23 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
8:50 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:32 AM
Civil Dusk
8:44 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:28 AM
Civil Dusk
8:47 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:58 AM
Sunset
8:18 PM
Civil Dawn
6:30 AM
Civil Dusk
8:45 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:57 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:30 AM
Civil Dusk
8:44 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
8:11 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
8:39 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:54 AM
Sunset
8:11 PM
Civil Dawn
6:26 AM
Civil Dusk
8:39 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.