Monday, April 6
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 12:35PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 12:43PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 32 degrees will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frost is most likely in sheltered valleys. Additionally, frost or freeze statements may be needed for Monday night and Tuesday night.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 1:22PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 2:11PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 7:04PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Frost is expected for much of the area. It will be most widespread in valleys, where low temperatures around 30 degrees are forecast.
WHERE The Frost Advisory is for portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN The Frost Advisory is from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm or kill outdoor plants which are sensitive to the cold. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frost or freezing temperatures will also be possible Monday and Tuesday nights, especially in valleys.
Take steps now to protect plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 8:33PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 1:14AM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN Until 10 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 2:41AM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Frost is expected to develop across much of the area. It will be most prevalent in valleys, where temperatures should bottom out in the low 30s around dawn.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until 10 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Frost could harm or kill outdoor plants which are sensitive to the cold.
Take steps now to protect plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 2:41AM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures in the middle 30s will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN Until 10 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 3:23AM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN Until 10 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued April 6 at 12:18PM EDT until April 7 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued April 6 at 12:24PM EDT until April 7 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 12:38PM EDT until April 7 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 31 degrees will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freeze conditions are also possible in the coldest locations, but are not expected to be widespread.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 1:20PM EDT until April 7 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 31 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of Indiana and east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Tuesday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, April 6, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
A Bright, Breezy, and Beautiful Spring Monday
High pressure will dominate the Commonwealth today, providing abundant sunshine and a significant afternoon warm-up. While a lone model suggests a stray shower, the overwhelming consensus points to a dry, pleasant day with gusty afternoon winds.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the dry forecast and temperature trends due to strong agreement among 3 of the 4 major models. The only uncertainty lies in the lone NAM outlier for rain and exact peak wind gust speeds.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful, sunny day as temperatures climb into the upper 60s. A light breeze from the southwest will make for a perfect afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Plenty of sunshine will take temperatures from a chilly morning to a mild afternoon. Winds will be slightly gusty near the Ohio River.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very nice spring day with highs nearing 68 degrees under clear skies. Southerly winds will pick up after lunch.
Barren River
Bowling Green will see plenty of sun and comfortable 60s for the afternoon. Expect a few gusts to 20 mph during the peak of the day.
Louisville Metro
A bright Monday for the city. It will be breezy with afternoon gusts reaching 25 mph. Highs will be comfortable in the mid-60s.
Lincoln Trail
Grab a jacket early, but you will not need it by the afternoon as sun warms the area. Expect a high of 63 degrees.
Lake Cumberland
Ideal weather for the lake with full sunshine and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds will pick up a bit in the afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a bright and sunny day with a high near 60 degrees. A few clouds may drift in late, but dry conditions will prevail.
Inner Bluegrass
A sunny day in Lexington, but hold onto your hat as gusts reach 30 mph. Highs will be around 62 degrees.
Bluegrass Foothills
Enjoy a bright spring day with highs in the lower 60s. Afternoon breezes will be noticeable.
Northeast Kentucky
After some early morning clouds, the sun will take over for the rest of the day. Highs will reach the low 60s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a calm, sunny day in the mountains with pleasant temperatures. Any morning fog will burn off quickly.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the ridge is slightly weaker and the NAM's aggressive moisture return verifies, a few light morning showers could clip the far western Purchase, with a stray sprinkle in Northern Kentucky late tonight.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air is even more robust than forecast, dew points could drop into the 20s, leading to a slightly higher fire weather risk given the afternoon wind gusts, though temperatures would still reach the mid-60s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Mixing Height Matchup
Disagreement exists on the magnitude of afternoon wind gusts. GEM and NAM suggest gusts to 30 mph, while the Euro is much more conservative.
Why GEM Wins
GEM's boundary layer physics often better capture momentum transfer in well-mixed, dry-adiabatic environments. Surface-to-850mb lapse rates support 25-30 mph gusts.
The Phantom Moisture Feud
The NAM is an isolated outlier, attempting to bring light measurable rain to the Purchase and Northern KY, while the GFS, Euro, and GEM remain bone dry.
Why EURO Wins
Global models better resolve the synoptic-scale subsidence provided by the building ridge and the right-entrance region of the northern jet streak. NAM's moisture appears overdone given the high dewpoint depressions.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.