Sunday, April 5
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued April 4 at 9:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 944 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of gusty showers extending from Sandy Hook to Burkhart to Portsmouth to near Hosea. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Hazard, Paintsville, West Liberty, Jackson, Salyersville, Sandy Hook, Hyden, Mason, Simpson, Lewis, Buckhorn, Buck, Florress, Emmalena, Falcon, Bearville, Noctor, Collista, West Royalton Station, and Redbush. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 60 and 76. Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 37 and 59. Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 1 and 5. Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 9 and 15. U.S. Highway 23 in Johnson County between mile markers 1 and 11, and near mile marker 13.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued April 4 at 9:48PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 947 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of gusty showers extending from Marcum to near Ashers Fork to Erose to Blanche to near Wilkerson. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Hazard, Harlan, Pineville, Hindman, Hyden, Middlesboro, Letcher, Cumberland, Loyall, Evarts, Vicco, Wallins Creek, Blackey, Elic, Big Fork, Cody, Varilla, Coldiron, Black Snake, and Blanche. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 36 and 57. U.S. Highway 25 East in Bell County between mile markers 1 and 18. U.S. Highway 25 East in Knox County between mile markers 1 and 3.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 12:35PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 12:43PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 32 degrees will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frost is most likely in sheltered valleys. Additionally, frost or freeze statements may be needed for Monday night and Tuesday night.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 1:22PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 2:11PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures as low as 32 will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 7:04PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Frost is expected for much of the area. It will be most widespread in valleys, where low temperatures around 30 degrees are forecast.
WHERE The Frost Advisory is for portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN The Frost Advisory is from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm or kill outdoor plants which are sensitive to the cold. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Frost or freezing temperatures will also be possible Monday and Tuesday nights, especially in valleys.
Take steps now to protect plants from the cold.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, April 5, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Showers Exit East; Clearing Skies and Breezy Today
A weakening cold front and associated shortwave trough will depart the Commonwealth this morning. Rain showers will persist across Central and Eastern Kentucky through the early afternoon hours, with the highest totals localized in the Southeast Coalfields. Rapid clearing is expected from west to east, with high pressure bringing a sunnier and stable afternoon statewide. Temperatures will remain seasonable, generally in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Confidence Assessment
Extremely high agreement between all major models regarding the timing of the frontal passage, the absence of wintry precipitation, and the overall synoptic evolution. Minor uncertainty remains only in localized rainfall totals in the far east.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
A beautiful spring day is in store for the Purchase region. Skies will be clear from the start, and temperatures will climb into the upper 50s. Expect light winds and very comfortable conditions for any outdoor plans.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a sunny day with temperatures reaching the upper 50s. It will be a bit breezy at times as high pressure builds in from the west.
Southwest Pennyrile
Abundant sunshine will be the rule today for Hopkinsville and surrounding areas. Temperatures will be mild and the air will be dry.
Barren River
A stray light shower or drizzle is possible before 7:00 AM. After that, skies will clear rapidly, leading to a sunny afternoon.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will start the day with a thick layer of clouds, but the sun should break through by early afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-50s.
Lincoln Trail
Morning clouds will slowly give way to afternoon sunshine. It will be a breezy day with gusts up to 24 mph.
Lake Cumberland
Expect steady rain through the morning hours, with accumulations around 0.3 inches. The rain will taper off by midday, followed by late-day sun.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a cooler day for Northern Kentucky. Clouds will likely hang around through most of the day, with highs only reaching the low 50s.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain showers will exit by the morning commute. The rest of the day will be breezy and becoming sunny, with highs in the mid-50s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will linger through mid-morning before skies begin to clear. Expect around 0.15 inches of rain before it exits.
Northeast Kentucky
Steady rain will fall through the morning hours in Ashland and Morehead. Clouds will stay stubborn through the afternoon, though some sun is possible late.
Southeast Kentucky
A very wet morning is expected with rain totals around 0.65 inches. The rain will be heavy at times before ending in the early afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the trough axis slows or a secondary vorticity lobe develops, rain and thick cloud cover could linger in the eastern valleys through sunset, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A faster-moving dry slot could scour out all clouds by mid-morning, leading to full afternoon sunshine and temperatures overperforming into the lower 60s for the I-65 corridor.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Orographic Squeeze
A significant disagreement exists regarding rainfall totals in the Southeast Coalfields. The GEM and ECMWF are aggressive with moisture transport, while the NAM is much drier, suggesting the terrain will disrupt the moisture plume too early.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM typically handles the enhancement of precipitation on windward slopes (orographic lift) more accurately than the coarser-resolution global models or the often-drier NAM in post-frontal setups.
The Low-Level Cloud Trap
Models differ on how quickly the post-frontal stratocumulus deck will break. The GFS is aggressive with a total clear-out, while the NAM suggests a subsidence inversion will trap moisture longer near the Ohio River.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM soundings show a more realistic representation of the 850mb subsidence inversion, which frequently delays clearing in the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky regions during spring cold frontal passages.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.