Wednesday, April 1
Soggy Start to April as Widespread Rain Overspreads Kentucky
A damp and mild weather pattern will take hold for the first day of April. High pressure is expected to retreat eastward, allowing a plume of deep Gulf moisture to surge into the Ohio Valley. This will result in widespread stratiform rain across the Commonwealth, with the highest totals focused along the Ohio River. While the day will be wet, unseasonably mild temperatures will persist, with afternoon highs climbing into the low 70s.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is low due to the extreme disagreement between the global models at day 6. A 15-degree temperature spread and a 'Rain vs. Sun' conflict represent a high-volatility forecast.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a wet day with steady rain showers throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will be unseasonably mild with highs near 73 degrees.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will be persistent, especially along the Ohio River, where accumulations could approach half an inch.
Southwest Pennyrile
While not a total washout, expect several rounds of light rain amidst very warm and humid conditions.
Barren River
A warm, breezy day is in store with light rain showers common throughout the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-70s.
Louisville Metro
A very damp day for Louisville with steady rain likely from midday through the evening hours. Expect around half an inch of rain.
Lincoln Trail
Cloudy skies and consistent light rain will define the day. It will remain warm with highs in the mid-70s.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be lighter and more scattered in the Lake Cumberland area compared to the north, but umbrellas will still be needed.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will likely see the steadiest and heaviest rain in the state, with accumulations around 0.75 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and surrounding areas will see rain develop in the morning and persist through much of the afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
A mostly cloudy day with intermittent rain showers. Rainfall amounts will generally be light, around 0.15 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be scattered across the northeast, but temperatures will push well into the 70s as warm air surges ahead of the rain.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay mostly dry for the first half of the day before light rain showers arrive in the late afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level ridging favored by the GEM verifies more strongly, the rain would be suppressed to the north, allowing for a breezy, summer-like day with highs reaching the low 80s and minimal cloud cover.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the moisture plume is deeper and evaporative cooling is maximized as suggested by the ECMWF, the state could face a total washout with temperatures struggling to break 65 degrees under heavy cloud cover and persistent rain.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Great Moisture Divide
A stark disagreement exists between the ECMWF and GEM regarding the presence of a mid-level ridge. The ECMWF brings a saturated column and widespread rain, while the GEM maintains a bone-dry atmosphere with zero precipitation.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF typically handles synoptic moisture return and isentropic lift more reliably than the GEM in the 5-7 day range. Given the transition into a spring-time pattern, the 'Steady Hand' of the Euro is favored over the GEM's aggressive ridging.
Thermal Amplitude Conflict
Models are 10-15 degrees apart on high temperatures. The GEM predicts near-record heat in the 80s, while the ECMWF keeps temps in the low 70s due to rain and cloud cover.
Why EURO Wins
Widespread cloud cover and precipitation will likely act as a ceiling for daytime heating. Even with strong warm air advection, the lack of insolation makes the GEM's 85-degree forecast unlikely.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.