Tuesday, March 31
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 31 at 12:55AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Widespread elevated fire danger is anticipated today across the region during peak heating. Sustained winds between 10 to 20 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph along with very dry fuels are the main concerns. Isolated gusts in excess of 35+ mph are also possible. While minimum RH values this afternoon will range from 28 to 38% across the region above critical values, the continued very dry fuels combined with increased winds will make it possible for wildfires to ignite and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Gusty winds will blow around objects left unsecured.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, March 31, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Early Summer Warmth with Passing Morning Sprinkles
Kentucky will remain firmly entrenched in a broad warm sector this Tuesday, featuring unseasonably high temperatures and gusty south winds. A weak, moisture-starved shortwave will traverse the Commonwealth, bringing a high probability of light rain and sprinkles to central and northern regions during the morning hours, though significant dry air in the low-levels will limit actual accumulation.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is very high for unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty winds, but remains moderate for the timing and actual measurable liquid totals of the passing light rain showers.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful and very warm day with plenty of sunshine and no rain. Highs will reach the low 80s with gusty south winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
Mostly sunny and very warm conditions are expected. Winds will be gusty at times, but the day will remain dry.
Southwest Pennyrile
Very warm temperatures near 82 degrees with gusty winds. Skies will clear out quickly in the afternoon.
Barren River
Highs will reach the low 80s under sunny skies. Gusts up to 37 mph are likely, so secure loose items.
Louisville Metro
A few light showers are possible during the morning commute, but skies will clear for a very warm afternoon with highs near 80.
Lincoln Trail
Expect clouds and a slight chance of morning sprinkles, giving way to sunshine and highs in the upper 70s.
Lake Cumberland
Cloudy morning skies will clear by the afternoon. Highs will be around 79 degrees with breezy conditions.
Northern Kentucky
Mostly cloudy and breezy with highs near 80. A few sprinkles are possible, but most areas will stay dry.
Inner Bluegrass
Light rain is possible this morning in Lexington. It will be a windy day with temperatures reaching the upper 70s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy skies and gusty winds will dominate. A stray morning shower is possible, followed by a warm afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect light rain showers to move through during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-70s with gusty winds.
Southeast Kentucky
Clouds will clear by afternoon, allowing temperatures to reach the upper 70s. It will be breezy but generally dry.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
Faster clearing of morning clouds and more efficient boundary layer mixing allows temperatures to surge into the mid-80s, potentially breaking records in Western Kentucky.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Slower movement of the shortwave and deeper low-level saturation result in persistent cloud cover and light rain through the afternoon, keeping highs capped in the low 70s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Vanquisher
A significant disagreement exists between the NAM/Euro and the GFS/GEM regarding precipitation timing and existence. The NAM and Euro suggest a morning window of light rain for central KY, while the GFS delays moisture arrival until evening, and the GEM remains entirely dry.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides the best compromise between the high-resolution NAM's moisture precision and the synoptic timing of the global models. Its representation of top-heavy moisture leading to virga is physically consistent with the high dewpoint depressions seen in soundings.
Thermal Peak Battle
The GEM is an aggressive outlier, forecasting mid-80s across the state, while the GFS and NAM maintain upper 70s due to cloud cover.
Why BLEND Wins
The GEM likely under-represents the impact of mid-level cloudiness associated with the passing shortwave. A blend of GFS/NAM temperatures is more realistic given the expected sky cover.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.