Tuesday, March 31
Late March Warmth with Scattered Morning Showers
A surge of unseasonably warm air will bring late-spring temperatures to Kentucky on Tuesday, accompanied by a brief window of morning rain showers and gusty afternoon winds.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the unseasonable warmth (80s) and the timing of the morning rain shield, though minor uncertainty remains regarding exact rainfall accumulations due to mid-level dry air.
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Purchase Area
Any early morning clouds will clear quickly, leaving the Purchase area with a beautiful but breezy afternoon. Temperatures will reach the low 80s, feeling much more like May than March. Wind gusts could reach 30 mph at times, so be prepared for a steady southwesterly blow through sunset.
Northwest Pennyrile
A brief period of light rain is possible before dawn, but skies will clear rapidly by the morning commute. The rest of the day will be sunny and unseasonably warm. Expect afternoon highs to reach the low 80s with gusty winds.
Southwest Pennyrile
A dry and very warm day is expected. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures soaring into the mid-80s in some locations. Winds will be active out of the southwest, making for a pleasant but windy afternoon.
Barren River
The 'Snow Eater' bowl will live up to its name as temperatures climb into the mid-80s under sunny skies. Rain is not expected in this region. Afternoon wind gusts will make it feel like a late spring day.
Louisville Metro
Rain showers are likely before sunrise, potentially lingering into the early morning commute. Roads may be damp early, but skies will clear by midday. The afternoon will be sunny, warm, and windy with temperatures near 80 degrees.
Lincoln Trail
A few light showers are possible early in the morning, but the focus for the day will be the unseasonable warmth and afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will reach the low 80s with wind gusts up to 30 mph.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a few sprinkles or light showers during the morning hours. Clouds will break by the afternoon, leading to a very pleasant day near the lake. Highs will be in the upper 70s with a steady breeze.
Northern Kentucky
Rain is likely through the morning commute, potentially lasting until lunch. Skies will clear in the afternoon, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 70s. It will be a windy finish to the day with gusts near 30 mph.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect rain showers throughout the morning, leaving roads wet for the commute. The rain will exit by midday, followed by a warm and windy afternoon. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s with gusts to 28 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
A few showers will move through during the morning hours. By afternoon, skies will clear and temperatures will become unseasonably warm. Highs will approach 80 degrees with gusty southwest winds.
Northeast Kentucky
This region will likely see the most rain in the state, with steady showers lasting through the morning. Skies will eventually clear by late afternoon. Expect a warm finish to the day with temperatures in the mid-70s.
Southeast Kentucky
Morning rain showers will move through the mountains, leaving some dampness early in the day. Clouds will linger longer here, but the sun should break through by late afternoon. Temperatures will be unseasonably mild, reaching the mid-70s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the morning moisture axis slows down and couples with slightly higher instability, rainfall totals could reach 0.50 inches in Eastern Kentucky, with afternoon wind gusts exceeding 35 mph as mixing depths maximize.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air is more aggressive, precipitation may fall as virga, leaving much of the state dry. Additionally, if low-level cloud cover persists longer than expected, high temperatures may stay in the low 70s rather than reaching the 80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Starvation Standoff
Models disagree on the intensity of morning precipitation. The GEM shows a more saturated profile capable of producing measurable rain (0.10-0.25"), while the ECMWF suggests significant sub-cloud drying will lead to mostly trace amounts or virga.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM typically handles the moisture transport within a low-level jet (LLJ) better in pre-frontal regimes, whereas the ECMWF can occasionally over-attenuate light stratiform rain in high-WAA environments.
Afternoon Mixing Intensity
Conflict regarding the magnitude of afternoon wind gusts following the rain exit. GEM forecasts gusts near 30 mph due to deep mixing, while the ECMWF is more conservative at 20 mph.
Why GEM Wins
Given the projected 850mb wind speeds and rapid clearing, deep boundary layer mixing is a high-probability outcome for late March in Kentucky.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.