Thursday, April 2
Warm, Windy, and Wet Conditions Sweep Across Kentucky
A potent spring storm system will bring unseasonably warm temperatures, gusty winds, and widespread rain to the Commonwealth. Heaviest rainfall is expected in Western and Northern Kentucky, while the Southeast remains warmest and driest for most of the day.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a warm and windy day, but significant model disagreement on rainfall totals and the speed of moisture return lowers overall forecast certainty.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a very wet day across the Purchase area with rain occurring almost continuously. Total accumulations will likely reach around 1.2 inches. Winds will be gusty throughout the day, making it feel quite blustery even with mild temperatures in the low 70s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very wet day is in store for Owensboro and Henderson. Rainfall totals around 1.3 inches are expected, accompanied by wind gusts near 40 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
Showers will be common today, though totals will be lighter than further north. Expect accumulations around 0.5 inches with very warm conditions.
Barren River
Bowling Green will reach the upper 70s today. While it will be windy and cloudy, most of the rain will hold off until late afternoon or evening.
Louisville Metro
Expect a soggy day in Louisville with rainfall around 1.0 inch. The evening commute could be impacted by steadier rain and gusty winds.
Lincoln Trail
Highs will reach the mid-70s with gusty winds and passing showers. Accumulations will stay around 0.5 inches.
Lake Cumberland
Temperatures will reach the upper 70s today. Rain will be very light and spotty, primarily occurring late this evening.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a wet day in Covington and Newport with rainfall around 1.1 inches. Winds will gust over 30 mph at times.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see unseasonably warm temps in the mid-70s. Rain showers will be scattered, with totals around 0.4 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
A warm day with highs near 78. Expect a few light showers, but much of the day will remain dry and breezy.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland will reach the low 80s today. Rain chances are low until tonight, with only spotty light showers expected.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful and warm day for Hazard and Pikeville with highs around 80. Rainfall will be very limited and spotty.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the ECMWF's deep moisture profile fully synchronizes with the GEM's higher wind energy, we could see widespread 2-inch rainfall totals in the west with wind gusts exceeding 45 mph, potentially leading to minor flooding and localized wind damage.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the GEM's dry-slot and virga projections verify, the state would see unseasonably hot temperatures in the 80s with only scattered light showers, leaving much of the Bluegrass and Eastern Kentucky dry.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Magnitude War
A major conflict exists between the ECMWF and GEM regarding rainfall totals. The ECMWF suggests a saturated column producing over 1.5 inches of rain in the west, while the GEM shows significant dry air (virga risk) limiting totals to less than 0.5 inches.
Why EURO Wins
Synoptic setup with a stalled front and strong jet support typically overcomes mid-level dry air in early April; the ECMWF's PWAT projections are more climatologically sound for this pattern.
Boundary Layer Mixing Conflict
The GEM is significantly more aggressive with surface wind gusts (40+ mph) and high temperatures (80s), whereas the ECMWF keeps conditions more stable and mild.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM traditionally handles the warm-sector momentum transfer and low-level jet mixing better than the global ECMWF in pre-frontal spring environments.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.