Monday, March 30
Warm and Breezy West, Damp and Cloudy North and East
A split weather pattern will define the day across Kentucky. Western and South-Central regions will experience a warm, breezy spring day with highs in the 70s. Meanwhile, a weak atmospheric boundary will keep Northern and Eastern Kentucky under cloud cover with periods of light rain and drizzle.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall temperature gradient and the light nature of precipitation. Lower confidence on the exact southern extent of the rain/virga line near the Central Kentucky knobs.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful and very warm day with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s, which is well above normal for late March. It will be breezy at times, so secure light outdoor items.
Northwest Pennyrile
A warm and pleasant start to the day will give way to increasing clouds by the afternoon. While a stray sprinkle is possible late, most areas will stay dry with highs in the mid-70s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Highs will reach the mid-70s under a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be noticeable but will help push temperatures higher throughout the afternoon.
Barren River
Temperatures will climb into the low 70s today. Clouds will increase as the day progresses, and wind gusts up to 32 mph are likely by midday.
Louisville Metro
Expect a damp day with periods of light rain and drizzle, especially during the morning and evening. Total rainfall will be around 0.04 inches, so roads may be slick but no heavy rain is expected.
Lincoln Trail
It will be a gray day with clouds dominating the sky. A few light showers are possible throughout the day, though many areas will only see a brief sprinkle. Highs will be near 70 degrees.
Lake Cumberland
Light rain showers will move through the area during the day. It won't be a total washout, but a damp feel will persist with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s.
Northern Kentucky
Keep the umbrella handy today. Periodic light rain and overcast skies will keep temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s. Total rainfall around 0.08 inches is expected.
Inner Bluegrass
A damp Monday is in store for the Lexington area. Expect light rain showers to occur off and on throughout the day, totaling about 0.08 inches. Temperatures will stay in the 60s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds will hang low over the foothills today with light rain occurring at various times. It will be a cool and damp day with highs in the mid-60s.
Northeast Kentucky
Northeast Kentucky will see the most consistent rain today. Expect around 0.12 inches of accumulation. It will be a cool day with highs staying in the low-to-mid 60s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a cloudy day with light rain or drizzle developing by the afternoon. Valleys may see some fog during the morning hours. Highs will be in the mid-60s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level shortwave trends deeper and faster, the moisture plume could saturate the column more effectively, bringing measurable light rain (0.10"-0.25") further south into the Pennyrile and Lake Cumberland regions.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry slot in the 850-700mb layer is more robust as suggested by the GFS, most of the light rain will evaporate before reaching the ground, leaving the state primarily dry and even warmer than currently forecast.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Dry Slot Struggle
The ECMWF is aggressively spreading light precipitation (0.01-0.03") into the Purchase and Pennyrile regions, whereas the GFS and GEM maintain a stark cutoff, keeping the west entirely dry.
Why GEM Wins
Forecast soundings show significant dewpoint depressions below 700mb in Western KY. The GEM's resolution of the dry slot is more physically consistent with the lack of strong forcing to overcome this evaporation potential.
The Warm Sector Ceiling
Models are struggling with the magnitude of diurnal heating in the west under strong southwesterly flow. GEM forecasts highs near 80, while GFS remains in the low 70s.
Why GEM Wins
Strong 850mb warm air advection and high solar insolation in the cloud-free western sector favor the warmer GEM solution over the GFS, which typically under-forecasts warm-sector temperatures in these setups.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.