Sunday, March 29
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 28 at 9:49AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Low to very low humidities and very dry fuels will combine to result in Elevated Fire Danger through this evening. Humidities will recover an hour or two after sunset, alleviating the threat tonight. However, low humidities and dry fuels are also expected on Sunday, and frequent wind gusts into the 15 to 25 mph range between 10 AM and around sunset will result in High Fire Danger. A burn band in currently in place for McCreary County. Check for any other county burn bans or restrictions that may be in place. Remember, that Kentucky regulations make it illegal to burn between the hours of 6 AM and 6 PM within 150 feet of an woodland or brushland during the Spring Forest Fire Season that runs until April 30th.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 28 at 10:05AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Low to very low humidities and dry fuels will combine to result in elevated fire danger through this evening. Humidities will recover an hour or two after sunset, alleviating the threat tonight. Remember, Kentucky regulations make it illegal to burn between the hours of 6 AM and 6 PM within 150 feet of a woodland or brushland during the Spring Forest Fire Season that runs until April 30th.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 1:08PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The lowest temperatures will be across the typical valley cold spots.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent water pipes from freezing; wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 1:52PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s expected.
WHERE Bourbon, Harrison KY, and Nicholas Counties.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued March 28 at 1:52PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures in the lower 30s will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 29 at 1:56AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
A combination of dry vegetation, relative humidity lowering to around 20 to 25% and winds gusting to around 15 to 20 mph will result in increased fire danger today. Residents and visitors are urged to properly dispose of cigarette butts, matches, and any other flammable items in appropriate containers. Additionally, exercise caution if operating any equipment that could create sparks and keep vehicles off of dry grass. Most dry grasses, dead leaves, and other tree litter could easily ignite and spread fire quickly. Kentucky law prohibits burning in the spring from 6AM to 6PM...February 15th through April 30th.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 29 at 10:56AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Low to very low humidity, gusty winds, and very dry fuels will combine to result in High Fire Danger through a couple of hours past sunset today. A burn ban is currently in place for McCreary County. Check for any other county burn bans or restrictions that may be in place. Remember, Kentucky regulations make it illegal to burn between the hours of 6 AM and 6 PM within 150 feet of any woodlands or brushlands during the Spring Forest Fire Season that runs until April 30th.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 29 at 11:54AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
A combination of dry vegetation, relative humidity lowering to 20 to 25 percent and winds gusting to 15 to 25 mph will result in increased fire danger today. Residents and visitors are urged to properly dispose of cigarette butts, matches, and any other flammable items in appropriate containers. Additionally, exercise caution if operating any equipment that could create sparks and keep vehicles off of dry grass. Most dry grasses, dead leaves, and other tree litter could easily ignite and spread fire quickly.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, March 29, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Breezy Spring Warm-up with Late Evening Sprinkles North
A significant warming trend will take hold across the Commonwealth today as high pressure shifts toward the Atlantic coast and southerly flow intensifies. While most of the state will enjoy sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the mid-to-upper 60s, a weak, moisture-starved cold front will approach the Ohio River late this evening, bringing an increase in cloud cover and a few light sprinkles to northern counties.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the statewide temperature warm-up and breezy conditions. The only minor uncertainty stems from the exact southern extent of sprinkles along the Ohio River late this evening.
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Purchase Area
The Purchase region will be the warmest spot in Kentucky today, with temperatures soaring into the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. Expect breezy conditions to develop by the afternoon, with southerly winds gusting up to 30 mph.
Northwest Pennyrile
A beautiful spring day is in store for Owensboro and Henderson, with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70. Winds will be noticeable, occasionally gusting over 30 mph during the afternoon hours.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect clear blue skies and very pleasant temperatures in the low 70s. Southerly winds will increase through the day, making for a breezy afternoon.
Barren River
After a cool start, temperatures will recover quickly to around 70 degrees. Hold onto your hats, as wind gusts could reach 35 mph this afternoon.
Louisville Metro
A very pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s will give way to increasing clouds by sunset. A few light sprinkles or a brief rain shower are possible late tonight, but no significant rain is expected.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a bright day with temperatures reaching the upper 60s. Wind gusts along the ridges may reach 35 mph, so secure any loose outdoor furniture.
Lake Cumberland
A perfect day for the lake with sunshine and highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Winds will be lighter here than in western Kentucky, but still breezy at times.
Northern Kentucky
After a chilly start near freezing, temperatures will warm nicely into the mid-60s. Clouds will thicken tonight with a 50% chance of light rain showers or sprinkles after 8 PM.
Inner Bluegrass
A great day for outdoor activities in the Lexington area with highs in the mid-60s. Clouds will increase late in the evening, but rain chances remain very low.
Bluegrass Foothills
Temperatures will start near freezing but climb to a comfortable 65 degrees by afternoon. Clear skies will persist for most of the day with a light southerly breeze.
Northeast Kentucky
A sunny and calm day with temperatures reaching the upper 60s by mid-afternoon. Expect a wide temperature swing from a cold morning to a very mild finish.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful spring day across the mountains with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid-60s. Winds will be much calmer here compared to the western half of the state.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level dry air is scoured out more efficiently and the shortwave digs slightly further south, light measurable rain could extend as far south as the Bluegrass Parkway with totals nearing 0.05 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air remains as potent as the NAM suggests, even the northern border remains completely dry, with only mid-level cloudiness marking the frontal passage.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Variance
The GFS and Euro show light precipitation reaching the ground in Northern Kentucky, while the NAM and GEM maintain a completely dry column due to significant dewpoint depressions below 8,000 feet.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a realistic middle ground, acknowledging the synoptic forcing for light sprinkles/virga while correctly keeping QPF values near zero due to the sub-cloud dry layer.
The Thermal Ridge Peak
The GEM and Euro are notably more aggressive with the afternoon warm-up, pushing highs into the low 70s in the west, whereas the GFS and NAM are more conservative with mid-to-upper 60s.
Why GEM Wins
In strong southwesterly return-flow setups with clear skies, global models like the GEM often better capture the magnitude of advective warming.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.