Saturday, March 28
Brisk, Sunny Saturday Follows Chilly Morning Frost
High pressure will dominate the Commonwealth on Saturday, providing a dry and bright day across all 12 regions. Residents should prepare for a cold, frosty morning with temperatures near or below freezing, followed by a sunny afternoon with highs reaching the 40s and 50s. Brisk morning winds will gradually subside by the evening hours.
Confidence Assessment
Extremely high agreement among all major global and mesoscale models regarding the dry airmass and building high pressure. The only minor variables are exact morning lows and the magnitude of morning wind gusts.
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Purchase Area
Residents in Paducah and Mayfield will see the warmest conditions in the state. Expect full sunshine with highs reaching the mid-50s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A chilly morning start near freezing will give way to a beautiful, clear afternoon with highs in the lower 50s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a windy start with gusts over 25 mph before noon. The afternoon will be calm and sunny with highs in the mid-50s.
Barren River
Frost is likely early Saturday as temperatures hit the freezing mark. Sunshine will prevail all day with a high of 53.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will enjoy a bright but cool Saturday. After a morning low around 31, temperatures will reach the lower 50s.
Lincoln Trail
A frosty start for E-town and surrounding areas. The afternoon will stay clear and cool with a high near 50.
Lake Cumberland
A very cold morning at 31 degrees. Winds will be breezy early, but will settle for a pleasant, sunny afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will stay chilly today. Expect morning temperatures in the 20s and afternoon highs in the mid-40s despite full sun.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a very cold start in the upper 20s with morning gusts making it feel even colder. Full sun all afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a freezing start to Saturday. The rest of the day will be calm and bright with highs in the upper 40s.
Northeast Kentucky
A few sprinkles or light drizzle are possible very early, but the clouds will break quickly for a sunny and cool afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Stubborn clouds may linger in the valleys early Saturday morning, but sunshine will prevail for a quiet spring afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the surface high centers more quickly and cloud cover in the east remains non-existent, solar insolation could push western Kentucky into the low 60s and central regions into the mid-50s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the 850mb cold pool lingers or if morning stratocumulus traps cold air in the eastern valleys (as hinted by the GEM), highs in the Coalfields and Northeast may struggle to climb out of the low 40s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Transfer Tug-of-War
The NAM, GFS, and GEM show significant morning wind gusts (25-32 mph) as the 850mb jet mixes to the surface, while the Euro remains much calmer with light winds. Given the tight pressure gradient on the leading edge of a 1030mb high, the calmer Euro solution is likely an outlier.
Why BLEND Wins
The NAM and GFS better resolve the mechanical mixing potential within the post-frontal boundary layer during the first 6 hours of the forecast.
Northeast Kentucky Moisture Trapping
The GEM suggests enough low-level moisture remains trapped below the 850mb inversion to produce trace drizzle or virga in the Northeast early Saturday. Other models show a completely scoured-out column.
Why GEM Wins
GEM typically excels at identifying shallow moisture layers trapped by building high pressure in the complex terrain of the Appalachian foothills.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.