kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Mar 27
Sun, Mar 29
Forecast For

Saturday, March 28

Updated Mar 28, 7:00 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Freeze Warning

Mar 27, 11:44 AM -> Mar 28, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 11:44AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Warning

Mar 27, 12:49 PM -> Mar 28, 1:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 11:49AM CDT until March 28 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Freeze Warning

Mar 27, 1:57 PM -> Mar 27, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 1:57PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Watch

Mar 27, 1:57 PM -> Mar 27, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 1:57PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Warning

Mar 27, 2:37 PM -> Mar 28, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 2:37PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Freeze Warning

Mar 27, 4:04 PM -> Mar 28, 6:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Warning

Mar 27, 4:04 PM -> Mar 28, 6:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Mar 27, 4:04 PM -> Mar 28, 6:15 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Mar 27, 9:03 PM -> Mar 28, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 9:03PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Warning

Mar 27, 9:03 PM -> Mar 28, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 9:03PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Warning

Mar 28, 1:52 AM -> Mar 28, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 12:52AM CDT until March 28 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Freeze Watch

Mar 28, 2:48 AM -> Mar 28, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued March 28 at 2:48AM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Warning

Mar 28, 2:48 AM -> Mar 28, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 2:48AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Warning

Mar 28, 2:55 AM -> Mar 28, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 2:55AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Mar 28, 2:55 AM -> Mar 28, 10:00 AM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued March 28 at 2:55AM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Warning

Mar 28, 2:55 AM -> Mar 28, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 2:55AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 28, 9:49 AM -> Mar 28, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 28 at 9:49AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Freeze Watch

Mar 28, 10:03 AM -> Mar 28, 6:15 PM
Severe Severity

Freeze Watch issued March 28 at 10:03AM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 28, 10:05 AM -> Mar 28, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 28 at 10:05AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Freeze Warning

Mar 28, 1:08 PM -> Mar 28, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 1:08PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Frost Advisory

Mar 28, 1:52 PM -> Mar 29, 4:00 AM
Minor Severity

Frost Advisory issued March 28 at 1:52PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Freeze Warning

Mar 28, 1:52 PM -> Mar 29, 4:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 1:52PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Confidence
90%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, March 28, 2026.

Temperature
±2.4°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.00"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±2.7mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
57° / 36°
Actual
59° / 35°
Error: -2°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 25 mph
Actual
7 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
54° / 33°
Actual
59° / 29°
Error: -5°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 20 mph
Actual
6 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
58° / 34°
Actual
58° / 29°
Error: 0°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 20 mph
Actual
7 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
55° / 34°
Actual
59° / 28°
Error: -4°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 24 mph
Actual
7 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
52° / 35°
Actual
51° / 30°
Error: 1°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 13 mph
Actual
6 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
53° / 33°
Actual
55° / 24°
Error: -2°F high, 9°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 16 mph
Actual
5 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
54° / 33°
Actual
58° / 27°
Error: -4°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 22 mph
Actual
6 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
49° / 29°
Actual
49° / 31°
Error: 0°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
5 / 15 mph
Actual
5 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
50° / 29°
Actual
49° / 29°
Error: 1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 23 mph
Actual
7 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
50° / 31°
Actual
51° / 29°
Error: -1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 20 mph
Actual
6 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
48° / 32°
Actual
51° / 25°
Error: -3°F high, 7°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 18 mph
Actual
3 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
51° / 33°
Actual
57° / 28°
Error: -6°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 21 mph
Actual
4 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

A Sunny but Chilly Spring Saturday Across Kentucky

High pressure will dominate the Commonwealth on Saturday, providing clear skies and quiet weather for the start of the weekend. Following a frosty morning with temperatures near or below freezing, a bright afternoon will see a seasonal rebound into the 50s. Only far Eastern Kentucky may see lingering morning clouds and a stray sprinkle before clearing occurs statewide.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

The model agreement on the synoptic pattern is exceptionally high. High-pressure dominance is a high-predictability setup. The 10-point deduction is solely due to the forecast being 3-4 days out from the event date.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Bright and Pleasant
Sunny
57°/ 36°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Sunny and Seasonal
Sunny
54°/ 33°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Full Sun and Mild Afternoon
Sunny
58°/ 34°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Crisp and Sunny for Bowling Green
Sunny
55°/ 34°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
City Sunshine
Sunny
52°/ 35°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Sunny and Calm
Sunny
53°/ 33°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Clear Skies for the Lake
Sunny
54°/ 33°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Frosty Morning and Cool Sun
Sunny
49°/ 29°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Bright but Crisp
Sunny
50°/ 29°

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Sunny Skies in the Foothills
Sunny
50°/ 31°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Frosty Start with Increasing Sun
Sunny
48°/ 32°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Sunny over the Mountains
Sunny
51°/ 33°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the surface high shifts east faster than anticipated, a more aggressive southerly return flow could allow temperatures in the far west and south to reach the lower 60s by late afternoon.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the morning radiational cooling is maximized in the valleys and the weak shortwave energy in the Northeast produces more persistent cloud cover, high temperatures may struggle to reach the 50-degree mark for the eastern half of the state.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Valley Cold War

A significant disagreement exists regarding the depth of the morning radiational cooling. The NAM and GEM are much more aggressive with surface decoupling in valley locations, leading to lows in the mid-to-upper 20s, while the GFS and Euro maintain slightly warmer 'well-mixed' morning temperatures in the 30s.

NAM
VS
GEM
VS
GFS
Why NAM Wins

The NAM typically resolves the shallow, cold air masses in Kentucky's complex terrain better than global models, which often suffer from vertical resolution limits in the boundary layer.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS COREBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Northeast Drizzle Disturbance

The GEM suggests enough lingering low-level moisture and weak vorticity to produce a 6-hour window of drizzle or virga in the far Northeast, whereas the GFS and NAM maintain a bone-dry profile.

GEM
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why GFS Wins

The GFS moisture profile shows a significant dry layer below 850mb (25+ degree dewpoint depressions) which will likely cause any falling moisture to evaporate as virga before reaching the surface.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical temperature stack features a sharp nocturnal surface-based inversion due to radiational cooling, transitioning to a dry adiabatic lapse rate up to 850mb by late afternoon.

Thermal Boundary

The freezing line will be surface-based across 90% of the state at dawn, retreating northward into Ohio and Indiana by 15z.

Diurnal Trend

Strictly diurnal. A rapid temperature rise is expected between 14z and 19z as the morning inversion breaks and solar insolation maximizes.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak, moisture-starved cold front passed the region approximately 24 hours prior; the state is now firmly in the post-frontal subsidence regime.

Jet Stream Support

The Right Entrance Region of a departing jet streak will enhance subsidence, suppressing vertical motion and cloud development.

Energy Status

Neutral to slightly negative vorticity across the state as a compact shortwave pivots into the Mid-Atlantic.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is deeply unsaturated. Relative humidity values below 700mb are forecast to be less than 30%.

Precipitation Character

None. Any moisture is limited to trace virga or non-measurable drizzle in the far Northeast.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic concerns as the ground continues to dry under clear skies.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

No melting layers or warm noses of concern; the column is too dry to support wintry precipitation despite cold surface temps.

Crystal Habit

N/A

Road Impact

Roads will be dry. Isolated frost on bridges is possible in the morning but will melt rapidly after sunrise.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

79% Illumination
Moonrise
3:57 PM
Moonset
5:37 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:47 AM
Sunset
8:13 PM
Civil Dawn
7:21 AM
Civil Dusk
8:40 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:41 AM
Sunset
8:08 PM
Civil Dawn
7:14 AM
Civil Dusk
8:34 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:42 AM
Sunset
8:09 PM
Civil Dawn
7:16 AM
Civil Dusk
8:35 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:38 AM
Sunset
8:05 PM
Civil Dawn
7:12 AM
Civil Dusk
8:31 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:35 AM
Sunset
8:03 PM
Civil Dawn
7:08 AM
Civil Dusk
8:29 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:36 AM
Sunset
8:03 PM
Civil Dawn
7:09 AM
Civil Dusk
8:29 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:31 AM
Sunset
7:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:05 AM
Civil Dusk
8:24 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:30 AM
Sunset
7:58 PM
Civil Dawn
7:03 AM
Civil Dusk
8:25 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:30 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:04 AM
Civil Dusk
8:24 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:29 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM
Civil Dawn
7:03 AM
Civil Dusk
8:23 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:22 AM
Sunset
7:50 PM
Civil Dawn
6:56 AM
Civil Dusk
8:17 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:25 AM
Sunset
7:52 PM
Civil Dawn
6:59 AM
Civil Dusk
8:18 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.