Saturday, March 28
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 11:44AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 11:49AM CDT until March 28 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected.
WHERE All of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, and portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky along and north of line from Van Buren to Sikeston, to Paducah through the Land Between the Lakes to Hopkinsville and Elkton.
WHEN From 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 1:57PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 22 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Make sure outdoor plumbing is winterized. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 1:57PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 22 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Make sure outdoor plumbing is winterized. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 2:37PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 26 expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to the lower 30s expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s in the valleys and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s in the valleys and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 9:03PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 22 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent water pipes from freezing; wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 9:03PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 22 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent water pipes from freezing; wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 12:52AM CDT until March 28 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 28 at 2:48AM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 2:48AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 2:55AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to the lower 30s expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until 10 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 28 at 2:55AM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s in the valleys and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 2:55AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s in the valleys and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, until 10 AM EDT this morning. For the Freeze Watch, from late tonight through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 28 at 9:49AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Low to very low humidities and very dry fuels will combine to result in Elevated Fire Danger through this evening. Humidities will recover an hour or two after sunset, alleviating the threat tonight. However, low humidities and dry fuels are also expected on Sunday, and frequent wind gusts into the 15 to 25 mph range between 10 AM and around sunset will result in High Fire Danger. A burn band in currently in place for McCreary County. Check for any other county burn bans or restrictions that may be in place. Remember, that Kentucky regulations make it illegal to burn between the hours of 6 AM and 6 PM within 150 feet of an woodland or brushland during the Spring Forest Fire Season that runs until April 30th.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 28 at 10:03AM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s in the valleys and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere are expected for Saturday night into Sunday morning.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From Midnight to 10 AM EDT Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 28 at 10:05AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Low to very low humidities and dry fuels will combine to result in elevated fire danger through this evening. Humidities will recover an hour or two after sunset, alleviating the threat tonight. Remember, Kentucky regulations make it illegal to burn between the hours of 6 AM and 6 PM within 150 feet of a woodland or brushland during the Spring Forest Fire Season that runs until April 30th.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 1:08PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The lowest temperatures will be across the typical valley cold spots.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent water pipes from freezing; wrap or drain or allow them to drip slowly. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Frost Advisory
Frost Advisory issued March 28 at 1:52PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Temperatures in the lower 30s will result in frost formation.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 28 at 1:52PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s expected.
WHERE Bourbon, Harrison KY, and Nicholas Counties.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, March 28, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
A Sunny but Chilly Spring Saturday Across Kentucky
High pressure will dominate the Commonwealth on Saturday, providing clear skies and quiet weather for the start of the weekend. Following a frosty morning with temperatures near or below freezing, a bright afternoon will see a seasonal rebound into the 50s. Only far Eastern Kentucky may see lingering morning clouds and a stray sprinkle before clearing occurs statewide.
Confidence Assessment
The model agreement on the synoptic pattern is exceptionally high. High-pressure dominance is a high-predictability setup. The 10-point deduction is solely due to the forecast being 3-4 days out from the event date.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
The Purchase area will enjoy the warmest temperatures in the state today. Expect full sunshine from morning until evening, with temperatures reaching the upper 50s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A very bright and clear day is expected along the Ohio River. After a chilly morning in the low 30s, afternoon highs will climb into the mid-50s.
Southwest Pennyrile
One of the warmest spots in Kentucky today, with highs near 58 degrees. Expect a crisp morning followed by an ideal afternoon for outdoor activities.
Barren River
Plenty of sunshine will help temperatures rebound into the mid-50s after a frosty morning. Winds will be a bit breezy early in the day before calming down.
Louisville Metro
The Louisville metro area will see clear skies all day long. Morning lows will be chilly, but the city center should stay slightly warmer than rural areas.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a beautiful day across the Lincoln Trail region. Temperatures will top out in the lower 50s under crystal clear skies.
Lake Cumberland
A very chilly morning near the freezing mark will give way to a sun-drenched afternoon. Perfect weather for the lake area with highs in the mid-50s.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a cold start for Northern Kentucky with temperatures below freezing. Despite full sunshine, temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees today.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a very cold morning with widespread frost. The afternoon will be sunny but cool, with temperatures reaching around 50 degrees.
Bluegrass Foothills
A chilly morning will give way to a pleasant afternoon with plenty of sun. Highs will remain just under the 50-degree mark.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect some early morning clouds and perhaps a stray sprinkle or flurry near the Ohio border. Any clouds will clear rapidly, leaving a sunny but cool afternoon with highs in the upper 40s.
Southeast Kentucky
A very cold morning for the mountains will lead to a bright and clear spring day. Afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 50s under full sunshine.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the surface high shifts east faster than anticipated, a more aggressive southerly return flow could allow temperatures in the far west and south to reach the lower 60s by late afternoon.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the morning radiational cooling is maximized in the valleys and the weak shortwave energy in the Northeast produces more persistent cloud cover, high temperatures may struggle to reach the 50-degree mark for the eastern half of the state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Valley Cold War
A significant disagreement exists regarding the depth of the morning radiational cooling. The NAM and GEM are much more aggressive with surface decoupling in valley locations, leading to lows in the mid-to-upper 20s, while the GFS and Euro maintain slightly warmer 'well-mixed' morning temperatures in the 30s.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves the shallow, cold air masses in Kentucky's complex terrain better than global models, which often suffer from vertical resolution limits in the boundary layer.
The Northeast Drizzle Disturbance
The GEM suggests enough lingering low-level moisture and weak vorticity to produce a 6-hour window of drizzle or virga in the far Northeast, whereas the GFS and NAM maintain a bone-dry profile.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS moisture profile shows a significant dry layer below 850mb (25+ degree dewpoint depressions) which will likely cause any falling moisture to evaporate as virga before reaching the surface.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.