Friday, March 27
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 26 at 1:51PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 26 possible.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.
WHEN From late Friday night through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 26 at 2:03PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From late Friday night through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 26 at 9:51PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From late Friday night through Saturday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 1:41AM CDT until March 28 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 29 expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 3:05AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected.
WHERE McCreary, Whitley, Bell, Harlan, Knox, Letcher, and Pike Counties.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 3:05AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 3:07AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 24 expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 3:07AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected.
WHERE Ohio, Allen, Butler, Logan, Simpson, and Warren Counties.
WHEN From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 9:10AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Make sure outdoor plumbing is winterized. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 11:44AM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 27 expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 11:49AM CDT until March 28 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected.
WHERE All of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, and portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky along and north of line from Van Buren to Sikeston, to Paducah through the Land Between the Lakes to Hopkinsville and Elkton.
WHEN From 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 1:57PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 22 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Make sure outdoor plumbing is winterized. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 1:57PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 25 expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as 22 possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and southern and western West Virginia.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Make sure outdoor plumbing is winterized. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 2:37PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 26 expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to the lower 30s expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Warning
Freeze Warning issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 28 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s in the valleys and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Freeze Watch
Freeze Watch issued March 27 at 4:04PM EDT until March 29 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s expected. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s in the valleys and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN For the Freeze Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
IMPACTS Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, March 27, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Sharp Cold Front: Morning Warmth to Afternoon Rain & Chill
A powerful cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Friday, ending the unseasonably warm spell with a period of steady rain and a dramatic temperature drop. Temperatures will peak in the morning or early afternoon before falling 20-30 degrees by sunset.
Confidence Assessment
Extremely high agreement among all major models regarding the frontal timing, the non-diurnal temperature trend, and the precipitation type remaining entirely liquid.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain will move through early in the day, likely tapering off by noon. Temperatures will peak in the upper 60s around breakfast time before tumbling into the 40s by late afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a grey and wet morning with rain most persistent through lunchtime. Temperatures will fall from the 70s into the 40s during the afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain will arrive a bit later here, starting after sunrise and peaking midday. Temperatures will peak in the upper 60s and then fall steadily.
Barren River
Expect steady rain through much of the morning and afternoon. Temperatures will tumble as the rain sets in, with gusty winds over 30 mph.
Louisville Metro
It will be a wet morning commute for the Metro. Heavy rain is likely through noon, followed by falling temperatures and winds gusting to 40 mph.
Lincoln Trail
Expect rain through the first half of the day. A cold wind will pick up in the afternoon, making it feel much colder by sunset.
Lake Cumberland
A warm start will lead into a grey, rainy, and much cooler afternoon. The heaviest rain will fall between noon and 4 PM.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a very wet morning with over half an inch of rain possible before noon. Temperatures will plummet into the 30s by evening.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a very windy day with steady rain through the lunch hour. Afternoon winds will gust up to 40 mph, making it feel much colder.
Bluegrass Foothills
It will be a raw, rainy day with high winds. Expect the rain to be steadiest around midday with totals near a third of an inch.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a soggy day with nearly three-quarters of an inch of rain possible. Be careful on the roads during the afternoon commute.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will hold off until the afternoon for the mountains, continuing into the late evening. It will start warm but end chilly.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves a slower frontal progression that allows moisture to pool more effectively along the I-64 corridor, potentially pushing rainfall totals over 1.25 inches in Northeast KY and delaying the temperature crash until the evening commute.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario sees a faster arrival of the mid-level dry slot, which would truncate precipitation shortly after the frontal passage, leaving most of Western and Central Kentucky with less than 0.10 inches of rain.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Thermal Timing Divergence
Models disagree on the exact hour of the surface temperature crash, with the NAM/GEM being 2-3 hours faster than the GFS.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the shallow, post-frontal cold air mass (CAA) and surface boundary precision better than global models within the 24-hour window.
The QPF Bullseye Conflict
The GFS and NAM are aggressive with a heavy rain axis (0.6" to 0.9") across the Northern and Northeast regions, while the GEM and Euro are notably drier, suggesting a faster moisture exit.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS and NAM better resolve the moisture convergence in the right-entrance region of the upper-level jet, which typically enhances QPF in anafrontal setups over Kentucky.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.