Friday, March 27
Windy Front and Crashing Temperatures Bring Statewide Rain
A powerful cold front will traverse Kentucky from west to east on Friday, resulting in a dramatic non-diurnal temperature shift, gusty winds, and widespread rain. Morning spring-like warmth will be replaced by winter-like chill by sunset.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement exists regarding the timing of the front and the non-diurnal temperature crash. Confidence is slightly lower on exact rainfall totals due to the presence of a mid-level dry slot.
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Purchase Area
Rain will move through the region during the morning hours, tapering off by lunchtime. As the rain ends, temperatures will drop from the 60s into the 40s. Windy conditions are expected, with gusts reaching 40 mph before the front passes.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect rain to be steadiest through the morning commute. Winds will be gusty throughout the day as temperatures tumble into the 40s by evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
The morning will be warm and windy, with rain arriving by midday. Temperatures will fall quickly through the afternoon hours.
Barren River
Bowling Green will stay dry for much of the morning before rain showers arrive in the afternoon. Expect a sharp 20-degree drop in temperature by sunset.
Louisville Metro
Plan for a wet morning commute as rain moves through early. Temperatures will peak in the morning and fall into the 40s by late afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Expect very windy conditions early in the day with rain sweeping through during the afternoon. Temperatures will be highest in the morning.
Lake Cumberland
A pleasant morning will give way to rain showers by lunchtime. Rain may linger into the evening as temperatures fall into the 40s.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a raw, rainy morning with temperatures falling into the 30s by evening. Wind chills will make it feel even colder.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a messy morning commute with rain and strong winds. Temperatures will crash from the 60s into the 40s by afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect unseasonable warmth this morning followed by rain and gusty winds this afternoon. Temperatures will be much colder by evening.
Northeast Kentucky
Plan for a soggy day with over half an inch of rain. Temperatures will start warm but finish near freezing tonight.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay mild through most of the morning with rain arriving by early afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the frontal speed slows and the moisture plume deepens, rainfall totals could exceed 1.0 inch in the Bluegrass and Northeast regions, with wind gusts peaking near 50 mph along the Muldraugh Escarpment.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry slot arrives faster than currently modeled, rainfall will be light and scattered (under 0.10 inch) for Central and Western Kentucky, with only a narrow band of rain along the immediate frontal boundary.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Boundary Layer Mixing War
The NAM and GFS indicate a highly efficient mixing layer that translates 45+ mph gusts to the surface, while the Euro and GEM suggest more stable low-levels with gusts capped at 30 mph.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM is historically superior at resolving boundary layer precision and mechanical mixing associated with sharp cold fronts and low-level jet momentum transfer.
The QPF Divergence
The GFS and GEM show a much wetter solution for Northeast Kentucky and the Louisville Metro, suggesting totals over 0.75 inches, while the NAM and Euro are significantly drier, keeping totals under 0.30 inches due to a more aggressive dry slot.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles mid-level moisture 'dry slots' with better precision in these fast-moving frontal regimes, whereas the GFS tends to 'smear' light precipitation too broadly.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.