Sunday, March 22
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 22 at 6:17PM EDT until March 23 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY TRIMBLE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BEDFORD, BELLEVIEW, BELLEVIEW, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BRYANTSBURG, BRYANTSBURG, CANTON, CANTON, CEMENTVILLE, CEMENTVILLE, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CHINA, CHINA, CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT, CORYDON, CORYDON, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, EDWARDSVILLE, EDWARDSVILLE, ENGLISH, EVANS LANDING, EVANS LANDING, FLOYDS KNOBS, FLOYDS KNOBS, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, HITCHCOCK, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, JEFFERSONVILLE, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MARENGO, MARENGO, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, MILTON, NEW ALBANY, NEW ALBANY, NEW BOSTON, PAOLI, SYRIA, TELL CITY, TERRY, WHITE CLOUD, WHITE CLOUD, AND YOUNGS CREEK.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, March 22, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Summer Heat Followed by a Sharp Evening Cold Front
A record-challenging spring day is on tap for Kentucky with temperatures soaring into the low to mid-80s under sunny skies. However, a potent cold front will cross the Ohio River late this evening, bringing a round of light rain showers and a sharp 20-30 degree temperature drop to northern and central regions by tonight.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the record-breaking warmth and wind gusts; moderate confidence in the exact start time of evening rain due to timing differences between the Euro and the rest of the model suite.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a summer-like day with plenty of sunshine and highs reaching the mid-80s. It will be windy in the afternoon with gusts over 30 mph, but rain is not expected.
Northwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will approach record levels, hitting the mid-80s. Windy conditions will prevail with gusts up to 40 mph at times.
Southwest Pennyrile
A beautiful, summer-like day with highs in the 80s. Skies will remain clear with breezy afternoon winds.
Barren River
Temperatures will soar to around 85 degrees under clear skies. It will be quite windy, with gusts potentially reaching 35 mph.
Louisville Metro
Highs will reach the mid-80s before a cold front arrives after sunset. Expect light rain showers to develop after 8 PM, with cooler air moving in late.
Lincoln Trail
Enjoy highs near 83 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase late, but rain chances remain very low until after midnight.
Lake Cumberland
A perfect day for the water with highs in the low 80s and clear skies. Windy conditions will build in the afternoon but rain will stay north.
Northern Kentucky
Highs will hit the mid-80s before a cold front brings rain around 7 PM. Expect accumulations around 0.3 inches and a sharp drop in temperature tonight.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see highs in the low 80s with very gusty winds. A few light rain showers are possible late this evening, though amounts will be light.
Bluegrass Foothills
Highs will reach the low 80s with plenty of afternoon sun. Windy conditions will continue into the evening, but rain should stay north.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect summer-like highs in the mid-80s followed by late evening rain. Rain showers will move in after 9 PM, bringing cooler temperatures for the night.
Southeast Kentucky
A very warm and dry day for the mountains with highs near 81. Skies will remain clear with no rain expected through the night.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the front slows slightly and the low-level jet maximizes, temperatures could reach the upper 80s in the south, while Northern KY sees over a half-inch of rain if moisture pooling is more efficient.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A 'Bust' occurs if the deep dry layer in the sub-cloud region wins out, resulting in nothing more than sprinkles (virga) and a dry frontal passage for most of the state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The QPF Moisture Squeeze
Models disagree on how much moisture will survive the trip over the dry sub-cloud layer. The NAM and Euro show 0.3-0.5" of rain, while the GFS and GEM suggest the atmosphere will largely 'eat' the rain via evaporation.
Why BLEND Wins
A middle-ground approach is warranted given the high dewpoint depressions (25F+), which will likely cap totals below the higher NAM/Euro estimates.
The Frontal Timing Tug-of-War
The ECMWF is significantly more aggressive with the cold front's progression, bringing rain and cooling to the Ohio River by early afternoon, while the NAM and GFS hold the front back until the mid-to-late evening.
Why NAM Wins
High-resolution mesoscale models like the NAM typically handle the shallow cold air and timing of surface boundaries more accurately within 24-36 hours than global models.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.