Saturday, March 21
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, March 21, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
May-Like Warmth Arrives Despite Scattered Light Showers
Kentucky will experience a dramatic warm-up this Saturday as unseasonably warm air surges northward. While the day begins with departing rain in the east and ends with a few light showers returning to the south, the afternoon will be dominated by sunshine and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal norms.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the significant warming trend and the early morning rain departure in the east. Lower confidence remains regarding the northern extent and measurable accumulation of the late-evening rain pulse in the southern counties.
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Purchase Area
Residents can expect a beautiful, May-like day with plenty of sunshine. Afternoon temperatures will soar into the lower 80s, though a breezy morning will see gusts up to 35 mph.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a stunning spring day with clear skies and temperatures reaching 80 degrees. It will be breezy at times, especially before noon.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm afternoon is in store with highs near 80. Clouds will increase this evening, with a few light rain showers possible after dark.
Barren River
Scattered light rain is possible during the morning and again late in the day. Otherwise, expect a very warm Saturday with highs in the upper 70s.
Louisville Metro
Any early morning clouds will clear away for a fantastic sunny afternoon. Highs will be comfortable in the mid-70s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a bright and warm day with temperatures reaching the upper 70s. Perfect weather for outdoor activities.
Lake Cumberland
Periods of light rain showers are expected, particularly in the morning and late evening. Temperatures will remain very mild in the mid-70s.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a crisp start followed by a pleasant sunny afternoon with highs near 70 degrees.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect near-record warmth today with highs reaching the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies.
Bluegrass Foothills
A warm and bright day will see a few more clouds and perhaps a light shower arriving by late afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Any morning rain showers will end by breakfast, giving way to a pleasant and mild afternoon with highs in the upper 60s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a damp morning with light rain, followed by a break in the clouds and warm afternoon temperatures in the low 70s. A few more showers may return this evening.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the trailing shortwave energy is stronger and deeper as suggested by the NAM, rain showers could become more widespread across the southern half of the state, holding temperatures in the low 70s rather than the 80s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level ridge builds more aggressively as shown by the GEM, all moisture will be suppressed, leading to statewide sunshine and record-breaking highs in the mid-80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Low-Level Jet Mixing
Models disagree on how efficiently the 45kt 850mb jet will mix to the surface during the morning hours.
Why NAM Wins
NAM is superior at resolving boundary layer momentum transfer in the pre-frontal/WAA environment. High confidence in gusts reaching 35mph before the gradient relaxes.
The Late-Day Moisture Pulse
A significant disagreement exists regarding the return of rain late Saturday. The GFS and NAM show a distinct wave of light rain moving into southern and central Kentucky after 7 PM, while the GEM remains completely dry and the Euro shows only isolated sprinkles.
Why EURO Wins
The GEM's total dry-out appears unrealistic given the moisture recovery progged in the Tennessee Valley, but the NAM/GFS solutions likely over-forecast QPF by failing to account for the dry sub-cloud layer (T/Td spreads >15F) which will lead to significant evaporation (Virga).
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.