Monday, March 23
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 22 at 6:17PM EDT until March 23 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY TRIMBLE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ADYEVILLE, ADYEVILLE, BECKS MILL, BECKS MILL, BEDFORD, BELLEVIEW, BELLEVIEW, BROWNSTOWN, BROWNSTOWN, BRYANTSBURG, BRYANTSBURG, CANTON, CANTON, CEMENTVILLE, CEMENTVILLE, CHAMBERSBURG, CHAMBERSBURG, CHINA, CHINA, CLARK REGIONAL AIRPORT, CORYDON, CORYDON, DUBOIS, DUBOIS, EDWARDSVILLE, EDWARDSVILLE, ENGLISH, EVANS LANDING, EVANS LANDING, FLOYDS KNOBS, FLOYDS KNOBS, FRENCH LICK MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, GATCHEL, GATCHEL, GOSHEN, GOSHEN, HITCHCOCK, HUNTINGBURG AIRPORT, IRELAND, IRELAND, JASPER, JASPER, JEFFERSONVILLE, JEFFERSONVILLE, KOSSUTH, KOSSUTH, MADISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, MARENGO, MARENGO, MILLTOWN, MILLTOWN, MILTON, NEW ALBANY, NEW ALBANY, NEW BOSTON, PAOLI, SYRIA, TELL CITY, TERRY, WHITE CLOUD, WHITE CLOUD, AND YOUNGS CREEK.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 22 at 11:08PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 1108 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Burlington to near Carrollton, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Locations impacted include... Cincinnati, Covington, Florence, Independence, Norwood, Erlanger, Fort Thomas, Newport, Reading, Madeira, Edgewood, Alexandria, Elsmere, Wyoming, Fort Mitchell, Villa Hills, Highland Heights, Milford, Taylor Mill, and Bellevue. This includes the following Interstates... I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 77. I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 13. I-74 in Ohio near mile marker 19. I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 144 and 191. I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 12. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for southeastern Indiana...northern Kentucky...and south central and southwestern Ohio. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 22 at 11:18PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
A strong cold front is pushing through north-central Kentucky this evening. Winds just ahead and behind the front will gust to 40-50 mph for a short period of time as the front moves through. Behind the front, a band of thunderstorms will affect portions of Oldham, Henry, northern Jefferson, and Shelby counties through 100 AM EDT.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 22 at 11:25PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 1124 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Madison to 7 miles northeast of Corydon. Movement was east at 60 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Louisville, Jeffersonville, New Albany, Jeffersontown, St. Matthews, Shelbyville, Madison, Lyndon, La Grange, and Middletown.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 22 at 11:49PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 1149 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of Brooksville, moving east at 55 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Locations impacted include... Maysville, Georgetown, Washington, West Union, Manchester, Peebles, Ripley, Aberdeen, Vanceburg, Augusta, Winchester, Seaman, Lewisburg, Brooksville, Rome, Tollesboro, Blue Creek, Decatur, Russellville, and Hamersville. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for south central and southwestern Ohio. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 22 at 11:50PM EDT until March 23 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73 TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN INDIANA THIS ALLOWS TO EXPIRE 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND IN KENTUCKY THIS ALLOWS TO EXPIRE 3 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY BOONE CAMPBELL KENTON IN OHIO THIS ALLOWS TO EXPIRE 19 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HOCKING LICKING MADISON PICKAWAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO ADAMS HIGHLAND PIKE ROSS SCIOTO IN SOUTHWEST OHIO BROWN BUTLER CLERMONT CLINTON HAMILTON WARREN IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO GREENE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ALEXANDRIA, AURORA, BATESVILLE, BEAVERCREEK, BELLEVUE, BLANCHESTER, BRIGHT, BROOKVILLE, BURLINGTON, CHILLICOTHE, CIRCLEVILLE, COVINGTON, DAY HEIGHTS, DAYTON, DILLSBORO, DOWNTOWN CINCINNATI, DOWNTOWN COLUMBUS, ERLANGER, FAIRBORN, FAIRFIELD, FLORENCE, FORT THOMAS, FRANKLIN, GEORGETOWN, GREENDALE, GREENFIELD, HAMILTON, HIDDEN VALLEY, HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, HILLSBORO, INDEPENDENCE, LANCASTER, LANDEN, LAWRENCEBURG, LEBANON, LOGAN, LONDON, MANCHESTER, MASON, MIDDLETOWN, MILAN, MILFORD, MOUNT CARMEL, MOUNT ORAB, MOUNT REPOSE, MULBERRY, NEWARK, NEWPORT, OAKBROOK, OSGOOD, OXFORD, PEEBLES, PICKERINGTON, PIKE LAKE, PIKETON, PLAIN CITY, PORTSMOUTH, RIPLEY, RISING SUN, SEAMAN, SPRINGBORO, SUMMERSIDE, VERSAILLES, VEVAY, WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE, WAVERLY, WEST JEFFERSON, WEST UNION, WHEELERSBURG, WILMINGTON, WINCHESTER, WITHAMSVILLE, AND XENIA.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, March 23, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Sharp Cold Front: Morning Rain and Falling Temperatures
A strong cold front will traverse the Commonwealth today, bringing widespread morning rain followed by a significant non-diurnal temperature drop and gusty winds.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the timing of the front and the lack of wintry weather. Moderate confidence regarding the exact rainfall totals due to significant spread between the NAM and GFS/Euro.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a dry but windy day across the Purchase. Temperatures will peak early and then slowly fall through the afternoon under clearing skies.
Northwest Pennyrile
A quick morning shower is possible before 8 AM. Skies will clear for the afternoon, but it will remain blustery and cool.
Southwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies and a few light raindrops are expected early this morning. Sunshine returns by afternoon as temperatures drop into the 40s.
Barren River
A quick sprinkle is possible early, but the main story is the temperature drop from the 60s into the 40s by midday.
Louisville Metro
Expect light rain during the morning commute, ending by mid-morning. It will be a chilly and breezy afternoon with falling temperatures.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will be steady through mid-morning before clearing. Temperatures will fall into the 40s during the afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Morning rain showers and gusty winds will be common. Temperatures will drop sharply behind the rain as skies begin to clear.
Northern Kentucky
A wet morning will give way to a very chilly afternoon. Highs will struggle to stay in the 40s as the wind picks up.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will be heavy at times during the morning commute with around half an inch expected. Temperatures will fall throughout the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a wet morning with rainfall ending by noon. Temperatures will turn much cooler in the afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be most persistent in the Northeast, potentially lasting through lunch before clearing. Chilly winds will follow.
Southeast Kentucky
A very warm morning will be interrupted by rain showers. Temperatures will crash from the 70s into the 40s during the afternoon.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If moisture convergence maximizes along the front as the NAM suggests, localized rainfall totals in the Bluegrass could reach near one inch, leading to minor nuisance ponding in urban areas.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry slot enters faster (per the Euro), rainfall will be minimal (under 0.10 inches) and clouds will clear by mid-morning, allowing for a milder but breezy afternoon.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Bluegrass Rainfall Bullseye
The NAM outputs nearly an inch of rain for Lexington, while the GFS and Euro suggest less than a tenth of an inch.
Why GEM Wins
The NAM's 0.93 inch total is likely a 'Bullseye' outlier. The GEM provides a more realistic middle ground (0.35-0.45 inches) given the PWAT values near 0.8 inches.
Frontal Magnitude Discrepancy
The NAM and GEM show a vigorous surface front with a 20-30 degree temperature crash, while the Euro depicts a decaying moisture shield and a much more tempered cooling trend.
Why NAM Wins
NAM and GEM better resolve the low-level density of the post-frontal air mass. Given the 110kt jet support, a sharper frontal boundary is more physically consistent than the Euro's weaker solution.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.