Friday, March 20
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, March 20, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Unseasonable Warmth and Gusty Winds Grip the Commonwealth
A powerful surge of warm air will push temperatures into the 70s and low 80s across Kentucky. While most areas remain dry, a weak passing disturbance will bring light, scattered rain to the Northeast and isolated sprinkles to south-central regions.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the temperature surge and the arrival of a breezy airmass. Slight disagreement remains regarding the exact southern extent of the light precipitation in the Northeast and the timing of the evening cloud deck.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a bright and unseasonably warm day with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will feel more like late May than mid-March, reaching the 80-degree mark in many spots.
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will dominate for most of the day, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s. Southwesterly winds will be noticeable, gusting to around 30 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm afternoon is on tap with temperatures nearing 80 degrees. Skies will be mostly clear, though a few high clouds may drift by late.
Barren River
Enjoy the sunshine and warmth as temperatures reach the upper 70s. Be aware of gusty winds that could reach up to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will stay dry for the majority of the day with warm highs in the mid-70s. Clouds will increase by the evening commute.
Lincoln Trail
A windy but very warm day. Morning sunshine will give way to more clouds by late afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s.
Lake Cumberland
A generally warm day with temperatures in the low 70s. Keep an eye out for a few light sprinkles or a brief shower in the mid-afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a mostly cloudy day with temperatures remaining comfortable in the low 70s. Winds will be breezy through the morning.
Inner Bluegrass
A very breezy day for the Lexington area. Sustained winds will be active, and while it will stay cloudy, rain is not expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy skies will prevail. Temperatures will be mild, but a few light showers may move through late in the day.
Northeast Kentucky
This will be the dampest part of the state. Expect occasional light rain or showers starting in the afternoon, with accumulations around 0.05 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Most of the day will be dry and cloudy. Light showers are possible very late in the evening, with temperatures staying pleasant.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level jet maximizes earlier and cloud cover remains thin, temperatures could reach the mid-80s in the Purchase and near 80 in the Bluegrass, while rain in the east becomes a steady tenth of an inch.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry slot is more aggressive, precipitation in the Northeast fails to reach the ground (Virga), and thick afternoon cloud cover holds temperatures in the upper 60s for the eastern half of the state.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Wind Gust Magnitude
NAM and GEM are significantly more aggressive with surface wind gusts (35-40 mph) compared to the GFS and Euro (25-30 mph).
Why NAM Wins
Inside the 48-hour window, the NAM's higher resolution better captures the momentum transfer from the LLJ during peak afternoon heating.
The Northeast Rain Reach
The GFS and Euro show a corridor of light measurable rain in the Northeast, while the NAM and GEM keep the state largely dry, suggesting the moisture remains too shallow to overcome the dry boundary layer.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro consistently handles dry-slot erosion and stratiform moisture plumes better than the GFS, which tends to over-forecast light precip coverage, and the NAM, which often misses shallow synoptic lift.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.