Thursday, March 19
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, March 19, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Mild Spring Sun After a Chilly Start
High pressure will dominate the Commonwealth on Thursday, bringing a clear and unseasonably warm afternoon. After a chilly morning with valley frosts in the east, temperatures will recover into the 60s and lower 70s.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement exists between all global and mesoscale models regarding the dry airmass and the general temperature range. Only minor timing differences regarding cloud clearing prevent a perfect score.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful and warm day with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will climb from a cool start into the low 70s by late afternoon. Winds will be light and pleasant throughout the day, making for excellent outdoor conditions.
Northwest Pennyrile
A clear and pleasant day is in store for the Owensboro area. Highs will reach the upper 60s under blue skies.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a standout spring day with temperatures reaching 70 degrees and full sunshine from morning to night.
Barren River
A beautiful afternoon is expected in Bowling Green after a chilly morning. Skies will be clear with highs in the upper 60s.
Louisville Metro
After a few morning clouds, skies will clear to reveal a very pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid-60s.
Lincoln Trail
A very quiet and pleasant spring day is expected. Highs will reach the mid-60s under bright sunshine.
Lake Cumberland
Enjoy a crisp morning followed by a sun-filled afternoon around the lake. Temperatures will be comfortable in the mid-60s.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a grey start with plenty of clouds, but those will clear out to reveal a sunny and mild afternoon with highs in the low 60s.
Inner Bluegrass
After a cold and cloudy morning, Lexington will see brilliant sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the low 60s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Richmond and Berea will see a chilly and breezy morning followed by a beautiful sunny afternoon with highs near 62.
Northeast Kentucky
A cold morning in the valleys will give way to a crisp and sunny afternoon with temperatures reaching 60 degrees.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a frosty start with temperatures near 30 degrees, followed by a beautiful afternoon with clear skies and highs in the low 60s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the ridge centers more quickly and boundary layer mixing reaches the 800mb level earlier, afternoon highs could over-perform by 2-3 degrees, pushing the western Purchase area into the mid-70s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If a weak shortwave currently over the Great Lakes drags a thicker moisture deck further south into the I-64 corridor, morning clouds could linger through 2:00 PM, holding temperatures in the upper 50s for the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northern KY Virga Dispute
The ECMWF persists in showing a weak, moisture-starved shortwave clipping Northern Kentucky with light sprinkles, while the NAM and GFS keep the region entirely dry due to a deep layer of low-level dry air.
Why GFS Wins
Model soundings across all platforms show massive dewpoint depressions (20-30F) below 5,000 feet, which will likely evaporate any precipitation before it reaches the surface, making the ECMWF's measurable QPF unlikely.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.