Forecast For

Tuesday, March 17

Updated Mar 17, 6:54 AM EDT

Confidence

60%

Summary Regions Outcomes Battles Analysis Almanac Charts

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Mar 16, 5:07 AM -> Mar 16, 11:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 16 at 5:07AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Snow showers and some snow squalls will move through the region today. In snow squalls, heavy snowfall will lead to reduced visibilities and hazardous conditions. Use caution when driving, conditions may change quickly and roads may become slippery. Localized swaths of around 1 inch of snow will be possible.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 16, 2:53 PM -> Mar 16, 11:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 16 at 2:53PM EDT until March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow through early evening followed by snow showers and squalls tonight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts where snow showers are most persistent. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. Sudden visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less will be possible in the heaviest snowfall.

WHERE Pike County.

WHEN Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

IMPACTS Plan on slushy road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 16, 2:53 PM -> Mar 16, 11:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 16 at 2:53PM EDT until March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow expected through early evening followed by snow showers and squalls tonight. Expect snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts where snow showers are most persistent. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph as temperatures fall into the 20s at lower elevations and teens above 2,500 feet. Sudden visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less will be possible in the heaviest snowfall.

WHERE Harlan and Letcher Counties.

WHEN Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

IMPACTS Plan on slushy road conditions, especially at elevations above 1,500 feet. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 16, 2:53 PM -> Mar 16, 11:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 16 at 2:53PM EDT until March 17 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow expected through early evening followed by snow showers and squalls tonight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible above 1,500 feet. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. Sudden visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less will be possible in the heaviest snowfall.

WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.

WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

IMPACTS Plan on slushy road conditions, particularly at elevations above 1,500 feet. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 16, 5:10 PM -> Mar 16, 10:15 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 16 at 5:10PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Scattered snow showers and possible squalls will continue into tonight. Accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow can be expected through 10 PM, particularly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Roadways could become briefly snow-covered and slushy under the heaviest snowfall rates along with sharply reduced visibilities. Additional, spotty, accumulations of up to 1 inch cannot be ruled out overnight. Watch for icy patches on area roads - especially for bridges and overpasses - as the temperatures drop into, and through, the 20s tonight.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 16, 5:40 PM -> Mar 17, 2:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 16 at 5:40PM EDT until March 17 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow showers and squalls tonight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible above 1,500 feet. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. Sudden visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less will be possible in the heaviest snowfall.

WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.

WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.

IMPACTS Plan on slushy and slick road conditions, particularly at elevations above 1,500 feet. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 16, 5:40 PM -> Mar 17, 2:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 16 at 5:40PM EDT until March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow showers and squalls tonight. Expect snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts where snow showers are most persistent. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph as temperatures fall into the 20s at lower elevations and teens above 2,500 feet. Sudden visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less will be possible in the heaviest snowfall.

WHERE Harlan and Letcher Counties.

WHEN Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

IMPACTS Plan on slushy and slick road conditions, especially at elevations above 1,500 feet. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 16, 5:40 PM -> Mar 17, 2:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 16 at 5:40PM EDT until March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow showers and squalls tonight. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts where snow showers are most persistent. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. Sudden visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less will be possible in the heaviest snowfall.

WHERE Pike County.

WHEN Until 8 AM EDT Tuesday.

IMPACTS Plan on slushy and slick road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 16, 6:56 PM -> Mar 17, 12:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 16 at 6:56PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Snow showers may lead to additional accumulations, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces this evening. Wet roads could also become slick as temperatures fall this evening into tonight. Please use caution if driving. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 16, 7:47 PM -> Mar 17, 12:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 16 at 7:47PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Scattered snow showers occurring across the area will slowly diminish through the evening. These snow showers will continue to cause brief reductions in visibility. In addition, as temperatures fall, the snow showers could produce a light coating of snow on roadways. This will result in the potential for some slick spots to develop. Motorists should be prepared for changing conditions this evening and exercise extra caution.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 16, 7:50 PM -> Mar 17, 12:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 16 at 7:50PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Scattered snow squalls with strong wind gusts - as high as 40 mph - will continue into the first part of the night. Quick accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow can be expected through midnight, particularly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Roadways could become briefly snow-covered and slushy under the heaviest snowfall rates along with sharply reduced visibilities. Additional, spotty, accumulations of up to 1 inch cannot be ruled out overnight. Watch for icy patches on area roads - especially for bridges and overpasses - as the temperatures drop into, and through, the 20s tonight.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 16, 11:50 PM -> Mar 17, 6:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 16 at 11:50PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Scattered snow showers with gusty winds will continue through the first part of the night. Roadways could become briefly snow- covered and slushy under the heavier snowfall rates along with reduced visibilities. Additional, spotty, accumulations of up to 1 inch cannot be ruled out overnight. Watch for icy patches on area roads - especially for bridges and overpasses - as the temperatures drop through, the 20s overnight.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 16, 11:52 PM -> Mar 17, 4:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 16 at 11:52PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Scattered snow showers occurring across the area will slowly diminish through the overnight hours. These snow showers will continue to cause brief reductions in visibility. In addition, the snow showers could produce a light coating of snow on roadways. This will result in the potential for some slick spots to develop. Motorists should be prepared for changing conditions overnight and exercise extra caution.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 12:00 AM -> Mar 17, 6:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Snow showers may lead to additional accumulations. Wet roads could also become slick and snow will stick more than on Monday, as temperatures fall through the 20s overnight. Please use caution if driving. Slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 12:56 AM -> Mar 17, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 12:56AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Snow showers continue to move through the region this morning. Moderate snowfall at times may reduce visibilities. Snow accumulations from a dusting to a half of an inch is expected. Localized swatch of close to an inch will be possible. Snow may briefly accumulate on roadways, leading to slippery conditions.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 17, 2:01 AM -> Mar 17, 8:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 17 at 2:01AM EDT until March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow. Additional snow of up to half an inch is expected.

WHERE Pike County.

WHEN Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 17, 2:01 AM -> Mar 17, 8:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 17 at 2:01AM EDT until March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow. Additional snow of up to half an inch is expected.

WHERE Harlan and Letcher Counties.

WHEN Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 2:21 AM -> Mar 17, 9:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 2:21AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flurries and isolated snow showers may lead to minor snow accumulations of a dusting to half an inch, which could lead to slick spots on untreated roadways and overpasses, with continued temperatures below freezing.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 3:42 AM -> Mar 17, 9:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 3:42AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Scattered snow showers will continue through mid morning. With temperatures well below freezing, light snow accumulations will combine with lingering black ice from overnight, to create some slick spots on area roadways. In addition, brisk westerly winds will gust in the 25 to 35 mph range this morning. If traveling this morning, allow for some extra time to reach your destination. Be prepared for slick conditions, especially on bridges and overpasses as well as untreated surfaces.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 17, 5:32 AM -> Mar 17, 9:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 17 at 5:32AM EDT until March 17 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

WHAT Scattered Heavy Snow Showers. Snow accumulations up to one inch.

WHERE Portions of east central and north central Kentucky.

WHEN Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. For Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 17, 5:34 AM -> Mar 17, 9:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 17 at 5:34AM EDT until March 17 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

WHAT Snow and black ice. Additional snow accumulations less than a half inch.

WHERE Portions of northeast and northern Kentucky and south central and southwest Ohio.

WHEN Until 9 AM EDT this morning.

IMPACTS Untreated roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous.

Instructions

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 5:59 AM -> Mar 17, 8:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 5:59AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Scattered snow showers will continue through the morning commute. With temperatures well below freezing, light snow accumulations will combine with lingering black ice from overnight, to create slick spots on area roadways. If traveling this morning, allow for some extra time to reach your destination. Be prepared for slick conditions, especially on bridges and overpasses as well as untreated surfaces.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 7:45 AM -> Mar 17, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 7:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flurries and scattered snow showers may lead to minor snow accumulations of a dusting to half an inch, possibly resulting in slick spots or black ice on untreated roadways and overpasses. A stronger snow shower may briefly reduce visibility.

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 17, 7:49 AM -> Mar 17, 9:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 17 at 7:49AM EDT until March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Widespread accumulating snow has tapered off. Additional flurries and scattered snow showers may lead to minor snow accumulations of a dusting to half an inch, possibly resulting in slick spots or black ice on untreated roadways and overpasses. A stronger snow shower may briefly reduce visibility.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 8:00 AM -> Mar 17, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Scattered snow showers will continue this morning across the area, with locally heavy snow showers possible in some locations. With temperatures well below freezing, light snow accumulations will combine with lingering black ice from overnight, to create slick spots on area roadways. If traveling this morning, allow for some extra time to reach your destination. Be prepared for slick conditions, especially on bridges and overpasses as well as untreated surfaces.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 10:01 AM -> Mar 17, 12:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 10:01AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Scattered snow showers will continue this morning across the area, with locally heavy snow showers possible in some locations. Heavier snow showers could result in brief reductions in visibility, and even a few slick spots on area roadways. If traveling this morning, allow for some extra time to reach your destination. Be prepared for slick conditions, especially on bridges and overpasses as well as untreated surfaces.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 10:03 AM -> Mar 17, 2:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 10:03AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Scattered snow showers, heavy at times, may lead to minor snow accumulations of a dusting to half an inch. Slick spots or black ice on untreated roadways and overpasses remain possible. Stronger snow showers may briefly reduce visibility.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 10:51 AM -> Mar 17, 2:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 10:51AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 1:56 PM -> Mar 17, 5:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 1:56PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Scattered snow showers, heavy at times, will lead to minor snow accumulations of a dusting to half an inch. Slick spots on untreated roadways and overpasses remain possible. Stronger snow showers will also briefly reduce visibility to less than a half mile.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 2:04 PM -> Mar 17, 5:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 2:04PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Scattered snow showers will continue this afternoon across the area, with locally heavy snow showers possible in some locations. Heavier snow showers could result in sudden reductions in visibility, and even a few slick spots on area roadways. If traveling this afternoon, allow for some extra time to reach your destination. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibility, along with the potential for a few slick spots, primarily on bridges, overpasses, and untreated surfaces.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 5:00 PM -> Mar 17, 11:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Scattered snow showers will continue this evening, with some locally heavier snow showers expected to cause sudden reductions in visibility. A few slick spots could also develop on area roadways, primarily on bridges, overpasses, and untreated surfaces. If traveling, please allow for extra time to reach your destination and be prepared for rapidly changes in visibility.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 17, 5:00 PM -> Mar 17, 9:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 17 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Scattered snow showers, moderate at times, will lead to minor snow accumulations of a dusting to a half an inch. Slick spots on untreated roadways and overpasses remain possible. Heavier snow showers will also briefly reduce visibility to less than a half mile. Travelers are urged to use caution.

Confidence

60%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

Temperature

±2.5°F

Average Error

Precipitation

±0.34"

Average Error

Wind Speed

±2.6mph

Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield

Temperature

Forecast

38° / 21°

Actual

38° / 20°

Error: 0°F high, 1°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

9 / 18 mph

Actual

7 / 24 mph

Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield

Temperature

Forecast

33° / 20°

Actual

37° / 20°

Error: -4°F high, 0°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

13 / 22 mph

Actual

10 / 30 mph

Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton

Temperature

Forecast

36° / 20°

Actual

38° / 19°

Error: -2°F high, 1°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

11 / 20 mph

Actual

8 / 27 mph

Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin

Temperature

Forecast

36° / 22°

Actual

38° / 23°

Error: -2°F high, -1°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

11 / 19 mph

Actual

10 / 27 mph

Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville

Temperature

Forecast

31° / 21°

Actual

29° / 19°

Error: 2°F high, 2°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

12 / 21 mph

Actual

11 / 31 mph

Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield

Temperature

Forecast

32° / 21°

Actual

34° / 22°

Error: -2°F high, -1°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

13 / 22 mph

Actual

10 / 28 mph

Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello

Temperature

Forecast

32° / 23°

Actual

37° / 23°

Error: -5°F high, 0°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

11 / 21 mph

Actual

8 / 30 mph

Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence

Temperature

Forecast

28° / 20°

Actual

27° / 19°

Error: 1°F high, 1°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

0.3"

Actual

±0.3" off

Wind Speed

Forecast

11 / 24 mph

Actual

8 / 30 mph

Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester

Temperature

Forecast

29° / 22°

Actual

30° / 21°

Error: -1°F high, 1°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

0.2"

Actual

0.2"

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

14 / 25 mph

Actual

12 / 33 mph

Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea

Temperature

Forecast

30° / 22°

Actual

35° / 22°

Error: -5°F high, 0°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

0.4"

Actual

±0.4" off

Wind Speed

Forecast

12 / 22 mph

Actual

9 / 26 mph

Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson

Temperature

Forecast

28° / 23°

Actual

30° / 23°

Error: -2°F high, 0°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

0.5"

Actual

0.64"

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

10 / 20 mph

Actual

8 / 35 mph

Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan

Temperature

Forecast

30° / 23°

Actual

34° / 21°

Error: -4°F high, 2°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

0.4"

Actual

3.64"

±3.24" off

Wind Speed

Forecast

10 / 21 mph

Actual

5 / 38 mph

Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Cold Clipper Brings Light Snow Dusting to Eastern Kentucky

A moisture-starved Arctic clipper system will pivot across the Commonwealth today. Expect a sharp contrast between a sunny but frigid western Kentucky and a gray, snowy eastern half. While accumulations will be minor (generally a dusting to half an inch), sub-freezing temperatures will allow for immediate sticking on elevated surfaces.

Why is this happening?

Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup

Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the cold temperatures and the general location of precipitation. Lower confidence in the exact accumulation totals due to the high risk of sub-cloud evaporation (virga) and sensitive snow-to-liquid ratios.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield

Frigid Sunshine

Sunny

38°/ 21°

A bright but very cold day is expected across the Purchase. Plenty of sunshine will be present, but northerly winds will keep wind chills in the teens and 20s for much of the morning.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind9 mph / 18 mph

Wind Chill11°

The "Why"

Surface high pressure maintains a dry column with PWAT values below 0.20 inches. Strong radiational cooling overnight will drop temperatures into the low 20s.

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield

Cold and Clearing

Cloudy

33°/ 20°

Expect a few morning clouds to give way to sunshine by the afternoon. It will remain quite chilly with temperatures struggling to climb much above the freezing mark.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind13 mph / 22 mph

Wind Chill8°

The "Why"

Low-level moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion will create a stratocumulus deck through 15Z. No measurable precipitation is expected as the mid-levels remain dry.

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton

Brisk and Bright

Sunny

36°/ 20°

The sun will be out, but it won't offer much warmth. Brisk northwesterly winds will make it feel much colder than the actual thermometer reading throughout the day.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind11 mph / 20 mph

Wind Chill9°

The "Why"

Zonal flow aloft with deep-layer drying is evident in model soundings. Subsidence behind the clipper will erode any morning cloud cover quickly.

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin

Chilly and Gray Morning

Cloudy

36°/ 22°

A cloudy start to the day will lead to a slow clearing by the evening. High temperatures will remain well below average for mid-March, staying in the mid-30s.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind11 mph / 19 mph

Wind Chill12°

The "Why"

Low-level stratocumulus will persist under a weak inversion at 900mb. Minimal moisture in the ice nucleation zone precludes any snow shower threat.

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville

Gray, Blustery, and Cold

Cloudy

31°/ 21°

Louisville will see a gray start with plenty of clouds and a few passing flurries possible. No accumulation is expected as the air remains very dry near the surface.

Precipitation20%

Wind12 mph / 21 mph

Wind Chill9°

The "Why"

Mid-level moisture associated with the shortwave will cross the area between 6 AM and Noon. Significant dewpoint depressions below 850mb suggest a high virga risk.

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield

Cold and Overcast

Cloudy

32°/ 21°

Expect a cloudy and blustery day around Elizabethtown. While a few snowflakes may fly, the air is too dry for any meaningful accumulation.

Precipitation20%

Wind13 mph / 22 mph

Wind Chill9°

The "Why"

Vorticity advection is strongest during the morning hours, but the moisture profile is limited to the 700mb layer, preventing anything more than stray flurries.

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello

Morning Flurries

Cloudy

32°/ 23°

A few light snow flurries are possible this morning around Somerset. No accumulation is expected, but it will be a biting cold day with temperatures barely reaching freezing.

Precipitation30%

Wind11 mph / 21 mph

Wind Chill12°

Accumulation

The "Why"

Upslope flow on the Cumberland Plateau will provide enough lift for light snow flurries despite the lack of deep moisture. QPF is negligible.

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE

Covington, Florence, Independence

Light Snow and Frigid

Snow

28°/ 20°

Expect periods of light snow during the morning. A dusting of around 0.3 inches is possible, particularly on grassy surfaces and car tops. Roads should stay mostly wet but watch for slick spots on bridges.

Precipitation80%

Wind11 mph / 24 mph

Wind Chill8°

Accumulation

Snow

0.3"

The "Why"

Multiple pulses of energy and steep low-level lapse rates will support light snowfall. Cold air ensures high SLRs near 15:1.

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester

Morning Dusting of Snow

Snow

29°/ 22°

Light snow showers will move through during the morning, potentially leaving a dusting of 0.2 inches. Brisk winds will blow these flurries around, making it feel like it's in the teens.

Precipitation80%

Wind14 mph / 25 mph

Wind Chill9°

Accumulation

Snow

0.2"

The "Why"

Saturation within the Dendritic Growth Zone interacts with a tight pressure gradient. Any accumulation will be light and fluffy, easily shifted by 25 mph gusts.

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE

Richmond, Danville, Berea

Minor Snow Accumulation

Snow

30°/ 22°

The foothills will see consistent light snow showers this morning, resulting in accumulations around 0.4 inches. It will be exceptionally cold with wind chills in the single digits at times.

Precipitation80%

Wind12 mph / 22 mph

Wind Chill11°

Accumulation

Snow

0.4"

The "Why"

Enhanced mechanical lift over the Knobs will sustain snowfall longer than in the core Bluegrass. SLRs are forecast at 12:1 to 15:1 given the cold thermal stack.

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson

Light Snow Dusting

Snow

28°/ 23°

A period of light snow is expected during the morning hours. While not a major storm, accumulations around 0.5 inches are possible, leading to potential slick spots on bridges and overpasses.

Precipitation80%

Wind10 mph / 20 mph

Wind Chill16°

Accumulation

Snow

0.5"

The "Why"

Northeast KY is positioned in the left-exit region of the 300mb jet, providing the best synoptic lift. Thermal profiles support a 10:1 to 12:1 snow ratio.

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan

Morning Mountain Snow

Snow

30°/ 23°

The mountains will see light snow fall off and on through the morning. Expect accumulations around 0.4 inches on grassy surfaces and higher peaks, with valley roads staying mostly wet.

Precipitation80%

Wind10 mph / 21 mph

Wind Chill14°

Accumulation

Snow

0.4"

The "Why"

Orographic enhancement on northwest-facing slopes will assist in squeezing out available moisture. A 10:1 ratio is used as temperatures approach 30F by mid-day.

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

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The 'Boom' Scenario

If the shortwave digs slightly deeper and the sub-cloud dry layer saturates faster, fluffy snow ratios could reach 15:1, leading to widespread 1-2 inch totals across the Bluegrass and Northeast Kentucky.

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The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry slot remains entrenched, most of the energy will result in virga or 'diamond dust' flurries that fail to accumulate on the ground, leaving only the high peaks of the Southeast with a dusting.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Virga Void

The NAM and GFS show a significant dry layer below 3,000 feet that threatens to evaporate snow before it reaches the surface in Central Kentucky, while the GEM and Euro are more aggressive with light measurable accumulations reaching the ground.

NAM

GFS

EURO

Why GEM Wins

GEM's handling of shallow Arctic moisture and high snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) is typically superior in clipper setups. Soundings show sufficient saturation to overcome the dry layer in the North and East.

Affected Regions

BLUEGRASS CORENORTHERN KYLOUISVILLE METRO

The Arctic Floor

GEM is significantly colder with overnight lows (teens) compared to the GFS/Euro consensus (low 20s).

GEM

GFS

EURO

Why BLEND Wins

While GEM's cold bias is noted, the presence of cloud cover in the east will likely prevent the extreme radiational cooling GEM suggests, though the west will be closer to GEM's values.

Affected Regions

PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILEBLUEGRASS CORE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The atmosphere is entirely sub-freezing from the surface to the tropopause. 850mb temperatures are progged between -10C and -12C, creating a purely frozen profile with no melting layers.

Thermal Boundary

The effective freezing line and 0C isotherm at 850mb are located well south of the Tennessee border near the Gulf States.

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal trend is likely in the east due to persistent cloud cover, while the west follows a standard but suppressed diurnal curve with highs 15 degrees below normal.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A secondary Arctic surface trough passed through overnight, evidenced by a wind shift to the northwest and gusts up to 25 mph.

Jet Stream Support

The region is influenced by the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet, providing broad synoptic-scale ascent.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with a vorticity maximum of 0.00035 s^-1 is the primary kinematic driver for the morning snow showers.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is moisture-starved with PWATs below 0.20 inches. Saturated layers are thin and focused in the mid-levels, leading to a high virga risk.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be stratiform light snow and flurries, with occasional convective bursts in the northern counties due to steep low-level lapse rates.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk. Soils are cold and liquid equivalent precipitation is negligible (less than 0.05 inches).

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

3% Illumination

Moonrise

7:12 AM

Moonset

6:51 PM

Purchase Area

Sunrise

8:03 AM

Sunset

8:04 PM

Civil Dawn

7:37 AM

Civil Dusk

8:30 PM

Northwest Pennyrile

Sunrise

7:57 AM

Sunset

7:58 PM

Civil Dawn

7:31 AM

Civil Dusk

8:24 PM

Southwest Pennyrile

Sunrise

7:59 AM

Sunset

7:59 PM

Civil Dawn

7:33 AM

Civil Dusk

8:25 PM

Barren River

Sunrise

7:55 AM

Sunset

7:55 PM

Civil Dawn

7:29 AM

Civil Dusk

8:21 PM

Louisville Metro

Sunrise

7:52 AM

Sunset

7:52 PM

Civil Dawn

7:26 AM

Civil Dusk

8:19 PM

Lincoln Trail

Sunrise

7:52 AM

Sunset

7:53 PM

Civil Dawn

7:26 AM

Civil Dusk

8:19 PM

Lake Cumberland

Sunrise

7:47 AM

Sunset

7:48 PM

Civil Dawn

7:21 AM

Civil Dusk

8:14 PM

Northern Kentucky

Sunrise

7:47 AM

Sunset

7:47 PM

Civil Dawn

7:21 AM

Civil Dusk

8:14 PM

Inner Bluegrass

Sunrise

7:47 AM

Sunset

7:47 PM

Civil Dawn

7:21 AM

Civil Dusk

8:14 PM

Bluegrass Foothills

Sunrise

7:46 AM

Sunset

7:47 PM

Civil Dawn

7:20 AM

Civil Dusk

8:13 PM

Northeast Kentucky

Sunrise

7:40 AM

Sunset

7:40 PM

Civil Dawn

7:13 AM

Civil Dusk

8:06 PM

Southeast Kentucky

Sunrise

7:42 AM

Sunset

7:42 PM

Civil Dawn

7:16 AM

Civil Dusk

8:08 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.

View NAM Analysis View GFS Analysis View ECMWF Analysis View GEM Analysis