Saturday, March 14
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 13 at 11:57AM CDT until March 14 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River will continue to fall and should fall below flood stage at J.T. Myers Dam late this evening and Shawneetown late Saturday evening.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN Until just after midnight tonight. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM CDT Friday the stage was 37.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this evening and continue falling to 20.7 feet Monday, March 23. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 13 at 11:57AM CDT until March 15 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River will continue to fall and should fall below flood stage at J.T. Myers Dam late this evening and Shawneetown late Saturday evening.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until early Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Friday the stage was 35.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tomorrow evening and continue falling to 19.4 feet Monday, March 23. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 14 at 10:45AM CDT until March 16 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 mph.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ Sunday to 7 AM CDT /8 AM EDT/ Monday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 14 at 11:50AM EDT until March 16 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and central Kentucky.
WHEN From 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Sunday to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 14 at 12:03PM CDT until March 16 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Hardin, Gallatin, Union and Crittenden Counties. .Minor flooding is occurring on the Ohio River due to recent heavy rainfall across the region. At Shawneetown, the river is forecast to remain above flood stage until Monday morning. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until early Monday morning.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 34.6 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 11:30 AM CDT Saturday was 35.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tomorrow evening and continue falling to 20.9 feet Tuesday, March 24. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Dense Smoke Advisory
Dense Smoke Advisory issued March 14 at 3:00PM EDT until March 15 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Localized visibility to under 1/4 mile possible in dense smoke.
WHERE Portions of Clay and Leslie County. Routes most prone to impacts from dense smoke will be the Hal Rogers Parkway between Manchester and Thousandsticks; as well as US-421 and KY-66 in the vicinity of Big Creek and Peabody.
WHEN From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous in smoke tonight and Sunday morning.
Persons with respiratory illnesses should remain indoors to avoid inhaling smoke. If driving through dense smoke, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Dense Smoke Advisory
Dense Smoke Advisory issued March 14 at 3:00PM EDT until March 15 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Dense Smoke Advisory, localized visibility to under 1/4 mile possible in dense smoke. For the Wind Advisory, south winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.
WHERE For the Dense Smoke Advisory, locally dense smoke is expected west of I-75, primarily over northern McCreary, northern Wayne, southern Pulaski and southwestern Laurel Counties. Routes particularly prone to impacts from dense smoke will be KY-90 between Cumberland Falls State Resort Park and Monticello; KY-27 from Pine Knot to Somerset; KY-192 between London and Somerset; and the Hal Rogers Parkway from I-75 to the vicinity of Somerset. For the Wind Advisory, all of Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, and Wayne Counties.
WHEN For the Dense Smoke Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous in smoke tonight and Sunday morning. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Persons with respiratory illnesses should remain indoors to avoid inhaling smoke. If driving through dense smoke, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 14 at 3:00PM EDT until March 15 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT For the Dense Smoke Advisory, localized visibility to under 1/4 mile possible in dense smoke. For the Wind Advisory, south winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.
WHERE For the Dense Smoke Advisory, locally dense smoke is expected west of I-75, primarily over northern McCreary, northern Wayne, southern Pulaski and southwestern Laurel Counties. Routes particularly prone to impacts from dense smoke will be KY-90 between Cumberland Falls State Resort Park and Monticello; KY-27 from Pine Knot to Somerset; KY-192 between London and Somerset; and the Hal Rogers Parkway from I-75 to the vicinity of Somerset. For the Wind Advisory, all of Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, and Wayne Counties.
WHEN For the Dense Smoke Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday. For the Wind Advisory, from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous in smoke tonight and Sunday morning. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Persons with respiratory illnesses should remain indoors to avoid inhaling smoke. If driving through dense smoke, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 14 at 3:00PM EDT until March 15 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph expected.
WHERE Bath, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell, Rockcastle, and Jackson Counties.
WHEN From 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous in smoke tonight and Sunday morning. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Dense Smoke Advisory
Dense Smoke Advisory issued March 14 at 3:00PM EDT until March 15 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Localized visibility to under 1/4 mile possible in dense smoke.
WHERE Whitley County, mainly west of I-75 and north of KY-478. KY-90 between US-25W and the Cumberland Falls State Resort Park Routes will be particularly prone to impacts from dense smoke.
WHEN From 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
Persons with respiratory illnesses should remain indoors to avoid inhaling smoke. If driving through dense smoke, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 14 at 7:39PM EDT until March 16 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
WHEN From 11 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, March 14, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Mild and Breezy Saturday; Spring Warmth Surges West
A tranquil and unseasonably mild Saturday is expected across the Commonwealth. High pressure centered to the southeast will maintain dry conditions statewide. While northern and eastern regions will contend with stubborn cloud cover from a moisture-starved disturbance, the western half of the state will enjoy abundant sunshine and temperatures reaching the 70-degree mark.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement across all guidance for a 0% precipitation risk and high confidence in the overall temperature gradient, with only minor timing differences on cloud clearing.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures reaching 70 degrees. It will be breezy by the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Morning clouds will give way to a bright and pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid-60s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Enjoy plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching near 70 degrees. A bit breezy at times.
Barren River
A fantastic day for outdoor activities with clear skies and temperatures in the upper 60s.
Louisville Metro
The day will start with stubborn clouds, but clearing is expected by midday with highs near 60.
Lincoln Trail
A very nice day across the region with light winds and temperatures reaching the low 60s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a beautiful day with clear skies and pleasant temperatures in the mid-60s.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a gray day with clouds hanging around for much of the day. Highs only in the low 50s.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a mix of sun and clouds with mild temperatures in the upper 50s. Breezy this evening.
Bluegrass Foothills
A pleasant day is in store with plenty of sunshine and highs reaching the 60-degree mark.
Northeast Kentucky
Clouds will be slow to clear, but dry conditions will prevail with highs in the mid-50s.
Southeast Kentucky
Enjoy a beautiful, sunny Saturday in the mountains with temperatures warming into the low 60s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level cloud deck erodes faster than modeled in the Bluegrass, temperatures could over-perform by 5 degrees, pushing the 70-degree line as far east as I-75.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the low-level moisture remains trapped under the subsidence inversion, Northern and Northeast Kentucky could remain gray and chilly all day, with highs struggling to reach 50 degrees.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Warm Sector Surge
Models disagree on the eastward extent of the 70-degree isotherm, with the GEM/ECMWF being more aggressive with warm air advection than the cooler NAM/GFS.
Why BLEND Wins
Given strong March insolation and southwesterly flow, a blend of the warmer ECMWF and GEM is preferred, as global models often under-forecast the magnitude of a building ridge.
The Great Cloud Divide
The GFS suggests a predominantly clear day statewide, whereas the NAM and GEM keep a persistent stratocumulus deck over the northern third of Kentucky due to a moisture-starved shortwave.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles low-level moisture trapped beneath subsidence inversions with superior vertical resolution compared to the GFS 'smear' effect.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.