Friday, March 13
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 12 at 11:58AM CDT until March 13 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown .The Ohio River will continue to fall to below flood stage at all sites through this weekend.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN Until tomorrow morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 36.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 24.2 feet Sunday, March 22. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 12 at 11:58AM CDT until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown .The Ohio River will continue to fall to below flood stage at all sites through this weekend.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN Until early Saturday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 38.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tomorrow evening and continue falling to 23.9 feet Sunday, March 22. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 12 at 11:58AM CDT until March 15 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown .The Ohio River will continue to fall to below flood stage at all sites through this weekend.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until late Sunday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 36.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday afternoon. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:31PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:31PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 9 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:36PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:36PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 4:56PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 7:33PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 11:55PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 11:55PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 9 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 12:51AM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 1:09AM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 1:49AM CDT until March 13 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Breckinridge, Hardin, and Hancock Counties.
WHEN From 5 AM CDT /6 AM EDT/ early this morning to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 1:49AM CDT until March 13 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Larue, Casey, Marion, and Taylor Counties.
WHEN From 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 1:49AM CDT until March 13 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 1:49AM CDT until March 13 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 13 at 3:51AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
A strong cold front will approach the region from the northwest later today, resulting a gusty southwest winds. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely across south central Kentucky from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Strong wind gusts could result in scattered minor tree damage and displacement of loose outdoor items. Travel may also be difficult for high profile vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 13 at 5:21AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected through early afternoon with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. A few higher gusts may briefly reach up to 40 mph. The strong wind gusts may result in loose outdoor items being blown around along with minor tree damage. Travel may also be difficult for high profile vehicles, especially on east-west oriented roadways.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 7:54AM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph are expected today. The wind will diminish this evening.
WHERE The Wind Advisory is for portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN The Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS The gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 7:54AM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected today. The wind will diminish this evening.
WHERE The Wind Advisory is for portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN The Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS The gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 8:09AM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 13 at 11:37AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
An approaching dry cold front will lead to gusty southwest winds this afternoon. The winds will generally be southwest at 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph, strongest winds north of the Mountain Parkway. These strong winds combined with humidity values falling into the 25 to 35 percent range will lead to an elevated risk for rapid wildfire spread. Remember that Kentucky regulations make it illegal to burn between the hours of 6 AM and 6 PM within 150 feet of any woodland or brushland during the Spring Forest Fire Season.
Red Flag Warning
Red Flag Warning issued March 13 at 12:29PM EDT until March 13 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect until 7 PM EDT this evening. * AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 044 Fleming, Fire weather zone 050 Montgomery, Fire weather zone 051 Bath, Fire weather zone 052 Rowan, Fire weather zone 058 Estill, Fire weather zone 059 Powell, Fire weather zone 060 Menifee, Fire weather zone 068 Rockcastle, Fire weather zone 069 Jackson, Fire weather zone 079 Pulaski, Fire weather zone 080 Laurel, Fire weather zone 083 Wayne, Fire weather zone 084 McCreary, Fire weather zone 085 Whitley, Fire weather zone 086 Knox, Fire weather zone 087 Bell, Fire weather zone 088 Harlan, Fire weather zone 104 Elliott, Fire weather zone 106 Morgan, Fire weather zone 107 Johnson, Fire weather zone 108 Wolfe, Fire weather zone 109 Magoffin, Fire weather zone 110 Floyd, Fire weather zone 111 Lee, Fire weather zone 112 Breathitt, Fire weather zone 113 Knott, Fire weather zone 114 Owsley, Fire weather zone 115 Perry, Fire weather zone 116 Clay, Fire weather zone 117 Leslie, Fire weather zone 118 Letcher, Fire weather zone 119 Martin, and Fire weather zone 120 Pike.
WIND Southwest winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will occur north of the Mountain Parkway.
HUMIDITY Relative humidity values will bottom out in the 20 to 30 percent range for most locations.
IMPACTS any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 13 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
THIS IS A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY. THE WILDFIRE DANGER IS ELEVATED TODAY FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. REMEMBER THAT KENTUCKY REGULATIONS MAKE IT ILLEGAL TO BURN BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 6 AM TO 6 PM WITHIN 150 FEET OF ANY WOODLAND OR BRUSHLAND DURING THE SPRING FOREST FIRE SEASON.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 13 at 11:57AM CDT until March 14 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River will continue to fall and should fall below flood stage at J.T. Myers Dam late this evening and Shawneetown late Saturday evening.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN Until just after midnight tonight. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM CDT Friday the stage was 37.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this evening and continue falling to 20.7 feet Monday, March 23. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 13 at 11:57AM CDT until March 15 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .The Ohio River will continue to fall and should fall below flood stage at J.T. Myers Dam late this evening and Shawneetown late Saturday evening.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until early Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Friday the stage was 35.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tomorrow evening and continue falling to 19.4 feet Monday, March 23. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 1:41PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 2:19PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 2:52PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph through the late afternoon.
WHERE Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 2:52PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph through the late afternoon hours.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and north central and northwest Kentucky.
WHEN Until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 13 at 3:16PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN Until 8 PM EDT this evening.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, March 13, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Strong Gradient Winds and Sunny Skies Across Kentucky
A potent pressure gradient developing between a departing high-pressure system and an approaching trough will bring significant wind gusts to the Commonwealth today. Despite the blustery conditions, a lack of atmospheric moisture will keep the state dry with clearing skies and mild temperatures.
Confidence Assessment
Extremely high confidence in the dry forecast across all models. The only point of contention is the exact peak of wind gusts and the duration of morning cloud cover in the north.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful, sunny day with temperatures reaching the low 60s. It will be breezy with gusts up to 45 mph, but the winds will gradually settle by late afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
A clear day is ahead with plenty of sunshine. Strong winds will be the main story, especially near the Ohio River, where gusts could reach 47 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunny skies will dominate with temperatures warming into the mid-60s. Hold onto your hats as morning wind gusts approach 43 mph.
Barren River
After a chilly start, temperatures will climb quickly to near 62 degrees under sunny skies. Gusty winds will be present throughout the morning and early afternoon.
Louisville Metro
The day will start with clouds and strong winds, but sunshine will break through by the afternoon. Highs will stay near 58 degrees with gusts to 45 mph.
Lincoln Trail
Sunny but very windy. Residents in higher elevations should be prepared for gusts reaching 48 mph today. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s.
Lake Cumberland
A beautiful sunny day with highs near 60 degrees. It will be windy, especially on the lake, with gusts up to 40 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Expect very windy and gray conditions. Clouds will linger much of the day, and gusts could reach a powerful 50 mph. Use caution when driving.
Inner Bluegrass
Winds will be very strong in the Lexington area today, with gusts reaching 49 mph. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the morning before clearing late.
Bluegrass Foothills
It will be a windy day with gusts as high as 48 mph. Clouds will stay overhead for much of the morning, with highs reaching 57 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
After a cold start, sunshine will help temperatures reach near 59 degrees. Strong winds will develop by noon, with gusts reaching 46 mph.
Southeast Kentucky
A sunny and beautiful day for the mountains. While ridge tops will see gusts to 42 mph, the valleys will stay slightly calmer with highs near 60.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the boundary layer mixes deeper than the 800mb level as suggested by the more aggressive NAM soundings, wind gusts could over-perform, reaching 55-60 mph across the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky plateaus.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If morning stratocumulus clouds in the northern half of the state fail to scatter out by lunch, surface heating will be limited, keeping wind gusts capped below 40 mph and afternoon highs in the low 50s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northern Cloud Shield
The NAM and GEM hold onto low-level moisture (925mb-850mb) much longer in the northern tier, forecasting 'Cloudy' conditions, whereas the GFS and Euro clear the skies by 10 AM.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM and NAM better account for the trapped post-frontal moisture often found in the Ohio River valley; however, the GEM's intermediate clearing timing is the most realistic compromise.
The Momentum Mix-Down
A significant disagreement exists regarding the magnitude of wind gusts. NAM and GFS suggest gusts exceeding 50 mph based on deep vertical mixing, while the ECMWF maintains a more conservative 35-40 mph forecast.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves the momentum transfer within the boundary layer more accurately in high-gradient, dry-slot scenarios. Its higher vertical resolution captures the 850mb LLJ's interaction with the surface more effectively.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.