Thursday, March 12
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 11 at 11:04AM CDT until March 13 at 8:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana... Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon affecting Union, Vanderburgh, Posey and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam affecting Union and Posey Counties. Ohio River at Newburgh Dam affecting Vanderburgh, Spencer, Warrick, Daviess and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Union, Crittenden, Gallatin and Hardin Counties. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN Until Friday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 36.7 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise to 36.8 feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Friday morning to 31.7 feet early Monday afternoon. It will rise to 31.8 feet Tuesday evening. It will then fall again and remain below flood stage. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 11 at 11:04AM CDT until March 14 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana... Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon affecting Union, Vanderburgh, Posey and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam affecting Union and Posey Counties. Ohio River at Newburgh Dam affecting Vanderburgh, Spencer, Warrick, Daviess and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Union, Crittenden, Gallatin and Hardin Counties. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN Until Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 38.2 feet. - Forecast...The river will fall to 38.1 feet this afternoon. It will then rise to 38.3 feet tomorrow morning. It will fall below flood stage late Saturday morning to 35.5 feet Monday evening. It will then rise to 35.7 feet Tuesday evening. It will fall again and remain below flood stage. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 11 at 11:04AM CDT until March 12 at 8:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana... Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon affecting Union, Vanderburgh, Posey and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam affecting Union and Posey Counties. Ohio River at Newburgh Dam affecting Vanderburgh, Spencer, Warrick, Daviess and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Union, Crittenden, Gallatin and Hardin Counties. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN Until tomorrow evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 39.3 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise to 39.8 feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon to 35.1 feet early Sunday afternoon. It will rise to 35.9 feet early Tuesday afternoon. It will then fall again and remain below flood stage. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 11 at 11:04AM CDT until March 16 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Indiana... Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon affecting Union, Vanderburgh, Posey and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam affecting Union and Posey Counties. Ohio River at Newburgh Dam affecting Vanderburgh, Spencer, Warrick, Daviess and Henderson Counties. Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Union, Crittenden, Gallatin and Hardin Counties. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 36.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.6 feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Monday morning. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 11 at 7:41PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 741 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Bobs Fork to Hosea to near Hoskinston to Mozelle to Miracle. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Hazard, Harlan, Hindman, Hyden, Letcher, Cumberland, Loyall, Evarts, Vicco, Wallins Creek, Blackey, Elic, Big Fork, Cody, Bobs Creek, Sandy Fork, Leatherwood, Hoskinston, Bledsoe, and Dizney. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 35 and 59. Kentucky Highway 80 in Knott County between mile markers 5 and 7. Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 9 and 15.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 11 at 7:53PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 753 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Lovely to Laura to near Piso to Coal Run Village to Beaver. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Pikeville, Coal Run Village, Forest Hills, Warfield, Huddy, Meta, Jamboree, Pilgrim, Fishtrap Lake, Garden Village, Piso, Prince, Buckhorn Hollow, Lovely, Osborn, Jarad, Woodman, Threeforks, Bradbury, and Hatfield Station. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 24. U.S. Highway 23 in Floyd County near mile marker 1. U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 16 and 32.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 12 at 11:58AM CDT until March 13 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown .The Ohio River will continue to fall to below flood stage at all sites through this weekend.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN Until tomorrow morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 36.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 24.2 feet Sunday, March 22. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 12 at 11:58AM CDT until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown .The Ohio River will continue to fall to below flood stage at all sites through this weekend.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN Until early Saturday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 38.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage tomorrow evening and continue falling to 23.9 feet Sunday, March 22. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 12 at 11:58AM CDT until March 15 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown .The Ohio River will continue to fall to below flood stage at all sites through this weekend.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until late Sunday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 36.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Sunday afternoon. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:31PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, south central, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:31PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Sustained southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 9 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:36PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and north central Kentucky.
WHEN From 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 3:36PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of east central, north central, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 4:56PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and central, northeast, northern, southeast, southern, and western West Virginia.
WHEN From 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Secure outdoor objects. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Wind Advisory
Wind Advisory issued March 12 at 7:33PM EDT until March 13 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, March 12, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Slushy Snow Southeast; Sunshine Returns Elsewhere
A departing shortwave trough will bring rain and a transition to wet snow in Southeast Kentucky early Thursday. Rapid clearing will follow from west to east by midday, leading to a breezy and chilly afternoon statewide.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the clearing trend for the western two-thirds of the state, but significant model disagreement on precipitation type and accumulation in the mountains leads to a lower overall score.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A beautiful and bright day is ahead for Western Kentucky. Skies will be completely clear with a brisk northwest wind.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a crisp day with plenty of sunshine and a noticeable breeze. Morning clouds will clear away before most people head to work.
Southwest Pennyrile
It will be a dry and sunny day, but you will need a jacket for the wind. Temperatures will reach the lower 50s by the afternoon.
Barren River
A few light sprinkles may linger before dawn, but the afternoon will be sunny. Expect a pleasant but breezy day with highs near 52 degrees.
Louisville Metro
The city will start the day with gray skies, but sunshine returns by midday. It will be a dry and seasonal day with highs around 50.
Lincoln Trail
A cloudy start to the morning will lead to a bright and breezy afternoon. No rain or snow is expected for the area.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a few rain or snow showers early in the morning. Any accumulation will be very light and restricted to grassy surfaces.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a chilly and gray start to the day near the Ohio River. Skies will eventually clear by late afternoon, but temperatures will remain cool.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a raw morning with gray skies and wind chills in the 20s. Sunshine will return for the second half of the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
A few wet snowflakes may mix in with morning rain showers. Accumulations around 0.5 inches are possible, primarily on the grass.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect wet roads for the morning commute with a mix of rain and snow. Sunshine will finally break through the clouds by the evening.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will transition to wet, slushy snow during the early morning hours. Accumulations around 1 inch are expected, mainly on grass and higher terrain.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If dynamic cooling is maximized and the moisture plume slows, higher elevations in the Southeast Coalfields could see 2-3 inches of heavy, wet snow, with a brief slushy coating extending into the Bluegrass Foothills.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the warmer Euro/GEM solutions verify, the moisture exits before the 850mb zero-degree isotherm arrives, resulting in a cold morning rain for the east with no snow accumulation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Southeast Slush Struggle
A sharp disagreement exists regarding the thermal profile in the Southeast Coalfields. The NAM and GFS are cold enough to support a transition from rain to snow before the moisture exits, while the Euro and GEM keep the column just warm enough for a pure rain event.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the shallow cold air and dynamic cooling associated with departing shortwaves better than global models. Its logic regarding orographic lift and 850mb thermal timing is consistent with similar past events.
Wind Gust Magnitude
GEM and NAM suggest a much tighter pressure gradient behind the front, yielding gusts near 30 mph, while the Euro is significantly calmer.
Why GEM Wins
Post-frontal pressure rises and a 30kt low-level jet suggest the gustier solution is more physically likely as the boundary layer mixes during the afternoon.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.