Forecast For

Monday, March 9

Updated Mar 9, 7:00 AM EDT

Confidence

85%

Summary Regions Outcomes Battles Analysis Almanac Charts

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 10:27 PM -> Mar 9, 1:30 AM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 14 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Mount Vernon .Recent heavy rain will raise the Ohio River into minor flood Sunday or Monday, with a crest expected Wednesday and Thursday. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.

WHEN From late Sunday night to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 29.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Monday morning to a crest of 37.2 feet early Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 10:27 PM -> Mar 9, 1:30 AM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 15 at 11:17AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.

WHEN From late Sunday night to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 7:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 32.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Monday morning to a crest of 40.4 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 10:27 PM -> Mar 9, 1:30 AM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 15 at 11:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.

WHEN From Sunday afternoon to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:30 PM CST Saturday the stage was 31.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 37.3 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 10:27 PM -> Mar 9, 1:30 AM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 14 at 1:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.

WHEN From Sunday morning to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 36.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late tomorrow morning to a crest of 41.8 feet early Wednesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

Flood Warning

Mar 8, 11:49 AM -> Mar 9, 2:00 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 15 at 11:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, and J.T. Myers Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.

WHEN From this afternoon to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 32.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this afternoon to a crest of 37.3 feet early Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Flood Warning

Mar 8, 11:49 AM -> Mar 9, 2:00 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 15 at 10:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.

WHEN From Monday morning to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 34.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow morning to a crest of 40.1 feet early Thursday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Flood Warning

Mar 8, 11:49 AM -> Mar 9, 2:00 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 14 at 10:25AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.

WHEN From this evening to late Saturday morning.

IMPACTS At 40.0 feet, Farm land and some main roads are flooded in places southwest and west of Mt. Vernon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 33.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this evening to a crest of 38.3 feet Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Flood Warning

Mar 8, 11:49 AM -> Mar 9, 2:00 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 14 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.

WHEN From this morning to early Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 38.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 41.7 feet Tuesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday morning. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Flood Warning

Mar 8, 9:21 PM -> Mar 9, 11:30 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 8 at 8:21PM CDT until March 15 at 11:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Union, Gallatin, Crittenden and Hardin Counties. .Minor flooding is occurring on the Ohio River due to recent heavy rainfall across the region. At Shawneetown, the river is forecast to remain above flood stage until March 15th. For the Ohio River...including Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.

WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.

WHEN Until Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 7:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 33.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 37.3 feet early Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.

Instructions

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

Dense Fog Advisory

Mar 9, 4:07 AM -> Mar 9, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued March 9 at 3:07AM CDT until March 9 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky.

WHEN Until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning.

IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Instructions

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Dense Fog Advisory

Mar 9, 5:10 AM -> Mar 9, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued March 9 at 4:10AM CDT until March 9 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

WHAT Visibility one quarter to one half mile in dense fog.

WHERE Butler County.

WHEN Until 9 AM CDT this morning.

IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Instructions

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Dense Fog Advisory

Mar 9, 5:10 AM -> Mar 9, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued March 9 at 4:10AM CDT until March 9 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky.

WHEN Until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning.

IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Instructions

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Dense Fog Advisory

Mar 9, 5:21 AM -> Mar 9, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued March 9 at 5:21AM EDT until March 9 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Visibility one-quarter mile or less in dense fog.

WHERE McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne, Whitley, Bell, Harlan, and Knox Counties.

WHEN Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Instructions

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 9, 5:28 AM -> Mar 9, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 9 at 5:28AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Pockets of locally dense fog, especially along area rivers, may cause difficult travel conditions for your Monday morning commute. Please be prepared for pockets of sharply reduced visibility. When encountering fog, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and increase your following distance from the vehicle in front of you. Consider allowing a few extra minutes time to reach your destination safely.

Special Weather Statement

Mar 9, 6:23 AM -> Mar 9, 9:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 9 at 5:23AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Patchy fog has developed with a few areas seeing locally dense fog at times. The dense fog will result in visibilities briefly dropping as low as one-quarter mile at times. If traveling this morning, please remember to slow down, use your low-beam headlights and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Dense Fog Advisory

Mar 9, 6:35 AM -> Mar 9, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued March 9 at 5:35AM CDT until March 9 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

WHAT Visibility less than one half mile in dense fog.

WHERE Boyle, Mercer, Hardin, Larue, Nelson, Washington KY, Grayson, Lincoln, and Marion Counties.

WHEN Until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning.

IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Instructions

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Dense Fog Advisory

Mar 9, 6:35 AM -> Mar 9, 10:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Dense Fog Advisory issued March 9 at 5:35AM CDT until March 9 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky.

WHEN Until 9 AM CDT /10 AM EDT/ this morning.

IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

Instructions

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Flood Warning

Mar 9, 12:04 PM -> Mar 10, 2:15 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 14 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, and Newburgh Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.

WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.

WHEN Until late Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 36.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this evening to a crest of 38.5 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Flood Warning

Mar 9, 12:04 PM -> Mar 10, 2:15 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 13 at 9:24PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.

WHEN Until late Friday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 39.7 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise to a crest of 41.0 feet early Tuesday afternoon. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Flood Warning

Mar 9, 12:04 PM -> Mar 10, 2:15 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 16 at 10:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.

WHEN Until Monday, March 16. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 34.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.7 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Monday, March 16. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Flood Warning

Mar 9, 12:04 PM -> Mar 10, 2:15 PM

Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.

WHEN Until early Saturday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 35.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 37.4 feet early Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Friday evening. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.

Instructions

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.

Confidence

85%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, March 9, 2026.

Temperature

±3.4°F

Average Error

Precipitation

±0.01"

Average Error

Wind Speed

±6.0mph

Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield

Temperature

Forecast

70° / 45°

Actual

72° / 42°

Error: -2°F high, 3°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

0.05"

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

14 / 32 mph

Actual

7 / 27 mph

Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield

Temperature

Forecast

71° / 44°

Actual

74° / 40°

Error: -3°F high, 4°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

14 / 31 mph

Actual

7 / 27 mph

Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton

Temperature

Forecast

71° / 46°

Actual

76° / 39°

Error: -5°F high, 7°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

0.02"

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

15 / 28 mph

Actual

7 / 29 mph

Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin

Temperature

Forecast

73° / 45°

Actual

74° / 37°

Error: -1°F high, 8°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

12 / 29 mph

Actual

5 / 21 mph

Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville

Temperature

Forecast

71° / 44°

Actual

69° / 44°

Error: 2°F high, 0°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

12 / 30 mph

Actual

9 / 26 mph

Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield

Temperature

Forecast

70° / 43°

Actual

73° / 32°

Error: -3°F high, 11°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

14 / 30 mph

Actual

5 / 24 mph

Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello

Temperature

Forecast

71° / 49°

Actual

75° / 41°

Error: -4°F high, 8°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

10 / 24 mph

Actual

4 / 24 mph

Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence

Temperature

Forecast

68° / 41°

Actual

72° / 39°

Error: -4°F high, 2°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

12 / 32 mph

Actual

6 / 28 mph

Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester

Temperature

Forecast

69° / 44°

Actual

71° / 45°

Error: -2°F high, -1°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

12 / 31 mph

Actual

8 / 30 mph

Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea

Temperature

Forecast

70° / 46°

Actual

74° / 32°

Error: -4°F high, 14°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

11 / 28 mph

Actual

6 / 23 mph

Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson

Temperature

Forecast

70° / 46°

Actual

75° / 31°

Error: -5°F high, 15°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

9 / 18 mph

Actual

4 / 23 mph

Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan

Temperature

Forecast

71° / 51°

Actual

77° / 32°

Error: -6°F high, 19°F low

Precipitation

Forecast

Actual

✓ Within forecast range

Wind Speed

Forecast

8 / 18 mph

Actual

3 / 20 mph

Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Spring-Like Warmth Before Late Western Showers

Monday will feature unseasonably warm temperatures across the Commonwealth, with highs reaching the upper 60s and low 70s. While most of the state will remain dry and sunny, a weakening system will bring light rain showers to western Kentucky during the evening hours.

Why is this happening?

Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup

Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists for the temperature magnitude due to tight model agreement on the 850mb thermal ridge. Confidence is lower regarding the exact eastward extent of measurable light rain in the evening.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield

Sunny Morning, Evening Showers

Rain

70°/ 45°

A beautiful and warm start to the day will give way to increasing clouds. Light rain showers will move in during the evening hours, though amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch.

Precipitation80%

Wind14 mph / 32 mph

Wind Chill41°

Accumulation

Rain

0.05"

The "Why"

Saturation occurs after 18z as isentropic lift increases. QPF is capped at 0.05in due to fast progression.

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield

Breezy and Very Warm

Sunny

71°/ 44°

Enjoy a taste of spring with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the low 70s. A few clouds will arrive late, but most of the area will stay dry.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind14 mph / 31 mph

Wind Chill39°

The "Why"

The region remains largely in the dry slot between the western moisture plume and the eastern high.

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton

Warm with Late Evening Rain

Rain

71°/ 46°

Expect a mostly sunny and pleasant afternoon with highs near 71. Light rain showers are possible late tonight, mainly after 8 PM.

Precipitation60%

Wind15 mph / 28 mph

Wind Chill41°

Accumulation

Rain

0.02"

The "Why"

Moisture arrival is delayed by the dry boundary layer, but 850mb saturation is reached by 00z.

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin

Sunny and Exceptionally Mild

Sunny

73°/ 45°

Sunshine will dominate throughout the day, pushing temperatures into the low 70s. It will be a perfect day for outdoor activities with only a light breeze.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind12 mph / 29 mph

Wind Chill42°

The "Why"

Deep mixing and clear skies will allow surface temps to overachieve the standard GFS/NAM mean.

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville

Bright and Pleasant City Day

Sunny

71°/ 44°

The Louisville area will see clear skies and unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be in the low 70s with some increasing clouds very late tonight.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind12 mph / 30 mph

Wind Chill39°

The "Why"

Urban heat island effects and dry southwesterly flow will maintain a rain-free forecast.

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield

Warm Breezes and Sunshine

Sunny

70°/ 43°

A warm and breezy day is in store with temperatures reaching 70 degrees. Dry conditions will persist despite clouds moving in from the west late in the day.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind14 mph / 30 mph

Wind Chill38°

The "Why"

Strong subsidence inversion holds firm, preventing any precipitation from reaching the surface.

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello

Ideal Spring Weather

Sunny

71°/ 49°

Sunny skies and highs in the 70s will make for a beautiful day across the lake. Winds will be light to moderate.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind10 mph / 24 mph

Wind Chill48°

The "Why"

Building ridge to the east ensures deep-layer dry air remains in place through the period.

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence

Sunny and Mild

Sunny

68°/ 41°

After a cool start, temperatures will rebound nicely into the upper 60s under sunny skies. It will be a dry and pleasant day.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind12 mph / 32 mph

Wind Chill36°

The "Why"

High pressure centered over the Northeast US provides enough influence to keep moisture well to the south.

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester

Sunny Skies and Mild Temps

Sunny

69°/ 44°

Lexington will enjoy a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures nearing 70 degrees. A light breeze will pick up in the afternoon.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind12 mph / 31 mph

Wind Chill40°

The "Why"

The dry column and lack of forcing will prevent the ECMWF light rain signal from verifying here.

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea

A Warm and Dry Monday

Sunny

70°/ 46°

The foothills will remain dry and sunny today with highs around 70. Any early morning sprinkles will be isolated and move out quickly.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind11 mph / 28 mph

Wind Chill44°

The "Why"

Discounted the NAM's morning precipitation plume as it lacks support from other global and mesoscale models.

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson

Quiet and Pleasant

Sunny

70°/ 46°

Sunshine and light winds will make for a very pleasant day in the Ashland area. Highs will be well above average in the 70s.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind9 mph / 18 mph

Wind Chill43°

The "Why"

Surface high pressure and zonal flow aloft maintain a capped and very dry atmosphere.

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan

Warmest Mountain Sunshine

Sunny

71°/ 51°

The mountains will reach the low 70s today with blue skies and light winds. A beautiful day for any outdoor activities.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind8 mph / 18 mph

Wind Chill51°

The "Why"

Compression heating and strong ridging will keep skies clear despite moisture increases to the west.

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the GEM model's aggressive mixing verifies, temperatures could push into the mid-to-upper 70s in the Barren River and Pennyrile regions, with any morning cloud cover clearing earlier than expected.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The primary 'bust' would be a failure of the moisture to overcome the surface dry air, resulting in virga (rain evaporating before hitting the ground) even in western Kentucky, leaving the entire state dry.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Virga vs. Vapor War

The ECMWF suggests widespread light rain (80% PoP) extending into central Kentucky, while the GFS and NAM maintain a much drier surface layer that would likely evaporate most falling precipitation.

ECMWF

GFS

NAM

Why GFS Wins

GFS and NAM soundings show substantial dewpoint depressions below 850mb through the event duration, which favors a drier solution at the surface compared to the over-moistened ECMWF bias.

Affected Regions

LOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORELINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical profile indicates a well-mixed boundary layer with 850mb temperatures between +10C and +12C, supporting surface temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.

Thermal Boundary

The effective freezing line remains well north of the Great Lakes, leaving Kentucky entirely within the warm sector.

Diurnal Trend

A standard diurnal heating curve is expected, with rapid morning temperature rises under clear skies and a slower cooling rate in the west due to late-day clouds.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak pre-frontal trough enters western Kentucky after 21z, characterized by a subtle wind shift and increased cloud cover, but the main cold front remains west of the state.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky sits in the right entrance region of a 110kt jet streak, which provides synoptic-scale lift but is fighting against lower-level dry air.

Energy Status

A shearing shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, losing amplitude as it moves into the building ridge to the east.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is undersaturated below 700mb across central and eastern KY, presenting a high risk of virga; western KY will see saturation only after 00z.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be predominantly light stratiform drizzle or sprinkles with no convective elements.

Flooding Context

No hydrologic concerns exist as soils are unsaturated and total rainfall will be under 0.10 inches.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

67% Illumination

Moonrise

1:33 AM

Moonset

11:12 AM

Purchase Area

Sunrise

8:15 AM

Sunset

7:57 PM

Civil Dawn

7:49 AM

Civil Dusk

8:22 PM

Northwest Pennyrile

Sunrise

8:10 AM

Sunset

7:50 PM

Civil Dawn

7:43 AM

Civil Dusk

8:16 PM

Southwest Pennyrile

Sunrise

8:11 AM

Sunset

7:52 PM

Civil Dawn

7:45 AM

Civil Dusk

8:18 PM

Barren River

Sunrise

8:07 AM

Sunset

7:48 PM

Civil Dawn

7:41 AM

Civil Dusk

8:14 PM

Louisville Metro

Sunrise

8:04 AM

Sunset

7:45 PM

Civil Dawn

7:38 AM

Civil Dusk

8:11 PM

Lincoln Trail

Sunrise

8:05 AM

Sunset

7:45 PM

Civil Dawn

7:38 AM

Civil Dusk

8:11 PM

Lake Cumberland

Sunrise

7:59 AM

Sunset

7:41 PM

Civil Dawn

7:33 AM

Civil Dusk

8:06 PM

Northern Kentucky

Sunrise

8:00 AM

Sunset

7:39 PM

Civil Dawn

7:33 AM

Civil Dusk

8:06 PM

Inner Bluegrass

Sunrise

7:59 AM

Sunset

7:40 PM

Civil Dawn

7:33 AM

Civil Dusk

8:06 PM

Bluegrass Foothills

Sunrise

7:58 AM

Sunset

7:39 PM

Civil Dawn

7:32 AM

Civil Dusk

8:05 PM

Northeast Kentucky

Sunrise

7:52 AM

Sunset

7:32 PM

Civil Dawn

7:26 AM

Civil Dusk

7:59 PM

Southeast Kentucky

Sunrise

7:54 AM

Sunset

7:35 PM

Civil Dawn

7:28 AM

Civil Dusk

8:01 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.

View NAM Analysis View GFS Analysis View ECMWF Analysis View GEM Analysis