Sunday, March 8
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 10:47AM CST until March 14 at 6:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam and at Shawneetown. .Recent and expected heavy rain will raise the Ohio River into flood soon at Newburgh Dam and Shawneetown. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN From Sunday afternoon to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 34.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 40.6 feet early Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 10:47AM CST until March 15 at 4:25PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam and at Shawneetown. .Recent and expected heavy rain will raise the Ohio River into flood soon at Newburgh Dam and Shawneetown. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From Sunday evening to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CST Saturday the stage was 29.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow evening to a crest of 36.5 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 11:01AM CST until March 15 at 1:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam and Mount Vernon. .Recent and expected heavy rains are projected to raise water levels above flood stage by early Monday morning on the Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam and at Mount Vernon. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood later in the week. For the Ohio River...including Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN From late Sunday night to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 31.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Monday morning to a crest of 39.5 feet early Thursday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 11:01AM CST until March 14 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam and Mount Vernon. .Recent and expected heavy rains are projected to raise water levels above flood stage by early Monday morning on the Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam and at Mount Vernon. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood later in the week. For the Ohio River...including Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN From late Sunday night to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 29.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Monday morning to a crest of 36.8 feet early Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 14 at 1:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Mount Vernon .Recent heavy rain will raise the Ohio River into minor flood Sunday or Monday, with a crest expected Wednesday and Thursday. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN From Sunday morning to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 36.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late tomorrow morning to a crest of 41.8 feet early Wednesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 15 at 11:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Mount Vernon .Recent heavy rain will raise the Ohio River into minor flood Sunday or Monday, with a crest expected Wednesday and Thursday. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From Sunday afternoon to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:30 PM CST Saturday the stage was 31.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 37.3 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 15 at 11:17AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Mount Vernon .Recent heavy rain will raise the Ohio River into minor flood Sunday or Monday, with a crest expected Wednesday and Thursday. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN From late Sunday night to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 7:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 32.8 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Monday morning to a crest of 40.4 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 7 at 9:27PM CST until March 14 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam Ohio River at Shawneetown Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam Ohio River at Mount Vernon .Recent heavy rain will raise the Ohio River into minor flood Sunday or Monday, with a crest expected Wednesday and Thursday. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN From late Sunday night to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 29.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Monday morning to a crest of 37.2 feet early Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 14 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, and J.T. Myers Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN From this morning to early Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 38.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 41.7 feet Tuesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday morning. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 15 at 11:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, and J.T. Myers Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From this afternoon to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 32.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this afternoon to a crest of 37.3 feet early Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 14 at 10:25AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, and J.T. Myers Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN From this evening to late Saturday morning.
IMPACTS At 40.0 feet, Farm land and some main roads are flooded in places southwest and west of Mt. Vernon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 33.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this evening to a crest of 38.3 feet Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 8 at 10:49AM CDT until March 15 at 10:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, and J.T. Myers Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN From Monday morning to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 34.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow morning to a crest of 40.1 feet early Thursday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, March 8, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Showers Fade to a Bright and Mild Afternoon
A weak, moisture-starved cold front will transit the Commonwealth Sunday morning, bringing scattered light rain showers. Conditions will improve rapidly from west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds in, leading to a pleasant and mild end to the day with temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the liquid-only nature of the event and the timing of the frontal passage. The only uncertainty remains the exact rainfall totals in the eastern half of the state.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Rain showers will wrap up before 8 AM, leading to a sunny and mild afternoon. Expect high temperatures to reach the low 60s with light westerly winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
Light rain will end early in the morning, giving way to a sunny afternoon. Temperatures will be very comfortable, peaking in the lower 60s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Morning rain showers will move out by midday, leaving a clear and mild afternoon. Highs will reach the low 60s.
Barren River
Light morning rain will clear out by early afternoon. A very mild afternoon is in store with temperatures in the 60s.
Louisville Metro
Only a few light morning sprinkles are expected, with sunshine returning by 1 PM. It will be a breezy but mild afternoon with temperatures near 60.
Lincoln Trail
Expect light morning showers followed by a bright and mild afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be most consistent during the morning and early afternoon. Expect a damp day with total rainfall around a tenth of an inch.
Northern Kentucky
A few morning showers will clear out quickly, leading to a sunny and breezy afternoon. Temperatures will reach the upper 50s.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect breezy conditions and light rain through midday. Skies will clear by late afternoon with highs near 60.
Bluegrass Foothills
Light rain showers will persist through the morning hours. Expect a gradual clearing trend in the afternoon with mild temperatures.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will arrive mid-morning and linger through the early afternoon. Skies will begin to clear by sunset with highs in the upper 50s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect off-and-on rain showers through most of the afternoon. It will remain quite mild with temperatures reaching the lower 60s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The GEM model verifies, bringing a more robust moisture plume into Southern and Eastern Kentucky, resulting in rainfall totals closer to 0.50 inches rather than light sprinkles.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A faster frontal passage and more aggressive dry air entrainment result in almost no measurable rainfall for the I-65 corridor, with only a brief period of overcast skies.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Magnitude Conflict
The GEM is an aggressive outlier, predicting significantly higher rainfall totals (up to 0.75 inches) compared to the GFS, NAM, and Euro (all under 0.10 inches).
Why BLEND Wins
While the GEM is likely over-forecasting totals due to excessive moisture transport, the other models may be too dry in the upslope regions of the southeast. A blend favoring the drier solutions is used, but with slight increases in the Cumberland region.
The Afternoon Warmth Battle
GFS and GEM are notably warmer with afternoon highs, suggesting widespread low 60s, while the NAM and Euro hold temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Why GFS Wins
Post-frontal cold air advection is weak with this system, and rapid afternoon clearing should allow for efficient solar heating, favoring the warmer GFS/GEM solution.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.