Tuesday, March 10
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 8 at 8:21PM CDT until March 15 at 11:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Union, Gallatin, Crittenden and Hardin Counties. .Minor flooding is occurring on the Ohio River due to recent heavy rainfall across the region. At Shawneetown, the river is forecast to remain above flood stage until March 15th. For the Ohio River...including Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 7:30 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 33.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 37.3 feet early Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, and Newburgh Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN Until early Saturday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 35.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 37.4 feet early Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Friday evening. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 14 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, and Newburgh Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN Until late Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 36.5 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this evening to a crest of 38.5 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 13 at 9:24PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, and Newburgh Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN Until late Friday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 39.7 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise to a crest of 41.0 feet early Tuesday afternoon. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 9 at 11:04AM CDT until March 16 at 10:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, and Newburgh Dam. ...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Monday, March 16. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Monday the stage was 34.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.7 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Monday, March 16. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 10 at 11:05AM CDT until March 13 at 8:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Newburgh Dam, and Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN Until Friday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CDT Monday, March 09 the stage was 35.5 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise to a crest of 36.8 feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Friday morning. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 10 at 11:05AM CDT until March 14 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Newburgh Dam, and Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN Until Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 9:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 37.6 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise to 38.3 feet Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Saturday morning. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 10 at 11:05AM CDT until March 12 at 8:12PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Newburgh Dam, and Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN Until Thursday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 40.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 40.2 feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday afternoon. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 40.2 feet on 04/22/2019. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 10 at 11:05AM CDT until March 16 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kentucky...Indiana...Illinois... Ohio River at Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Newburgh Dam, and Shawneetown. .Recent heavy rain will cause minor flooding along portions of the Ohio River. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN Until Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CDT Tuesday the stage was 35.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 36.6 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Monday morning. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, March 10, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Spring Warmth with Gusty Winds and Scattered Showers
A surge of unseasonably warm air will bring spring-like conditions to Kentucky, with temperatures climbing into the 70s. Scattered rain showers are expected, primarily during the morning and afternoon, accompanied by gusty southwesterly winds reaching 30-40 mph at times.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and precipitation type (rain) due to 100% model agreement on thermal profiles. Lower confidence in localized rainfall totals due to NAM/GFS QPF spread.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a very warm day with temperatures reaching 76 degrees. Rain showers will be most likely during the morning hours, tapering off to a breezy and mostly cloudy afternoon. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph at times. Accumulations of rain will be around 0.12 inches.
Northwest Pennyrile
A soggy start to the day with light rain showers likely before noon. Temperatures will soar to a high of 76 degrees, accompanied by wind gusts up to 35 mph. Rain totals will be around 0.15 inches.
Southwest Pennyrile
Light rain showers will clear out by the early afternoon. Highs will be around 75 degrees with breezy conditions and gusts near 35 mph. Rainfall totals will be near 0.20 inches.
Barren River
Expect a warm and rainy morning with temperatures reaching 75 degrees. The rain will be steadiest during the early hours, with clearing expected by evening. Rain accumulations will be around 0.30 inches.
Louisville Metro
Rain will move through during the morning commute, followed by a warm and breezy afternoon. Highs will reach 74 degrees with gusts near 32 mph. Expect around 0.12 inches of rain.
Lincoln Trail
A very mild day with scattered rain showers and windy conditions. Highs will reach 73 degrees with gusts up to 35 mph. Rainfall totals will be near 0.25 inches.
Lake Cumberland
A relatively dry morning will give way to scattered light rain showers in the afternoon. Highs will stay mild around 73 degrees. Rainfall will be light, around 0.15 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a warm but cloudy day with light rain showers likely during the afternoon hours. Highs will reach 72 degrees. Rainfall will be minimal, around 0.05 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Highs will reach 72 degrees in Lexington. Expect a breezy day with scattered light showers, mostly during the midday hours. Rainfall totals around 0.10 inches are expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
A few light rain showers are possible in the morning, followed by a warm and cloudy afternoon. Highs will be around 72 degrees. Rainfall will be light, totaling 0.05 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Northeast Kentucky will stay warm with highs reaching 74 degrees. While it will be cloudy, rain chances remain low with only a few sprinkles possible. Rainfall is not expected to exceed 0.01 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
A pleasant and warm day with highs in the mid-70s. Clouds will increase, but the area is expected to remain mostly dry. No significant rainfall is expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The moisture transport maximizes with the NAM's more aggressive rainfall totals, leading to widespread 0.50-1.00 inch rainfall amounts and wind gusts exceeding 45 mph during peak momentum transfer.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The GFS dry-air bias verifies, resulting in significant evaporation (virga) and only trace amounts of rain reaching the surface, while cloud cover breaks early leading to record-breaking afternoon highs.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
LLJ Momentum Transfer
Models disagree on the magnitude of surface wind gusts, with the NAM suggesting 40mph+ while the Euro remains much calmer at 20mph.
Why NAM Wins
NAM typically handles the resolution of the Low-Level Jet and boundary layer mixing better than global models in high-gradient scenarios. Higher gusts are justified by the expected 850mb wind speeds.
The QPF Magnitude Conflict
The NAM is producing a localized heavy rainfall bullseye of nearly 1 inch in Central Kentucky, while the GFS shows less than 0.10 inches. The Euro and GEM provide a middle-ground solution.
Why EURO Wins
The NAM total appears to be an outlier due to convective over-production in a low-CAPE environment, while the GFS is likely under-forecasting due to its known dry-slot bias in warm sectors. The Euro offers the most consistent moisture profile.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.