kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Mar 6
Sun, Mar 8
Forecast For

Saturday, March 7

Updated Mar 7, 6:01 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Warning

Mar 6, 12:35 PM -> Mar 7, 2:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:35AM CST until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Mar 6, 12:35 PM -> Mar 7, 2:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:35AM CST until March 15 at 3:25AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Mar 6, 12:47 PM -> Mar 7, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:47AM CST until March 14 at 5:48AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Mar 6, 12:47 PM -> Mar 7, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:47AM CST until March 15 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Mar 7, 10:59 AM -> Mar 7, 1:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued March 7 at 9:59AM CST until March 7 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Tornado Warning

Mar 7, 11:17 AM -> Mar 7, 11:45 AM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued March 7 at 10:17AM CST until March 7 at 10:45AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 11:22 AM -> Mar 7, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 10:22AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Mar 7, 11:27 AM -> Mar 7, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 7 at 10:27AM CST until March 7 at 5:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Mar 7, 11:32 AM -> Mar 7, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 7 at 11:32AM EST until March 7 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mar 7, 11:38 AM -> Mar 7, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 7 at 10:38AM CST until March 7 at 11:15AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Mar 7, 11:45 AM -> Mar 7, 2:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued March 7 at 10:45AM CST until March 7 at 1:45PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 11:47 AM -> Mar 8, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 10:47AM CST until March 15 at 4:25PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 11:47 AM -> Mar 8, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 10:47AM CST until March 14 at 6:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 11:56 AM -> Mar 7, 12:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 10:56AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 12:01 PM -> Mar 8, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 11:01AM CST until March 14 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Warning

Mar 7, 12:01 PM -> Mar 8, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued March 7 at 11:01AM CST until March 15 at 1:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mar 7, 12:23 PM -> Mar 7, 12:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 7 at 11:23AM CST until March 7 at 11:45AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 12:36 PM -> Mar 7, 1:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 11:36AM CST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 12:40 PM -> Mar 7, 1:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 11:40AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mar 7, 12:45 PM -> Mar 7, 1:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 7 at 11:45AM CST until March 7 at 12:30PM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 12:57 PM -> Mar 7, 1:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 11:57AM CST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 1:00 PM -> Mar 7, 1:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 1:20 PM -> Mar 7, 1:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 1:20PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 1:23 PM -> Mar 7, 1:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 1:23PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Mar 7, 2:16 PM -> Mar 7, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 7 at 2:16PM EST until March 7 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 2:16 PM -> Mar 7, 2:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 2:16PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 2:17 PM -> Mar 7, 2:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 2:17PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 2:20 PM -> Mar 7, 2:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 2:20PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 2:37 PM -> Mar 7, 3:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 2:37PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 2:41 PM -> Mar 7, 3:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 2:41PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 2:45 PM -> Mar 7, 3:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 1:45PM CST by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Mar 7, 3:26 PM -> Mar 7, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued March 7 at 3:26PM EST until March 7 at 6:30PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Mar 7, 3:44 PM -> Mar 7, 5:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued March 7 at 3:44PM EST until March 7 at 5:30PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 4:10 PM -> Mar 7, 4:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 4:10PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 4:15 PM -> Mar 7, 4:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 4:15PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 4:55 PM -> Mar 7, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 4:55PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 4:59 PM -> Mar 7, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 4:59PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 5:06 PM -> Mar 7, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 5:06PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 7, 5:24 PM -> Mar 7, 6:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 7 at 5:24PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
85%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, March 7, 2026.

Temperature
±2.8°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±55.90"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±7.9mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
68° / 54°
Actual
72° / 59°
Error: -4°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.8"
Actual
78.09"
±77.29" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 38 mph
Actual
9 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
71° / 54°
Actual
74° / 59°
Error: -3°F high, -5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
165.96"
±165.36" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
20 / 45 mph
Actual
9 / 34 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
72° / 59°
Actual
77° / 58°
Error: -5°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.9"
Actual
91.7"
±90.8" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 42 mph
Actual
9 / 37 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
79° / 60°
Actual
78° / 59°
Error: 1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.4"
Actual
47.45"
±47.050000000000004" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 42 mph
Actual
9 / 38 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
75° / 61°
Actual
75° / 59°
Error: 0°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
15.27"
±14.67" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 41 mph
Actual
11 / 34 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
74° / 60°
Actual
75° / 59°
Error: -1°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.4"
Actual
80.7"
±80.3" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 43 mph
Actual
8 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
78° / 61°
Actual
79° / 55°
Error: -1°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.3"
Actual
58.64"
±58.34" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 38 mph
Actual
7 / 38 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
71° / 58°
Actual
75° / 59°
Error: -4°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.7"
Actual
26.96"
±26.26" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 40 mph
Actual
8 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
76° / 59°
Actual
78° / 58°
Error: -2°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.3"
Actual
16.88"
±16.58" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
22 / 48 mph
Actual
11 / 37 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
77° / 60°
Actual
81° / 57°
Error: -4°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
16.12"
±15.920000000000002" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
19 / 43 mph
Actual
9 / 33 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
80° / 63°
Actual
83° / 49°
Error: -3°F high, 14°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.15"
Actual
25.64"
±25.490000000000002" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 35 mph
Actual
6 / 39 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
78° / 62°
Actual
84° / 49°
Error: -6°F high, 13°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
52.91"
±52.709999999999994" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 34 mph
Actual
6 / 45 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Windy and Unseasonably Warm Saturday with Widespread Rain

A potent spring-like storm system will traverse Kentucky on Saturday, bringing unseasonably warm temperatures in the 70s and low 80s alongside widespread rain and impactful wind gusts. While no wintry weather is expected, a strong cold front will sweep from west to east during the afternoon and evening, triggering a sharp temperature drop and gusty conditions across the Commonwealth.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High agreement exists across all model suites regarding the precipitation type (all rain) and the unseasonably warm thermal profile. Uncertainty is primarily limited to localized rainfall amounts and the peak magnitude of wind gusts.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Soaking with Falling Afternoon Temps
Rain
68°/ 54°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Windy with Midday Heavy Rain
Rain
71°/ 54°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Soaking Rain and Warm Conditions
Heavy_Rain
72°/ 59°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Near-Record Warmth Followed by Rain
Rain
79°/ 60°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Soggy Afternoon with High Wind Gusts
Rain
75°/ 61°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Windy with Passing Rain Showers
Rain
74°/ 60°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Warm and Blustery Evening Rain
Rain
78°/ 61°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Soaking Rain and Breezy Conditions
Rain
71°/ 58°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
High Wind Alert; Light Rain
Rain
76°/ 59°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Very Windy with Late Showers
Rain
77°/ 60°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Exceptionally Warm with Nighttime Rain
Rain
80°/ 63°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Breezy and Very Warm; Late Rain
Rain
78°/ 62°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the cold front slows and convective elements train over the same areas, localized rainfall totals could exceed 1.5 inches in the West and North, potentially leading to minor nuisance flooding in urban areas.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry slot in the mid-levels is more pronounced, precipitation may be more scattered and lighter, particularly in the Bluegrass and Eastern Kentucky, resulting in totals staying below 0.25 inches.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Northern Bullseye Conflict

The NAM suggests a heavy precipitation bullseye of over 1.3 inches in Northern Kentucky, while the GFS, Euro, and GEM focus the highest totals (0.8-1.0 inches) in the Purchase and Southwest Pennyrile regions.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The NAM often exhibits convective feedback loops that over-amplify localized QPF. The global models (Euro/GFS/GEM) show better synoptic consistency regarding the moisture plume orientation and isentropic lift axis.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYPURCHASESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

The Momentum Transfer War

The GEM and NAM are much more aggressive with surface wind gusts, predicting 45-50 mph, whereas the GFS and Euro are more conservative, topping out at 35-40 mph.

NAM
VS
GEM
VS
GFS
Why GEM Wins

In high-WAA setups with a 50kt LLJ, global models often under-resolve boundary layer mixing. The GEM and NAM provide a more realistic depiction of momentum transfer ahead of a sharp cold front.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORENORTHWEST PENNYRILELINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A deep, warm-sector profile is in place with no low-level inversions. Surface temperatures in the 70s and 850mb temperatures of +10C to +14C ensure a completely liquid event.

Thermal Boundary

The primary cold front enters Western Kentucky around 18z (Saturday) and clears the Southeast Coalfields by 06z (Sunday).

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal trend will be observed in Western and Central Kentucky as temperatures fall sharply behind the afternoon frontal passage.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

The front is marked by a sudden wind shift from south-southwest to west-northwest and a temperature drop of 10-15 degrees within three hours of passage.

Jet Stream Support

Excellent synoptic support from the left-exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet streak, providing deep-layer divergence and mechanical lift.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with a vorticity maximum of 0.0007 is progged to move through the Louisville/Northern KY corridor.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is fully saturated below 500mb in the west, with a brief period of virga possible in the east during the morning hours due to low-level dry air.

Precipitation Character

Primarily stratiform rain with embedded convective bands along the cold front; no lightning is expected due to negligible CAPE.

Flooding Context

The ground is currently dry enough to absorb forecast totals of 0.5-1.0 inch; hydrologic concerns are minimal.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

83% Illumination
Moonrise
10:31 PM
Moonset
9:10 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:18 AM
Sunset
6:55 PM
Civil Dawn
6:52 AM
Civil Dusk
7:21 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:12 AM
Sunset
6:48 PM
Civil Dawn
6:46 AM
Civil Dusk
7:15 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:14 AM
Sunset
6:50 PM
Civil Dawn
6:48 AM
Civil Dusk
7:16 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:10 AM
Sunset
6:46 PM
Civil Dawn
6:44 AM
Civil Dusk
7:12 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
6:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:41 AM
Civil Dusk
7:09 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
6:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:41 AM
Civil Dusk
7:10 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:02 AM
Sunset
6:39 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
7:05 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:03 AM
Sunset
6:37 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
7:04 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:02 AM
Sunset
6:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
7:04 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:01 AM
Sunset
6:37 PM
Civil Dawn
6:35 AM
Civil Dusk
7:03 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:55 AM
Sunset
6:30 PM
Civil Dawn
6:29 AM
Civil Dusk
6:57 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:57 AM
Sunset
6:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:31 AM
Civil Dusk
6:59 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.