Friday, March 6
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 5 at 11:16AM CST until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Gallatin, Union, Crittenden and Hardin Counties. .Minor flooding is expected on the ohio river due to heavy rainfall over the area. It will remain above flood stage until March 13th currently forecasted. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From Tuesday morning to Saturday, March 14.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CST Thursday the stage was 19.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday morning to a crest of 33.3 feet Thursday, March 12. It will then fall below flood stage Friday, March 13. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 5 at 11:18AM CST until March 12 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Indiana...Kentucky... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam affecting Henderson, Vanderburgh, Spencer, Daviess and Warrick Counties. .The ohio river at newburgh will rise above flood stage currently forecasted on March 8th and will remain in flood stage until march 12th. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN From late Saturday night to Thursday, March 12. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 23.0 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early Sunday morning to 38.4 feet Monday morning. It will then fall Tuesday evening. It will rise to 38.4 feet Thursday, March 12. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday, March 12. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 5 at 11:55PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
Patchy fog has developed with a few areas seeing locally dense fog at times. The dense fog will result in visibilities briefly dropping as low as one-quarter mile at times. If traveling early this morning, please remember to slow down, use your low-beam headlights and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:35AM CST until March 15 at 3:25AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following river in Indiana...Kentucky... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam and Mount Vernon. .Recent and expected heavy rains are projected to raise water levels into flood next week on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon and J.T. Myers Dam. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood later in the week. For the Ohio River...including Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam.
WHEN From Monday morning to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 27.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage Monday morning to a crest of 38.9 feet early Thursday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday, March 14. - Flood stage is 37.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:35AM CST until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following river in Indiana...Kentucky... Ohio River at J.T. Myers Dam and Mount Vernon. .Recent and expected heavy rains are projected to raise water levels into flood next week on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon and J.T. Myers Dam. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood later in the week. For the Ohio River...including Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Mount Vernon.
WHEN From Monday afternoon to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 6:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 27.2 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage Monday afternoon to a crest of 35.8 feet Wednesday evening. It will then fall below flood stage Friday, March 13. - Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:47AM CST until March 14 at 5:48AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in Indiana...Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam and Shawneetown. .Recent and expected heavy rains are projected to raise water levels into flood by next week on the Ohio River at Newburgh Dam and Shawneetown. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood later in the week. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN From Sunday morning to Saturday, March 14. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 29.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late Sunday morning to a crest of 39.9 feet early Wednesday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Friday, March 13. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 6 at 11:47AM CST until March 15 at 9:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in Indiana...Kentucky...Illinois... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam and Shawneetown. .Recent and expected heavy rains are projected to raise water levels into flood by next week on the Ohio River at Newburgh Dam and Shawneetown. Both locations are projected to crest in minor flood later in the week. For the Ohio River...including Newburgh Dam, Shawneetown...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From late Sunday night to Sunday, March 15. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 11:30 AM CST Friday the stage was 25.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early Monday morning to a crest of 35.2 feet Thursday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday, March 15. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Friday, March 6, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Record-Challenging Early March Warmth with Stray Showers
An unseasonably warm airmass will dominate Kentucky on Friday, with temperatures soaring into the 70s and low 80s, roughly 20 degrees above normal. While the day will be characterized by spring-like warmth and breezy conditions, a weak passing trough will trigger scattered light rain showers, primarily during the morning in the north and east, and again late evening in the west.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the record-challenging thermal profile and breezy conditions; only minor timing differences exist regarding the arrival and departure of light rain showers.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A warm and breezy day with highs reaching near 79 degrees. Clouds will increase during the afternoon, followed by a few light rain showers moving in after sunset.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect some early morning drizzle followed by a rapid clearing. Temperatures will climb to a very warm 80 degrees by mid-afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
It will feel like a late spring day with highs reaching 82 degrees. Scattered light rain showers are possible late in the evening as a cold front nears.
Barren River
Prepare for the warmest temperatures in the state, with highs hitting 83 degrees. Rain chances are slim until very late in the evening.
Louisville Metro
A few light rain showers are likely during the morning commute, but the afternoon will turn breezy and warm with highs near 78 degrees.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a warm day with highs around 80 degrees. While a stray sprinkle is possible early, most of the rain will evaporate before reaching the ground.
Lake Cumberland
A great day for the lake with highs near 80 degrees. Clouds will move through at times, but no significant rain is expected.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a gray start with morning showers, followed by partial clearing and a warm high of 75 degrees. Gusty winds will arrive by afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
Light rain is possible early in the day, but conditions will improve quickly. Expect a spring-like afternoon with highs near 78 degrees.
Bluegrass Foothills
A few sprinkles are possible early, but the day will be largely dry and very warm, with temperatures reaching 79 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
Off-and-on light rain will persist through the morning hours. Despite the damp start, it will turn surprisingly warm with highs near 78 degrees.
Southeast Kentucky
A pleasant and very warm day for the mountains with highs in the upper 70s. Only a few passing clouds and light winds are expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If morning cloud cover clears faster than anticipated, peak solar insolation acting on the +14C thermal ridge could push temperatures to 85°F in the southern river basins, potentially breaking daily records.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry air proves more resilient, the 'Rain' forecast will manifest primarily as virga or trace drizzle, with measurable totals failing to reach the ground in most locations.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The 80-Degree Barrier
The GEM and Euro models are aggressively pushing 80-84°F highs across the southern half of the state, while the GFS and NAM maintain a more conservative mid-70s solution due to higher forecasted cloud cover.
Why GEM Wins
GEM and Euro better resolve the 'bowl-effect' compression heating in Kentucky's river valleys during strong warm-air advection (WAA) regimes, which often overperform in early spring.
Moisture Depth Disagreement
GFS forecasts widespread light rain coverage (the 'Smear' effect), whereas NAM and GEM suggest a much drier column with precipitation limited to two distinct, narrow windows of low-level saturation.
Why NAM Wins
NAM's superior resolution of the 850-700mb dry layer is more physically consistent with the lack of deep-column forcing observed in current satellite trends.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.