Thursday, March 5
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 4 at 1:48PM CST until March 5 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portion of southern Illinois near and north of Highway 13, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky.
WHEN Through Thursday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Training showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon through tonight. An addition 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible on top of the 1 to 2 inches of rain which fell Wednesday morning. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and nuisance flooding developing.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 4 at 2:53PM EST until March 5 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Hancock and Trimble.
WHEN Through Thursday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and into tomorrow morning, which will be capable of producing heavy rainfall on already saturated grounds. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 4 at 2:32PM CST until March 4 at 9:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /10 PM EST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EDWARDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA POSEY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA GIBSON PIKE SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN DAVIESS FULTON HENDERSON HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN UNION WEBSTER IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBION, BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, BOONVILLE, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CARMI, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DIXON, DONIPHAN, ELIZABETHTOWN, EVANSVILLE, FAIRFIELD, FORT BRANCH, GOLCONDA, GRAYVILLE, HARRISBURG, HENDERSON, HERRIN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MARION, MCLEANSBORO, METROPOLIS, MORGANFIELD, MOUND CITY, MOUNT CARMEL, MOUNT VERNON, MURPHYSBORO, NEW MADRID, OWENSBORO, PADUCAH, PERRYVILLE, PETERSBURG, PIEDMONT, PINCKNEYVILLE, POPLAR BLUFF, POSEYVILLE, ROCKPORT, SHAWNEETOWN, SIKESTON, SMITHLAND, VAN BUREN, VIENNA, WEST FRANKFORT, WEST SALEM, AND WICKLIFFE.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 4 at 7:11PM EST until March 5 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne, the following counties, in northern Kentucky, Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin and Kenton, and the following counties, in Ohio, Brown, Butler, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross and Warren.
WHEN Through Thursday afternoon.
IMPACTS Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and some thunderstorms will move across the region through Thursday morning. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, with local amounts up to 3 inches possible.
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. People living in areas that are prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 5 at 3:27AM EST until March 5 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Hancock and Trimble.
WHEN Until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A large area of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will continue this morning. Areas that see more rounds of heavier rainfall could see flooding this morning. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 5 at 4:52AM EST until March 5 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne, the following counties, in northern Kentucky, Boone, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin and Kenton, and the following counties, in Ohio, Brown, Butler, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross and Warren.
WHEN Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
IMPACTS Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Showers and some thunderstorms will move across the region today. Rainfall upwards of 1 to 2 inches is expected today.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 5 at 5:31AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Patchy dense fog will be present this morning. Use caution and remain alert for rapid changes in visibility if driving this morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 5 at 6:03AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Areas of fog have formed across portions of the area after recent rainfall and some clearing of skies, with dense fog possible in some locations. Fog is expected to gradually dissipate later this morning across the area. Visibility will be restricted in any areas of fog and could be as low as a half mile or less in spots. Exercise caution traveling this morning. Please slow down and leave extra room between other vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued March 5 at 5:23AM CST until March 5 at 8:30AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following counties, Hardin, Massac, Pope and Pulaski and western Kentucky, including the following counties, Ballard, Crittenden, Livingston and McCracken.
WHEN Until 830 AM CST.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 523 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Paducah, Metropolis, La Center, Rosiclare, Brookport, Golconda, Mound City, Burna, Joy, Kevil, Joppa, Olmsted, Cave-in-Rock, Smithland, Elizabethtown, Pulaski, Carrsville and Hamletsburg. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 5 at 7:03AM CST until March 5 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry IL, Saline, Wabash, Wayne IL, White and Williamson, southwest Indiana, including the following areas, Gibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick, and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Daviess, Henderson and Union KY.
WHEN Until noon CST /1 PM EST/ today.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued March 5 at 7:23AM CST until March 5 at 10:30AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following counties, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick and western Kentucky, including the following counties, Daviess, Henderson and Union.
WHEN Until 1030 AM CST.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 723 AM CST, trained weather spotters reported heavy rain in the advisory area due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is already occurring. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, Boonville, Newburgh, Morganfield, Chandler, Rockport, Melody Hill, Breckinridge Center, Dale, Darmstadt, Uniontown, Lynnville, Grandview, Corydon, Robards, Kasson, Stanley and Eureka.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 5 at 7:51AM CST until March 5 at 11:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following counties, Alexander, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski and Union and western Kentucky, including the following counties, Crittenden and Livingston.
WHEN Until 1100 AM CST.
IMPACTS Streams continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. It will take several hours for all the water from these storms to work through local drainage systems in urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 750 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is already occurring in the warned area. Between 2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Metropolis, Anna, Marion, Sturgis, Jonesboro, Vienna, Rosiclare, Goreville, Salem, Dongola, Golconda, Tamms, Karnak, Dixon Springs, New Columbia, Joy, Lake Of Egypt Area, Burna, Olive Branch and Ware.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route. Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 5 at 9:59AM CST until March 5 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following counties, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh and Warrick and western Kentucky, including the following counties, Daviess, Henderson and Union.
WHEN Until noon CST.
IMPACTS Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 957 AM CST, local officials and trained spotters reported high water and street flood occurring in Evansville and in Henderson County. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, Boonville, Newburgh, Morganfield, Chandler, Rockport, Melody Hill, Breckinridge Center, Dale, Darmstadt, Uniontown, Lynnville, Grandview, Corydon, Robards, Kasson, Stanley and Eureka.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 5 at 10:52AM CST until March 5 at 11:00AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
The Flood Warning will expire at 11 AM CST this morning for portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Alexander, Hardin, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski and Union and western Kentucky, including the following areas, Crittenden and Livingston. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 5 at 11:16AM CST until March 14 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Illinois...Kentucky... Ohio River at Shawneetown affecting Gallatin, Union, Crittenden and Hardin Counties. .Minor flooding is expected on the ohio river due to heavy rainfall over the area. It will remain above flood stage until March 13th currently forecasted. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Shawneetown.
WHEN From Tuesday morning to Saturday, March 14.
IMPACTS At 33.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs affecting mainly bottomland and surrounding low lying areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:30 AM CST Thursday the stage was 19.9 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage Tuesday morning to a crest of 33.3 feet Thursday, March 12. It will then fall below flood stage Friday, March 13. - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
Flood Warning
Flood Warning issued March 5 at 11:18AM CST until March 12 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
...The National Weather Service in Paducah KY has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Indiana...Kentucky... Ohio River at Newburgh Dam affecting Henderson, Vanderburgh, Spencer, Daviess and Warrick Counties. .The ohio river at newburgh will rise above flood stage currently forecasted on March 8th and will remain in flood stage until march 12th. For the Ohio River...including Owensboro, Newburgh Dam, Evansville, Henderson, Mount Vernon, J.T. Myers Dam, Shawneetown, Golconda, Smithland Dam, Paducah, Olmsted Lock and Dam, Cairo...Minor flooding is forecast.
WHAT Minor flooding is forecast.
WHERE Ohio River at Newburgh Dam.
WHEN From late Saturday night to Thursday, March 12. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 10:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 23.0 feet. - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early Sunday morning to 38.4 feet Monday morning. It will then fall Tuesday evening. It will rise to 38.4 feet Thursday, March 12. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday, March 12. - Flood stage is 38.0 feet.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 5 at 12:58PM EST until March 5 at 4:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Hancock and Trimble.
WHEN Until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A large area of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will continue for a few more hours. Areas that see more rounds of heavier rainfall could see flooding this morning. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, March 5, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Soggy Thursday: Heavy Rain West, Unseasonably Warm East
A potent moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico will surge into Kentucky today, bringing widespread rainfall to the western and central corridors while the eastern mountains stay unseasonably warm and largely dry. Heavy rainfall is likely along the Ohio River, with localized totals near two inches in the Northwest Pennyrile.
Confidence Assessment
Model agreement is excellent regarding the unseasonably warm temperatures and the overall spatial distribution of moisture. The only minor uncertainty lies in the exact rainfall totals where training occurs.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect persistent rain through the morning and afternoon hours. Total rainfall will likely reach around 0.7 inches. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm, reaching the upper 60s with breezy southwesterly winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
This region is at the center of the heavy rain axis today. Nearly 1.5 inches of rain is expected, which may lead to ponding on roads. Rain will be steadiest during the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 60s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Occasional rain showers will move through, but you'll see some dry time compared to your neighbors to the north. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Temperatures will be very mild, reaching the low 70s.
Barren River
Expect a very warm day with highs near 73. Winds will be gusty, reaching up to 40 mph at times. Rain will be light and scattered, with most of it holding off until later in the day.
Louisville Metro
Over an inch of rain is expected in Louisville today. Steady rain will make for a damp commute throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will stay mild in the mid-60s with breezy conditions.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will be frequent today, with amounts around 0.6 inches expected. Winds will gust over 35 mph. It will remain warm with highs reaching the upper 60s.
Lake Cumberland
Highs will reach 73 today. While clouds will be plentiful, any rain that falls will be very light and brief. It will be a breezy day with wind gusts reaching 30 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Rain will start early and continue off and on all day, with around 0.6 inches expected. Highs will be in the low 60s, making this one of the cooler spots in Kentucky today.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will be most persistent during the morning and midday hours. Expect about 0.4 inches total. Winds will be gusty, reaching 35 mph at times, with temperatures in the mid-60s.
Bluegrass Foothills
A dry start to the day with temperatures reaching near 70. Light rain will move in during the afternoon. Windy conditions will persist throughout the day with gusts over 30 mph.
Northeast Kentucky
It will be a pleasant day for early March with highs near 70. Most of the rain will wait until this evening. Expect a mix of clouds and sun early on with breezy conditions.
Southeast Kentucky
While other areas deal with rain, the mountains will be dry and very warm with highs reaching 73. Expect plenty of cloud cover, but no rain is expected to reach the ground today.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level jet stays anchored over the Northwest Pennyrile longer than expected, training rain bands could push localized totals over 2.5 inches, leading to flash flooding on saturated soils.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A faster-moving dry slot from the southeast could cut off moisture transport by mid-afternoon, limiting central Kentucky totals to under a half-inch and keeping heavy rain confined strictly to the river counties.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Boundary Layer Momentum Transfer
The NAM and GFS suggest significant wind gusts (40+ mph) due to momentum transfer from the 850mb jet, while the Euro remains much calmer with gusts barely reaching 20 mph.
Why BLEND Wins
Global models like the Euro often under-forecast wind gusts in warm-sector regimes; the NAM and GFS more accurately reflect the potential for low-level jet energy to reach the surface in showers.
The Pennyrile QPF Peak
The NAM and GEM are forecasting an intense axis of rain (1.5"-2.0") over the Northwest Pennyrile due to better resolution of moisture flux convergence, whereas the GFS and Euro are significantly more conservative (0.8"-1.0").
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the resolution of moisture transport and lift along stalling boundaries better within the 48-hour window, and its logic trace regarding 850mb moisture flux aligns with the high PWAT environment.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.