Wednesday, March 4
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 3 at 12:01PM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rainfall through Wednesday morning is expected to be between 2 and 3 inches, with higher amounts expected along a narrow west-east axis. Lower amounts are possible along the northern and southern periphery of this watch.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 3 at 6:36PM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 3 at 9:29PM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rainfall through Wednesday morning is expected to be between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 3 at 11:34PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Areas of patchy dense fog have formed across many of the river and mountain valleys after recent rainfall and cooling temperatures. Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rain will be moving in early Wednesday morning which will likely make conditions worse in between the heavier showers. Visibility will be restricted with any fog and could be as low as half a mile or less in spots. Exercise caution traveling tonight and Wednesday morning. Please slow down and leave extra room between other vehicles.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 4 at 2:26AM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 4 at 2:42AM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.
WHEN Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
IMPACTS Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches have already been observed in the watch area. Additional rainfall is expected this morning, particularly for the southern portion of the watch area.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 4 at 3:59AM EST by NWS Charleston WV
Areas of patchy dense fog have formed across many of the river and mountain valleys after recent rainfall and cooling temperatures. Additional rounds of moderate to heavy rain are moving across the area this morning. The dense fog will likely be worse in between the heavier showers. Visibility will be restricted in any areas of fog and could be as low as half a mile or less in spots. Exercise caution traveling this morning. Please slow down and leave extra room between other vehicles.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 4 at 1:48PM CST until March 5 at 12:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portion of southern Illinois near and north of Highway 13, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky.
WHEN Through Thursday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Training showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon through tonight. An addition 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible on top of the 1 to 2 inches of rain which fell Wednesday morning. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and nuisance flooding developing.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 4 at 2:53PM EST until March 5 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following areas, Clark IN, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison IN, Jefferson IN, Orange, Perry, Scott IN and Washington IN and Kentucky, including the following areas, Hancock and Trimble.
WHEN Through Thursday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and into tomorrow morning, which will be capable of producing heavy rainfall on already saturated grounds. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued March 4 at 2:32PM CST until March 4 at 9:00PM CST by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /10 PM EST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EDWARDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA POSEY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA GIBSON PIKE SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CARLISLE CRITTENDEN DAVIESS FULTON HENDERSON HICKMAN LIVINGSTON MCCRACKEN UNION WEBSTER IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBION, BARDWELL, BLOOMFIELD, BOONVILLE, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CARBONDALE, CARMI, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DIXON, DONIPHAN, ELIZABETHTOWN, EVANSVILLE, FAIRFIELD, FORT BRANCH, GOLCONDA, GRAYVILLE, HARRISBURG, HENDERSON, HERRIN, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MARION, MCLEANSBORO, METROPOLIS, MORGANFIELD, MOUND CITY, MOUNT CARMEL, MOUNT VERNON, MURPHYSBORO, NEW MADRID, OWENSBORO, PADUCAH, PERRYVILLE, PETERSBURG, PIEDMONT, PINCKNEYVILLE, POPLAR BLUFF, POSEYVILLE, ROCKPORT, SHAWNEETOWN, SIKESTON, SMITHLAND, VAN BUREN, VIENNA, WEST FRANKFORT, WEST SALEM, AND WICKLIFFE.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, March 4, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Unseasonably Warm Wednesday with Widespread Showers
A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will interact with deep Gulf moisture to produce widespread rain across the northern half of Kentucky, while the southern regions remain exceptionally warm and breezy with more intermittent showers.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the unseasonably warm temperatures and the presence of rain. The minor score reduction is due to model disagreements on the exact southern extent of the heaviest rainfall and the potential for dry-slotting in the southeast.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a spring-like day with temperatures reaching the low 70s under mostly cloudy skies. While most of the day will be dry, rain showers will arrive by the evening hours and persist into the night.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will be a frequent companion today, with the steadiest amounts falling during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain very comfortable for early March, reaching the upper 60s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm day is in store with highs in the mid-70s. While a few sprinkles are possible, measurable rain will be sparse. Breezy south winds will add to the spring-like feel.
Barren River
Expect a cloudy but very warm day with temperatures topping out near 72 degrees. A few light rain showers are possible, mainly in the afternoon, but significant rainfall is not expected.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see a soggy Wednesday with light rain likely for much of the day. Despite the dampness, it will be very mild with temperatures in the mid-60s.
Lincoln Trail
Periods of rain will move through the area today, though total amounts will be relatively light. Highs will reach the upper 60s, keeping things very mild.
Lake Cumberland
It will be a gray but pleasantly warm day for the lake area, with highs near 70 degrees. Rain chances are low, and most of the day should remain dry.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a very wet day across Northern Kentucky as heavy rain persists from morning through evening. Total rainfall could exceed three-quarters of an inch, leading to ponding on some roads.
Inner Bluegrass
It will be a damp and windy day in Lexington with rain showers becoming more frequent by the afternoon. Temperatures will be mild in the mid-60s with wind gusts over 30 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
Occasional rain showers will move through the foothills today, but totals will be light. Expect breezy conditions and temperatures reaching near 68 degrees.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be steady at times today, especially during the afternoon hours. It will be a damp day with highs in the mid-60s and very little wind.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a largely dry and very warm day for the mountains, with temperatures reaching the low 70s. Cloudy skies will prevail, but rain chances remain very low.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the frontal boundary stalls further south and moisture transport maximizes, Northern Kentucky could see rainfall totals exceeding 1.5 inches, while the southern tier hits record highs near 80F if dry slots persist.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the primary shortwave energy remains more progressive and the moisture axis shifts north into Indiana, Kentucky would see much lighter rainfall amounts (under 0.25 inches) and persistent cloud cover would keep temperatures 5-8 degrees cooler than forecast.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The QPF Disparity
A significant conflict exists between the NAM and the Global models (Euro/GFS/GEM) regarding precipitation intensity. The NAM suggests a much drier scenario with totals under 0.15 inches, while the global models indicate a much deeper moisture tap with totals over 1.0 inch in the north.
Why EURO Wins
Global models better resolve the deep-layer moisture transport and synoptic-scale forcing associated with the upper-level jet streak, whereas the NAM appears to be struggling with dry-air entrainment in the lower levels.
The Southern Heat Spike
The GEM model is an aggressive outlier for high temperatures in Southern Kentucky, forecasting near 80F, while the GFS and NAM are more conservative in the low 70s due to cloud cover.
Why BLEND Wins
While the air mass is capable of 80F, the high confidence in thick multi-layered cloud cover will likely limit solar insolation, making the middle-ground blend more probable.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.