Tuesday, March 3
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 3 at 10:39AM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Isolated flash flooding is also possible. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected in the watch area through Wednesday afternoon. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 3 at 12:01PM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE The following counties, in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne, the following counties, in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen, Pendleton and Robertson, and the following counties, in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Soils remain moist and excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rainfall through Wednesday morning is expected to be between 2 and 3 inches, with higher amounts expected along a narrow west-east axis. Lower amounts are possible along the northern and southern periphery of this watch.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued March 3 at 6:36PM EST until March 4 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt and Wood.
WHEN Through Wednesday afternoon.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, March 3, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Windy and Unseasonably Warm; Heavy Rain in the North
A sharp north-south weather divide will define the day for Kentucky. Northern and Northeastern regions will experience a damp, cool, and soggy day with steady rainfall. In contrast, Central and Southern Kentucky will surge into the 70s with spring-like warmth and sun, though all regions will contend with wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature surge and windy conditions. Moderate uncertainty remains regarding the exact southern extent of the rain shield near the I-64 corridor.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Enjoy a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will reach the mid-70s, making it feel more like April than March.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect some rain during the morning hours followed by a very warm and windy afternoon. Clouds will break for sunshine as temperatures climb into the 70s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A very warm day is in store with clouds giving way to some sun. Watch out for wind gusts up to 35 mph throughout the afternoon.
Barren River
It will be a very windy day with gusts over 40 mph at times. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm, reaching the upper 70s.
Louisville Metro
Expect light rain showers off and on throughout the day. It will remain quite warm despite the damp conditions, with highs in the mid-60s.
Lincoln Trail
A very windy day with a few morning sprinkles possible. Most of the day will be dry but cloudy and warm, with highs in the 70s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a dry and warm day with highs near 70 degrees. It will be breezy with gusty winds and mostly cloudy skies.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a rainy day for Northern Kentucky with significant rainfall possible. Steady rain will last for much of the day and evening, totaling around 0.7 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Steady rain is expected for much of the day in Lexington. It will be breezy with highs in the mid-60s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures are on tap today. Gusty winds will make it feel like spring, but most of the rain will stay north.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a very soggy day with over a third of an inch of rain possible. Rain will be fairly steady through the afternoon and evening.
Southeast Kentucky
A warm and breezy day for the mountains with most rain staying north. A brief afternoon shower is possible, but it will be largely dry.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the stalled boundary shifts 50 miles further south, the rain shield would encompass the Bluegrass and Western Kentucky Parkways, significantly cooling temperatures and bringing over 1 inch of rain to the I-64 corridor.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry slot proves more aggressive, the rain would be confined strictly to the immediate Ohio River counties, allowing 70-degree temperatures to reach as far north as Covington.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Northern QPF Magnitude
Disagreement exists regarding the total rainfall for the northern tier. NAM/GFS suggest light totals (under 0.40"), while Euro/GEM suggest a more significant soaking (0.70"+).
Why EURO Wins
The presence of frontogenetical forcing along a stalled boundary favored the more aggressive moisture profiles of the Euro and GEM.
The Southern Moisture Cutoff
The GFS and Euro attempt to smear light precipitation across the entire state, while the NAM and GEM show a distinct dry slot cutting off rain south of the Bluegrass Parkway.
Why GEM Wins
In high-amplitude warm-air advection regimes, global models like the GFS often over-forecast light precip coverage. The GEM and NAM better resolve the sharp moisture gradient associated with the mid-level dry slot.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.