kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sun, Mar 1
Tue, Mar 3
Forecast For

Monday, March 2

Updated Mar 2, 5:59 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 1, 12:33 PM -> Mar 1, 8:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 12:33PM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 1, 12:33 PM -> Mar 1, 8:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 12:33PM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 1, 1:46 PM -> Mar 1, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 1:46PM EST until March 2 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Mar 1, 1:49 PM -> Mar 2, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 1 at 1:49PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 1, 2:59 PM -> Mar 2, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 1 at 2:59PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 1, 4:29 PM -> Mar 2, 2:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 1 at 4:29PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 1, 8:18 PM -> Mar 2, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 8:18PM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 1, 8:29 PM -> Mar 2, 4:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 8:29PM EST until March 2 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 1, 9:44 PM -> Mar 2, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 9:44PM EST until March 2 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 12:49 AM -> Mar 2, 9:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 12:49AM EST until March 2 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 1:53 AM -> Mar 2, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 1:53AM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Mar 2, 1:59 AM -> Mar 2, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 2 at 1:59AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Mar 2, 2:25 AM -> Mar 2, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 2 at 2:25AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 2:40 AM -> Mar 2, 9:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 2:40AM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 5:37 AM -> Mar 2, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 5:37AM EST until March 2 at 10:00AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 2, 5:42 AM -> Mar 2, 10:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 2 at 5:42AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 7:20 AM -> Mar 2, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 7:20AM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 8:43 AM -> Mar 2, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 8:43AM EST until March 2 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 9:18 AM -> Mar 2, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 9:18AM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Mar 2, 9:26 AM -> Mar 2, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued March 2 at 9:26AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 10:48 AM -> Mar 2, 1:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 10:48AM EST until March 2 at 1:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Mar 2, 10:53 AM -> Mar 2, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued March 2 at 10:53AM EST until March 2 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
45%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, March 2, 2026.

Temperature
±3.0°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±17.21"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±3.2mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
45° / 40°
Actual
53° / 38°
Error: -8°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
20.9"
±20.4" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 30 mph
Actual
7 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
42° / 37°
Actual
48° / 36°
Error: -6°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.55"
Actual
42.94"
±42.39" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
8 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
51° / 41°
Actual
52° / 36°
Error: -1°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.3"
Actual
24.34"
±24.04" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 22 mph
Actual
8 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
53° / 40°
Actual
54° / 38°
Error: -1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.25"
Actual
17.39"
±17.14" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
6 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
39° / 34°
Actual
40° / 31°
Error: -1°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
5.99"
±5.49" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 22 mph
Actual
10 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
41° / 34°
Actual
46° / 33°
Error: -5°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.55"
Actual
43.46"
±42.910000000000004" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 24 mph
Actual
7 / 23 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
56° / 38°
Actual
55° / 35°
Error: 1°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.35"
Actual
11.48"
±11.13" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
9 / 25 mph
Actual
5 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
36° / 29°
Actual
37° / 29°
Error: -1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1.5"
Actual
9.82"
±8.32" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 20 mph
Actual
7 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
40° / 31°
Actual
41° / 32°
Error: -1°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
12.14"
±12.040000000000001" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 24 mph
Actual
9 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
45° / 33°
Actual
44° / 34°
Error: 1°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.4"
Actual
2.91"
±2.5100000000000002" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
8 / 20 mph
Actual
6 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
39° / 30°
Actual
45° / 31°
Error: -6°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.15"
Actual
8.01"
±7.859999999999999" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
7 / 18 mph
Actual
6 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
54° / 36°
Actual
58° / 34°
Error: -4°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.3"
Actual
12.57"
±12.27" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
6 / 20 mph
Actual
3 / 18 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Winter Mix North, Soaking Rain South on Monday

A messy winter system will impact the Commonwealth on Monday, bringing a combination of snow, freezing rain, and cold rain. While Southern and Central Kentucky stay liquid, Northern and Northeastern regions face icing and slushy snow accumulations.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

Confidence is high for a widespread precipitation event, but low regarding the precise rain/snow/ice line. Small 1-degree shifts in the surface or 850mb temperatures will drastically alter accumulation types for the I-64 corridor.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Breezy and Soaking Rain
Rain
45°/ 40°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Cold, Persistent Rain
Rain
42°/ 37°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Chilly Rain Showers
Rain
51°/ 41°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Damp and Mild Afternoon
Rain
53°/ 40°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Cold Rain; No Ice Expected
Rain
39°/ 34°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Soaking Morning Rain
Rain
41°/ 34°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Mild with Steady Rain
Rain
56°/ 38°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Morning Snow Accumulations
Snow
36°/ 29°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Icy Morning Glaze
Freezing_Rain
40°/ 31°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cold Morning Mix
Rain
45°/ 33°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Slick Icy Morning
Freezing_Rain
39°/ 30°

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Rain Showers
Rain
54°/ 36°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the surface cold air damming (CAD) in Eastern Kentucky and the Northern Bluegrass proves more resilient than modeled, ice glaze totals could exceed 0.25 inches, and Northern Kentucky could see a more efficient 3-4 inch snowfall if the warm nose remains further south.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the 850mb warm air advection scours out the surface cold layer faster (by 12Z-15Z), the icing threat would be limited to a very brief window of drizzle, with Northern Kentucky seeing only a slushy coating of snow before a rapid transition to rain.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

NKY Snow Totals Displacement

The Euro is an outlier forecasting over 2 inches of snow for Northern KY, while the GFS/NAM/GEM clusters around 1 inch. The Euro assumes a deeper cold layer and higher snow-to-liquid ratios than the marginal thermal profile likely supports.

EURO
VS
GFS
VS
NAM
Why BLEND Wins

The Euro's high totals appear overdone given the warm ground temperatures and the predicted transition to freezing rain/rain. A blend provides a more realistic slushy accumulation expectation.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KY

The Warm Nose War

A sharp disagreement exists regarding the depth and intensity of the sub-freezing surface layer. The NAM and GFS keep the Bluegrass and Northeast below freezing through mid-afternoon, suggesting significant icing. The Euro and GEM are more aggressive with surface warming, favoring a quicker transition to rain.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

The NAM is generally superior at resolving shallow cold air damming and the 'warm nose' structures in overrunning events within 48 hours. Its high vertical resolution better captures the 925mb-1000mb cold dome.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KYNORTHERN KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A classic 'warm nose' inversion is present, featuring a +4C layer at 850mb overtopping a shallow surface layer below 32F. This profile strongly favors freezing rain over snow for central transition zones.

Thermal Boundary

The freezing line is expected to stall near the I-64 corridor during the morning before slowly retreating toward the Ohio River by late afternoon.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal temperature curves are expected in the North and East, where evaporative cooling and latent heat release from freezing will keep temperatures static near 31-33F for several hours.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No true cold frontal passage; instead, a warm front will slowly lift north, marked by a gradual wind shift to the south-southeast and rising surface dewpoints.

Jet Stream Support

Strong lift is provided by the right-entrance region of a 300mb jet streak, promoting large-scale divergence and steady stratiform precipitation.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is providing a pulse of cyclonic vorticity, peaking between 09Z and 15Z Monday morning.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is deeply saturated from the surface to 500mb. Minimal virga risk exists due to dewpoint depressions under 3F.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be predominantly stratiform, characterized by steady rates and high liquid-water content.

Flooding Context

Liquid totals between 0.4 and 0.8 inches are expected. While the ground is moist, this is well below flash flood thresholds for this region.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Freezing rain risk is maximized where the surface cold dome is <1000ft deep but topped by a 3000ft warm layer. This setup exists in the Bluegrass and Northeast.

Crystal Habit

Snow in Northern KY will likely be rimed or wet as it falls through the marginal warm nose, leading to a heavy, slushy consistency.

Road Impact

Icing is most likely on elevated surfaces, bridges, and overpasses. Untreated roads in the NKY/Northeast regions will become slick during the morning commute.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Full Moon

99% Illumination
Moonrise
6:21 PM
Moonset
7:09 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:25 AM
Sunset
6:50 PM
Civil Dawn
6:59 AM
Civil Dusk
7:16 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:20 AM
Sunset
6:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:53 AM
Civil Dusk
7:10 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:21 AM
Sunset
6:46 PM
Civil Dawn
6:55 AM
Civil Dusk
7:12 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:17 AM
Sunset
6:42 PM
Civil Dawn
6:51 AM
Civil Dusk
7:08 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:15 AM
Sunset
6:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:48 AM
Civil Dusk
7:04 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:15 AM
Sunset
6:39 PM
Civil Dawn
6:48 AM
Civil Dusk
7:05 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:09 AM
Sunset
6:34 PM
Civil Dawn
6:43 AM
Civil Dusk
7:00 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:10 AM
Sunset
6:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:43 AM
Civil Dusk
6:59 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:09 AM
Sunset
6:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:43 AM
Civil Dusk
6:59 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:08 AM
Sunset
6:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:42 AM
Civil Dusk
6:59 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:02 AM
Sunset
6:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
6:52 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
6:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:38 AM
Civil Dusk
6:54 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.