Sunday, March 1
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 12:33PM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated higher amounts. Total ice accumulations of a light glaze are possible.
WHERE Portions of southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, and south central and southwest Ohio.
WHEN From 3 AM to 11 AM EST Monday.
IMPACTS Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 12:33PM EST until March 2 at 11:00AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch, with ice accumulations of several hundredths possible.
WHERE Lewis, Bracken, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Mason, Owen, Pendleton, and Robertson Counties.
WHEN From 3 AM to 11 AM EST Monday.
IMPACTS Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued March 1 at 1:46PM EST until March 2 at 12:00PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch.
WHERE Portions of the middle Ohio Valley and central West Virginia.
WHEN From 4 AM to noon EST Monday.
IMPACTS Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 1 at 1:49PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
A system moving into the area overnight will bring a mixed bag of precipitation through mid-morning on Monday. Precipitation will start as snow but quickly transition to a wintry mix by the morning commute. A light coating of snow, mainly along the I-64 corridor, and icy spots will be possible especially on bridges and overpasses. While surface temperatures will hover around freezing, some slick travel will be possible during the Monday morning commute. Motorists are encouraged to slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination Monday morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 1 at 2:59PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
Late tonight, a weather disturbance will move into the region from the west. Precipitation will likely start off as snow across much of southern Indiana, but a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will be possible, mainly in areas north of a line from Hawesville to Elizabethtown to Richmond. A slushy accumulation of up to one inch will be possible in areas along and north of the I-64 corridor. Just to the south of the I-64 corridor a light coating of snow with a light glaze of ice will be possible. While surface temperatures will be right at freezing, some slick travel will be possible during the Monday morning commute, especially on bridges and overpasses. Stay up to date with the latest forecasts and allow extra time to reach your destination Monday morning. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and your local media for the latest forecast updates.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued March 1 at 4:29PM EST by NWS Charleston WV
A disturbance will bring a mixed bag of precipitation through mid-morning on Monday. Icy spots will be possible especially on bridges and overpasses, before precipitation transitions to all rain. While surface temperatures will hover around freezing, some slick travel will be possible during the Monday morning commute. Motorists are encouraged to slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination Monday morning.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, March 1, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Showers Exit for a Breezy and Cooler Afternoon
A progressive cold front will sweep across Kentucky from northwest to southeast today. Expect a narrow band of light rain showers through the morning and early afternoon, followed by rapid clearing and gusty northwest winds as a much drier air mass arrives.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the timing of the frontal passage and the purely liquid precipitation type. Point deductions are due to minor disagreements on rainfall totals in the far west and the exact peak of afternoon wind gusts.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a dry day for the Purchase area. While the morning will start cloudy, skies will clear by the afternoon. It will turn quite breezy by the evening, and temperatures will feel cooler as they drop through the 40s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Light rain may brush the area before 8 AM, but most of the day will be dry. Winds will pick up this afternoon with gusts over 25 mph as skies turn sunny.
Southwest Pennyrile
Any morning clouds will quickly give way to a bright and sunny afternoon. Temperatures will be mild, reaching the upper 50s before the cold air arrives tonight.
Barren River
A quick round of light rain is possible between 6 AM and 10 AM. Expect clearing skies by early afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 50s.
Louisville Metro
Light rain showers will move through during the morning commute. By lunchtime, the rain will end and clouds will break, but it will turn quite windy.
Lincoln Trail
Keep the umbrella handy for the morning as light rain moves through. The rain will be gone by noon, followed by a breezy afternoon with clearing skies.
Lake Cumberland
The Lake Cumberland area should stay mostly dry today. A stray morning shower cannot be ruled out. It will be a pleasant day with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the upper 50s.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a chilly and gray start to March. While rain is unlikely, clouds will dominate the morning. Afternoon sun will return, but a biting north wind will keep temperatures feeling cold.
Inner Bluegrass
Light rain showers are expected between 8 AM and Noon. Total rain will be less than a tenth of an inch. The afternoon will be dry and sunny but quite windy, with gusts up to 25 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
A damp morning is in store with light rain tapering off by lunchtime. The afternoon will be cooler and breezy as the sun begins to peek through the clouds.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a few hours of light rain this morning, likely ending by 1 PM. Skies will clear later today, but it will be one of the colder spots in the state with a brisk wind.
Southeast Kentucky
The coalfields will see the steadiest rain in the state this morning. Rain will taper off to drizzle by mid-afternoon, and clouds may break slightly before sunset.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If frontal moisture pooling is more efficient or the boundary slows, rainfall totals could reach 0.25 inches in the Bluegrass and Eastern Kentucky, with clouds lingering through sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Strong dry air entrainment in the low levels could evaporate most precipitation before it reaches the ground, resulting in mere virga and a dry day for everyone except the high mountains.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Moisture Pulse
The ECMWF introduces a secondary wave of moisture into the Purchase area late Sunday evening, while the NAM, GFS, and GEM remain dry due to aggressive post-frontal subsidence.
Why BLEND Wins
While the Euro is often superior with moisture returns, the strong consensus of the NAM/GFS/GEM on the magnitude of post-frontal dry air suggests the Euro is an outlier. The forecast leans drier for the daytime but maintains a low-end PoP for the evening.
Post-Frontal Momentum Transfer
The NAM and GFS suggest much higher wind gusts (25-30 mph) following the frontal passage compared to the lighter ECMWF solution.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the mixed layer and pressure gradient force better in post-frontal environments. Given the 110kt jet aloft, higher gust potential is physically more plausible.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.