Wednesday, February 25
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Wednesday, February 25, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Blustery with Passing Showers; Gusts Up to 45 MPH
A fast-moving cold front will sweep across Kentucky during the morning hours, bringing gusty winds and light, scattered showers primarily to the northern and eastern halves of the state. Following a brief afternoon lull, a southern stream impulse will return light rain chances to the southern tier during the evening. No wintry precipitation is expected as temperatures remain unseasonably mild.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in precipitation type and the arrival of gusty winds; however, model disagreement on the northern extent of evening moisture and the exact magnitude of wind gusts in the Bluegrass slightly lowers the score.
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Purchase Area
The day begins with very windy conditions as gusts reach up to 41 mph before noon. After a mostly dry afternoon with some sunshine, light rain showers will move in after 6 PM.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a very windy and gray start to Wednesday with gusts up to 42 mph. A few light sprinkles are possible late in the evening, but most of the day will remain dry.
Southwest Pennyrile
A windy day with gusts near 40 mph will transition into a damp evening. Light rain showers will become more frequent after 6 PM, with around a tenth of an inch of rainfall.
Barren River
Hold onto your hat in Bowling Green today as winds gust to 43 mph. Light rain is expected to develop during the evening and persist through the overnight hours.
Louisville Metro
A very blustery day is expected for the Louisville area. While clouds will be plentiful and winds will gust to 41 mph, the metro area should remain dry throughout the day.
Lincoln Trail
Morning wind gusts reaching 42 mph will be the main story. A few light sprinkles or light rain showers are possible after sunset, though most will stay dry.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be most noticeable here, especially after sunset. Expect around a tenth of an inch of rain following a very windy morning with gusts over 40 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Light rain showers will impact the morning commute before clearing out by noon. Winds will remain gusty and chilly, making it feel like it is in the 30s.
Inner Bluegrass
Winds will be very strong today with gusts up to 45 mph, especially during the morning. A few light rain showers will pass through before lunchtime, followed by a dry afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a blustery morning with gusts as high as 46 mph. Light rain showers will move through before noon, with the rest of the day remaining mostly dry.
Northeast Kentucky
Light rain will affect the region during the morning hours, totaling a few hundredths of an inch. Winds will gust to 37 mph before the sun attempts to peek through the clouds late.
Southeast Kentucky
A soggy day is expected in the mountains with light rain occurring this morning and again late this evening. High peaks will see some fog and gusty winds over 40 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario for this event involves the 850mb jet mixing more efficiently to the surface, resulting in widespread 50mph gusts in the Bluegrass. Additionally, if the southern moisture plume shifts 50 miles further north, the I-64 corridor could see measurable rainfall during the evening hours.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario assumes the dry air in the 700-500mb layer wins out, leading to widespread virga during the morning and evening, resulting in many areas remaining dry with nothing more than a few sprinkles.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Transfer Tussle
The NAM and GFS suggest a vigorous low-level jet mixing down 40-45 mph gusts, while the Euro remains much more conservative with wind speeds.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles the mechanical mixing and momentum transfer in the boundary layer significantly better than the global models during fast-moving frontal passages.
The Evening Moisture Cutoff
Disagreement exists on how far north the evening rain shield from the southern stream system will travel.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM provides a more realistic representation of the dry slot erosion, keeping the bulk of the evening precipitation focused along the TN/KY border.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.