Thursday, February 26
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 26 at 4:01AM EST until February 26 at 5:30AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, McCreary and Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Harlan and Knox.
WHEN Until 530 AM EST.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 400 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. This will cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 0.8 and 1.7 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will allow any ongoing minor flooding to continue. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Barbourville, Harlan, Pineville, Loyall, Evarts, Wallins Creek, Old Flat Lick, Himyar, Flat Lick, Baughman, Bimble, Dewitt, Avis, Yeager, Artemus, Fourmile, Brush Creek, Trosper, Myrick and Walker.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 26 at 7:18AM EST until February 26 at 9:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Urban and small stream flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, McCreary and Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Harlan and Knox.
WHEN Until 900 AM EST.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 717 AM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain has fallen. This will probably cause urban and small stream flooding. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.3 inches are expected over the area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Barbourville, Harlan, Pineville, Loyall, Evarts, Wallins Creek, Old Flat Lick, Himyar, Flat Lick, Baughman, Bimble, Dewitt, Avis, Yeager, Artemus, Fourmile, Brush Creek, Trosper, Myrick and Walker.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 26 at 7:29AM EST by NWS Louisville KY
An area of wet, dense snow is resulting in light accumulations this morning over northern Kentucky and southern Indiana, specifically along and north of I-64. Brief travel impacts are possible due to slick roads and lower visibilities through late morning.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Thursday, February 26, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Morning Soaking Rain; Slushy Flakes Possible Near Ohio River
A progressive southern-stream shortwave will track across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, spreading a broad shield of rain across Kentucky. While most of the state sees a cold, steady rain, marginal thermal profiles in Northern Kentucky may support a brief period of slushy snow during the morning commute before transitioning to rain and clearing by afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in a rainy morning for the southern half of KY, but significant disagreement regarding the rain/snow transition in the north and the exact timing of the afternoon clearing trend leads to a lower overall score.
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Purchase Area
Expect light rain showers during the early morning hours, but the rain will wrap up quickly. Skies will turn sunny by the afternoon, allowing temperatures to reach the upper 50s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A period of steady rain is likely through the morning commute. Rain will taper off by midday, followed by clearing skies and breezy conditions.
Southwest Pennyrile
Steady rain will impact the region through the morning, making for a damp start to the day. Clouds will break for sunshine late in the afternoon.
Barren River
Rain will be steadiest and heaviest before lunch. Expect wet roads through the morning hours before showers taper off and clouds begin to thin.
Louisville Metro
Expect a rainy morning with temperatures hovering in the 30s. While it will feel raw, the urban heat island should keep everything as rain in the city.
Lincoln Trail
Morning rain will lead to wet travel across the region. Clouds will likely hang on through the mid-afternoon with a chilly breeze.
Lake Cumberland
This region will see some of the highest rain totals in the state today. Expect steady rain through most of the afternoon before it tapers to drizzle.
Northern Kentucky
Rain may mix with or turn to wet snow during the morning commute. Accumulations around 0.5 inches are possible on grassy surfaces before it turns back to rain.
Inner Bluegrass
A cold rain will fall through the morning in Lexington. While some snowflakes may mix in early, no accumulation is expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect light rain throughout much of the morning. Highs will only reach the mid-40s as clouds linger longer than in the west.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will arrive a little later here than in the west. Expect a cold, damp evening with rain showers persisting through dusk.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will be widespread and soaking across the mountains today. Thick fog is likely in the valleys during the morning and evening hours.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If dynamic cooling maximizes and the 850mb warm nose erodes faster than expected, Northern Kentucky and the Bluegrass Core could see a quick 1-2 inches of heavy, wet snow on grassy surfaces, while southern totals exceed 1 inch of rain.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the warm nose remains robust (as suggested by the Euro) or the dry air in the NAM erodes the moisture shield, Northern Kentucky stays entirely rain/drizzle with negligible accumulations, and rain totals elsewhere stay below a quarter inch.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northern Slush Struggle
The GFS and GEM are aggressive with a surface-based cold layer (32F) in Northern KY, producing 0.5" to 1.5" of snow. The NAM and Euro keep surface temps just high enough (34-36F) for a cold rain or rain/snow mix with no accumulation.
Why GEM Wins
The GEM typically handles shallow cold air pools and the impact of non-diurnal cooling during precipitation better than global counterparts. A compromise of 0.5 inches of slush accounts for wet-bulb cooling without over-relying on the GFS's high-ratio snow calculation.
The Northern Moisture Cutoff
NAM soundings show significant dry air in the 850-700mb layer, which would significantly limit precipitation totals along the I-64 corridor compared to the more saturated GFS/Euro solutions.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF's handling of moisture transport in progressive southern stream systems is historically more reliable than the NAM's tendency to over-dry the northern fringe of stratiform shields.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.