Tuesday, February 24
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:54AM EST until February 24 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Rounds of snow showers. Additional snow accumulations through midnight of up to 1 inch. Locally higher amounts are possible in any areas of more persistent snow showers. Accumulations of up to 2 inches could occur above 3000 feet elevation.
WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on times of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads and significant differences in road conditions over rather short distances. During or following a snow shower, any untreated roads and surfaces, as well as bridges and overpasses, may be icy in some locations. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 5:08PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Some light snow accumulations are anticipated this evening as scattered to numerous now showers track across the area. The snow showers will be most persistent east of I-75, however, portions of the Interstate 75 corridor between the KY and TN border and the Rockcastle and Madison county line may be affected. Wind gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph could occur in the heavier snow showers. This, when combined with the falling snow, may result in sudden sharp visibility reductions over short distances and quick light snow accumulations. Temperatures will be in the 20s and as the evening progresses, expect times of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads. Any untreated roads and surfaces, including bridges, overpasses, decks, and steps may be icy. If traveling this, slow down and exercise caution. Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 9:56PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Some light snow accumulations remain possible through midnight as scattered snow showers track across the area. The snow showers will be most prevalent east of I-75. The heavier snow showers will also result in visibility reductions over short distances and quick light snow accumulations. Temperatures remain generally in the 20s, thus expect areas of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads. Any untreated roads and surfaces, including bridges, overpasses, decks, and steps may become icy. If traveling this, slow down and exercise caution. Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:44PM EST until February 24 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Scattered snow showers. Additional snow accumulations of a dusting to one half inch. Locally higher amounts are possible above 2000 feet and in the most persistent areas of snow showers.
WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.
IMPACTS Plan on areas of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads and significant differences in road conditions over rather short distances. During or following a snow shower, any untreated roads and surfaces, as well as bridges and overpasses, may become icy in some locations. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
If traveling, slow down and exercise caution. Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:44PM EST until February 24 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Scattered snow showers. Additional snow accumulations of a dusting to one half inch.
WHERE Leslie County.
WHEN Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.
IMPACTS Plan on areas of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads and significant differences in road conditions over rather short distances. During or following a snow shower, any untreated roads and surfaces, as well as bridges and overpasses, may become icy in some locations. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
If traveling, slow down and exercise caution. Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 11:47PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Some light snow accumulations remain possible through 1 AM EST as isolated to scattered snow showers track across the area. The snow showers will be most prevalent near or east of US 421. Temperatures remain generally in the 20s, thus expect areas of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads. Any untreated roads and surfaces, including bridges, overpasses, decks, and steps may become icy. If traveling, slow down and exercise caution. Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 24 at 12:48AM CST by NWS Paducah KY
Strong gusty southwest winds are expected to develop later today. Gusts are expected between 25 and 35 mph. Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 25 to 35 percent in the afternoon. Given the very dry conditions across the region there is an elevated risk for wildfire/brushfire growth and spread today for any fires that get started. Exercise extra caution today in avoiding actions that could lead to fire starts.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, February 24, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Bitter Morning Start Leading to a Windy and Milder Afternoon
A sharp transition will occur across Kentucky on Tuesday as a departing arctic high pressure system gives way to a potent southerly wind regime. After a frigid start with wind chills in the single digits, temperatures will recover into the 40s for most of the state by late afternoon. While skies will turn overcast, the primary story is the wind; southerly gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected by the evening, particularly in central and western regions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the overall warming trend and dry conditions. Moderate confidence in the exact peak of wind gusts, as this depends on the depth of boundary layer mixing.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a very chilly start, but temperatures will climb into the upper 40s by the afternoon. The biggest story will be the wind, with southerly gusts reaching up to 48 mph by sunset.
Northwest Pennyrile
A cold morning leads to a gray and blustery afternoon with highs in the mid-40s. Wind gusts will pick up significantly after lunch, peaking near 46 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
A frigid start in the low 20s will give way to a windy afternoon. Highs will reach 45 degrees, but gusts of 48 mph will make it feel much cooler.
Barren River
Winds will be the primary concern, with gusts reaching 52 mph tonight. Skies will be overcast with high temperatures peaking in the mid-40s.
Louisville Metro
Expect a gray and blustery day in the city with highs in the low 40s. Southerly winds will gust over 43 mph, especially this evening.
Lincoln Trail
The Muldraugh escarpment will see high winds tonight with gusts reaching 49 mph. Afternoon temperatures will hover around 41 degrees under cloudy skies.
Lake Cumberland
A beautiful but cold morning will fade into a cloudy and windy evening. High temperatures will reach the low 40s with wind gusts near 44 mph.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will stay chilly today, with highs only in the upper 30s. Winds will be noticeable tonight, gusting up to 46 mph.
Inner Bluegrass
A biting morning wind chill near 10 degrees will give way to an afternoon in the upper 30s. Open terrain will allow winds to gust up to 53 mph late tonight.
Bluegrass Foothills
A cold morning will be followed by a very windy afternoon with gusts near 52 mph. No rain or snow is expected, just thick clouds by sunset.
Northeast Kentucky
Valleys will stay cold longer today, with highs in the upper 30s. Clouds will move in by the afternoon, and winds will gust to 40 mph tonight.
Southeast Kentucky
You may see a thin dusting of snow on the grass very early this morning. Accumulations will be around 0.2 inches and will melt by mid-morning as we reach 40 degrees.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level inversion breaks earlier than expected and mixing reaches 850mb fully, wind gusts could exceed 55 mph across the Bluegrass and Pennyrile regions, potentially requiring Wind Advisories.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level cloud deck remains thicker and lower than modeled, afternoon highs could stall in the upper 30s, and wind gusts may be dampened to the 30-35 mph range due to less efficient mixing.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Mix-Down
A significant discrepancy exists regarding the magnitude of surface wind gusts. The NAM and GFS are aggressive, suggesting gusts of 45-53 mph as the low-level jet intensifies, while the ECMWF is much more conservative, keeping gusts closer to 30 mph.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles boundary layer mixing and the sharpening of the pressure gradient more accurately in high-wind WAA scenarios within 24-36 hours.
The Cloud Cover Conflict
Models disagree on how quickly the mid-level moisture deck moves in. The ECMWF suggests a gray-out from dawn, whereas the GFS and GEM suggest several hours of morning sun before clouds thicken.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS typically handles the erosion of arctic high-pressure cloud shields better than the ECMWF, which tends to over-saturate the mid-levels prematurely.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.