kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Feb 23
Wed, Feb 25
Forecast For

Tuesday, February 24

Updated Feb 24, 5:50 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 23, 11:54 AM -> Feb 23, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:54AM EST until February 24 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 23, 5:08 PM -> Feb 24, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 5:08PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 23, 9:56 PM -> Feb 24, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 9:56PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 23, 11:44 PM -> Feb 24, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:44PM EST until February 24 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 23, 11:44 PM -> Feb 24, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:44PM EST until February 24 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 23, 11:47 PM -> Feb 24, 1:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 11:47PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 24, 1:48 AM -> Feb 24, 2:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 24 at 12:48AM CST by NWS Paducah KY

Confidence
75%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Tuesday, February 24, 2026.

Temperature
±1.9°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.01"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±9.8mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
46° / 20°
Actual
49° / 16°
Error: -3°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 48 mph
Actual
6 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
44° / 21°
Actual
46° / 15°
Error: -2°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 46 mph
Actual
7 / 31 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
45° / 20°
Actual
48° / 14°
Error: -3°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 48 mph
Actual
7 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
44° / 20°
Actual
43° / 16°
Error: 1°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 52 mph
Actual
6 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
41° / 23°
Actual
39° / 19°
Error: 2°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 43 mph
Actual
9 / 30 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
41° / 21°
Actual
41° / 16°
Error: 0°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
19 / 49 mph
Actual
6 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
42° / 21°
Actual
45° / 16°
Error: -3°F high, 5°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 44 mph
Actual
5 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
37° / 21°
Actual
36° / 17°
Error: 1°F high, 4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 46 mph
Actual
6 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
38° / 21°
Actual
39° / 18°
Error: -1°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
20 / 53 mph
Actual
9 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
39° / 21°
Actual
41° / 18°
Error: -2°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 52 mph
Actual
6 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
37° / 23°
Actual
36° / 17°
Error: 1°F high, 6°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 40 mph
Actual
5 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
40° / 18°
Actual
44° / 19°
Error: -4°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
0.07"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
10 / 40 mph
Actual
3 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Bitter Morning Start Leading to a Windy and Milder Afternoon

A sharp transition will occur across Kentucky on Tuesday as a departing arctic high pressure system gives way to a potent southerly wind regime. After a frigid start with wind chills in the single digits, temperatures will recover into the 40s for most of the state by late afternoon. While skies will turn overcast, the primary story is the wind; southerly gusts between 40 and 50 mph are expected by the evening, particularly in central and western regions.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the overall warming trend and dry conditions. Moderate confidence in the exact peak of wind gusts, as this depends on the depth of boundary layer mixing.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Windy and Turning Overcast
Cloudy
46°/ 20°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Gale-Force Gusts Possible
Cloudy
44°/ 21°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Breezy with Thickening Clouds
Cloudy
45°/ 20°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
High Wind Risk This Evening
Cloudy
44°/ 20°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Clouds Thicken, Winds Howl
Cloudy
41°/ 23°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Windy Ridge Conditions
Cloudy
41°/ 21°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Sunny Morning, Cloudy Afternoon
Cloudy
42°/ 21°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Staying Cold and Blustery
Cloudy
37°/ 21°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Windswept Bluegrass Plateau
Cloudy
38°/ 21°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Strong Winds This Evening
Cloudy
39°/ 21°

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Cold and Cloudy Valley
Cloudy
37°/ 23°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Morning Dusting of Snow
Snow
40°/ 18°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the low-level inversion breaks earlier than expected and mixing reaches 850mb fully, wind gusts could exceed 55 mph across the Bluegrass and Pennyrile regions, potentially requiring Wind Advisories.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the mid-level cloud deck remains thicker and lower than modeled, afternoon highs could stall in the upper 30s, and wind gusts may be dampened to the 30-35 mph range due to less efficient mixing.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Momentum Mix-Down

A significant discrepancy exists regarding the magnitude of surface wind gusts. The NAM and GFS are aggressive, suggesting gusts of 45-53 mph as the low-level jet intensifies, while the ECMWF is much more conservative, keeping gusts closer to 30 mph.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
ECMWF
Why NAM Wins

The NAM handles boundary layer mixing and the sharpening of the pressure gradient more accurately in high-wind WAA scenarios within 24-36 hours.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS COREBARREN RIVERLOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAIL

The Cloud Cover Conflict

Models disagree on how quickly the mid-level moisture deck moves in. The ECMWF suggests a gray-out from dawn, whereas the GFS and GEM suggest several hours of morning sun before clouds thicken.

GFS
VS
ECMWF
VS
GEM
Why GFS Wins

The GFS typically handles the erosion of arctic high-pressure cloud shields better than the ECMWF, which tends to over-saturate the mid-levels prematurely.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILENORTHERN KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A strong surface-based radiational inversion is present at 12Z with temperatures in the teens and low 20s. Rapid modification occurs via 850mb WAA, transitioning to a non-diurnal warming trend by evening.

Thermal Boundary

The 0C isotherm at 850mb pushes north of the Ohio River by 18Z, though cold air remains stubborn in the Northeast valleys.

Diurnal Trend

Steep diurnal rise followed by a steady or slightly rising temperature curve after sunset due to thick clouds and strong southerly flow.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No front; evidence of WAA regime seen in the 180-degree wind shift and 40kt+ LLJ arrival.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky sits in the right entrance region of a 120kt polar jet, providing subsidence that reinforces the dry low-level air.

Energy Status

Vorticity levels remain low through the day, with a compact shortwave trough not arriving until after the forecast period ends.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Highly undersaturated below 800mb. Mid-level saturation (700-500mb) will produce clouds and virga, but no measurable rain.

Precipitation Character

Mostly dry, with the exception of lingering early morning stratiform flurries in the Southeast mountains.

Flooding Context

No risk; the dry antecedent conditions and lack of precipitation preclude any hydrologic issues.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Cold column at daybreak allows for early flurries in the SE, but a warm nose quickly develops by noon, ending any wintry threat.

Crystal Habit

15:1 ratio for early flurries in the SE Coalfields, favoring small dendrites or needles before moisture exits.

Road Impact

Negligible; any morning dusting in the mountains will melt rapidly as surface temps rise above freezing by 10 AM.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

First Quarter

51% Illumination
Moonrise
11:31 AM
Moonset
2:06 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:33 AM
Sunset
6:44 PM
Civil Dawn
7:07 AM
Civil Dusk
7:10 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:28 AM
Sunset
6:37 PM
Civil Dawn
7:01 AM
Civil Dusk
7:04 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:29 AM
Sunset
6:40 PM
Civil Dawn
7:02 AM
Civil Dusk
7:06 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:25 AM
Sunset
6:36 PM
Civil Dawn
6:58 AM
Civil Dusk
7:02 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:23 AM
Sunset
6:31 PM
Civil Dawn
6:56 AM
Civil Dusk
6:58 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:23 AM
Sunset
6:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:56 AM
Civil Dusk
6:59 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:17 AM
Sunset
6:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:51 AM
Civil Dusk
6:54 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:19 AM
Sunset
6:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:52 AM
Civil Dusk
6:53 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:18 AM
Sunset
6:27 PM
Civil Dawn
6:51 AM
Civil Dusk
6:53 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:17 AM
Sunset
6:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:50 AM
Civil Dusk
6:53 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:11 AM
Sunset
6:19 PM
Civil Dawn
6:44 AM
Civil Dusk
6:46 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:12 AM
Sunset
6:22 PM
Civil Dawn
6:45 AM
Civil Dusk
6:49 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.