kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sun, Feb 22
Tue, Feb 24
Forecast For

Monday, February 23

Updated Feb 23, 5:59 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 3:02 PM -> Feb 22, 11:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 3:02PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 22, 4:06 PM -> Feb 23, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 4:06PM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 22, 4:06 PM -> Feb 23, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 4:06PM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 6:53 PM -> Feb 23, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 6:53PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 23, 11:54 AM -> Feb 23, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:54AM EST until February 24 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 23, 11:54 AM -> Feb 23, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:54AM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 23, 11:57 AM -> Feb 23, 6:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 11:57AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 23, 5:08 PM -> Feb 24, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 5:08PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
60%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, February 23, 2026.

Temperature
±1.8°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.22"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±3.6mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 19°
Actual
35° / 19°
Error: -3°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 25 mph
Actual
9 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 18°
Actual
32° / 18°
Error: -1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 22 mph
Actual
11 / 32 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 18°
Actual
33° / 18°
Error: -2°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 24 mph
Actual
10 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 19°
Actual
33° / 18°
Error: -2°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 21 mph
Actual
12 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 21°
Actual
29° / 19°
Error: 3°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 23 mph
Actual
11 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 19°
Actual
33° / 17°
Error: -3°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 22 mph
Actual
10 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 21°
Actual
32° / 18°
Error: -2°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 21 mph
Actual
8 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 22°
Actual
28° / 20°
Error: 1°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
0.16"
±0.33999999999999997" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 25 mph
Actual
8 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 20°
Actual
28° / 20°
Error: 1°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.1"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 27 mph
Actual
13 / 28 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 21°
Actual
32° / 20°
Error: -3°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 24 mph
Actual
9 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 24°
Actual
30° / 21°
Error: 1°F high, 3°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.4"
Actual
0.19"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 25 mph
Actual
8 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
28° / 20°
Actual
28° / 19°
Error: 0°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
2.37"
±1.77" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 22 mph
Actual
5 / 27 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Arctic Grip: Frigid Winds and Scattered Eastern Snow

A potent Arctic high-pressure system will settle over Kentucky on Monday, bringing the coldest air of the season thus far. While the western half of the state will enjoy some sunshine, a weak upper-level disturbance will interact with residual moisture to produce light snow showers and flurries across Northern and Eastern Kentucky.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in sub-freezing temperatures and wind chills; moderate confidence in the exact placement of light snow accumulations due to the moisture-starved nature of the Arctic air mass.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Cold and Sunny
Sunny
32°/ 19°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Brisk and Bright
Sunny
31°/ 18°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Sunny and Freezing
Sunny
31°/ 18°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Chilly and Mostly Clear
Sunny
31°/ 19°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Sunny but Cold
Sunny
32°/ 21°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Hard Freeze Continues
Sunny
30°/ 19°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Gloomy and Very Cold
Cloudy
30°/ 21°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Light Snow Showers
Snow
29°/ 22°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Breezy with Flurries
Cloudy
29°/ 20°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cold and Snowy Morning
Snow
29°/ 21°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Light Snow Accumulations
Snow
31°/ 24°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Snow Dusting
Snow
28°/ 20°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the mid-level shortwave tracks slightly further south and moisture depth increases by 1-2k feet, snow totals in the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky could reach 1-2 inches with more widespread coverage.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry Arctic air mass scours out the low-level moisture faster than anticipated, snow showers will be reduced to non-accumulating flurries or 'virga' that evaporates before reaching the ground.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Eastern Snow Accumulation Disparity

The GEM is the most aggressive with moisture, suggesting nearly an inch of snow for Northern KY and the Coalfields. The NAM is much drier, showing only a dusting.

NAM
VS
GEM
VS
GFS
Why GEM Wins

GEM typically handles the mechanical lift and high snow-to-liquid ratios (15:1) of Arctic air masses better than the coarser GFS. Given the persistent NW flow, the GEM's higher totals in upslope areas are more physically plausible.

Affected Regions
NORTHERN KYNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Cloud Clearing Conflict

The ECMWF remains an outlier by holding onto a thick stratus deck statewide, keeping temperatures in the 20s. The GFS, NAM, and GEM all show significantly faster clearing in the west, allowing for better diurnal recovery.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why BLEND Wins

The 1040mb high-pressure center is strong enough to likely scour out low-level moisture in the west, favoring the drier GFS/NAM/GEM solution for sky cover, while using the ECMWF to temper the high-end temperature recovery.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVER

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A textbook Arctic profile is in place with a deeply cold column. 850mb temperatures between -12C and -15C ensure any precipitation remains frozen from top to bottom. No warm nose or melting layers are present.

Thermal Boundary

The 32-degree freezing line is suppressed well south into Tennessee and Alabama, keeping 100% of Kentucky in the cold sector.

Diurnal Trend

A non-diurnal trend will be noted in the east due to heavy cloud cover, while the west follows a standard but suppressed diurnal curve. Radiational cooling will be significant Monday night as the high-pressure center arrives.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A secondary Arctic cold front passed the previous evening; sustained NW winds of 10-15 mph and falling dewpoints are the primary evidence of the new air mass arrival.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky sits on the cold side of a 110kt jet streak, providing broad upper-level divergence that assists the weak shortwave energy in the east.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is currently pivoting through the base of the longwave trough over the Great Lakes, providing the primary forced lift for snow.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated through the mid-levels in the east. The western half of the state shows a significant dry slot below 800mb, creating a high risk of virga (snow evaporating before hitting the ground).

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be predominantly stratiform light snow with occasional bursts of orographically enhanced showers in the mountain regions.

Flooding Context

Zero flooding risk; the ground is cold and precipitation amounts are very low (liquid equivalents < 0.10").

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

The entire vertical stack is below freezing. The Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) is saturated in the east, which will support high-quality, high-ratio snow crystals.

Crystal Habit

Expect fluffy, high-ratio dendrites (15:1) where moisture is deepest, though high surface winds may fracture some flakes.

Road Impact

Pavement temperatures are below freezing. Even light accumulations will stick immediately to roads, potentially causing slick spots on bridges and overpasses.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

39% Illumination
Moonrise
10:44 AM
Moonset
12:50 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:34 AM
Sunset
6:43 PM
Civil Dawn
7:08 AM
Civil Dusk
7:09 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:29 AM
Sunset
6:36 PM
Civil Dawn
7:03 AM
Civil Dusk
7:03 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:30 AM
Sunset
6:39 PM
Civil Dawn
7:04 AM
Civil Dusk
7:05 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:26 AM
Sunset
6:35 PM
Civil Dawn
7:00 AM
Civil Dusk
7:01 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:24 AM
Sunset
6:30 PM
Civil Dawn
6:58 AM
Civil Dusk
6:57 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:24 AM
Sunset
6:31 PM
Civil Dawn
6:58 AM
Civil Dusk
6:58 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:18 AM
Sunset
6:27 PM
Civil Dawn
6:52 AM
Civil Dusk
6:53 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:20 AM
Sunset
6:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:53 AM
Civil Dusk
6:52 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:19 AM
Sunset
6:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:52 AM
Civil Dusk
6:52 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:18 AM
Sunset
6:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:51 AM
Civil Dusk
6:52 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:12 AM
Sunset
6:18 PM
Civil Dawn
6:45 AM
Civil Dusk
6:44 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:13 AM
Sunset
6:21 PM
Civil Dawn
6:47 AM
Civil Dusk
6:48 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.