Monday, February 23
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 3:02PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Minor snow accumulations are expected through Monday as rounds of snow showers track across the area. Wind gusts as high as 30 mph could occur in the heavier snow showers. This, when combined with the falling snow, may produce sudden sharp visibility reductions and quick light snow accumulations, especially through this evening and on Monday afternoon. Event total snow accumulations between a dusting and around 1 inch are expected, with locally higher amounts possible where snow showers are the most persistent. Air temperatures during this time will range from the 20s to the lower 30s, so minor impacts to travel are possible.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 4:06PM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.
WHERE Bell and Leslie Counties.
WHEN Until 7 PM EST Monday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph in the heavier snow showers, combined with the falling snow may cause sudden visibility reductions, mainly this evening and on Monday.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 4:06PM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Rounds of snow showers are expected, resulting in event total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches for most locations, with locally higher amounts possible. Accumulations up to 6 inches are possible above 3000 feet elevation.
WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until 7 PM EST Monday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions and significant differences in road conditions at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts as high as 20 to 30 mph in the heavier snow showers, combined with the falling snow may cause sudden visibility reductions, mainly this evening and on Monday.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 6:53PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH
Snow showers will continue overnight. Slick spots will be possible overnight and into Monday morning with temperatures below freezing. Visibility will also be reduced with some of these snow showers. Gusty winds will add to the visibility dropping with some of these snow showers. Remain alert while walking or driving as you might not always able to be see slick spots.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:54AM EST until February 24 at 12:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Rounds of snow showers. Additional snow accumulations through midnight of up to 1 inch. Locally higher amounts are possible in any areas of more persistent snow showers. Accumulations of up to 2 inches could occur above 3000 feet elevation.
WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN Until midnight EST tonight.
IMPACTS Plan on times of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads and significant differences in road conditions over rather short distances. During or following a snow shower, any untreated roads and surfaces, as well as bridges and overpasses, may be icy in some locations. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 23 at 11:54AM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Rounds of snow showers. Additional snow accumulations through 7 PM of a dusting to one half inch, with locally higher amounts in any areas of more persistent snow showers.
WHERE Bell and Leslie Counties.
WHEN Until 7 PM EST this evening.
IMPACTS Plan on times of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads and significant differences in road conditions over rather short distances. During or following a snow shower, any untreated roads and surfaces, as well as bridges and overpasses, may be icy in some locations. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 11:57AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Some light snow accumulations will continue into this evening as rounds of snow showers track across the area. Wind gusts as high as 30 mph could occur in the heavier snow showers. This, when combined with the falling snow, could produce sudden sharp visibility reductions and quick light snow accumulations. Expect event total snow accumulations between a dusting and around 1 inch, with locally higher amounts possible wherever snow showers are the most persistent. Temperatures will be in the 20s for most areas, so expect times of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads. Any untreated roads and surfaces, including bridges, overpasses, decks, and steps may be icy. If traveling today, slow down and exercise caution. Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 23 at 5:08PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Some light snow accumulations are anticipated this evening as scattered to numerous now showers track across the area. The snow showers will be most persistent east of I-75, however, portions of the Interstate 75 corridor between the KY and TN border and the Rockcastle and Madison county line may be affected. Wind gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph could occur in the heavier snow showers. This, when combined with the falling snow, may result in sudden sharp visibility reductions over short distances and quick light snow accumulations. Temperatures will be in the 20s and as the evening progresses, expect times of slick, slushy, or snow covered roads. Any untreated roads and surfaces, including bridges, overpasses, decks, and steps may be icy. If traveling this, slow down and exercise caution. Allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Monday, February 23, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Arctic Grip: Frigid Winds and Scattered Eastern Snow
A potent Arctic high-pressure system will settle over Kentucky on Monday, bringing the coldest air of the season thus far. While the western half of the state will enjoy some sunshine, a weak upper-level disturbance will interact with residual moisture to produce light snow showers and flurries across Northern and Eastern Kentucky.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in sub-freezing temperatures and wind chills; moderate confidence in the exact placement of light snow accumulations due to the moisture-starved nature of the Arctic air mass.
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Purchase Area
Expect a bright but very cold day across the Purchase area. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark, and a biting wind will make it feel much colder.
Northwest Pennyrile
A clear, cold day is in store for the region. Winds off the Ohio River will add an extra chill to the air throughout the afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
You will need a heavy coat today as temperatures remain near or below freezing. Full sunshine will be deceptive given the single-digit morning wind chills.
Barren River
Clouds will break up by mid-morning, leading to a sunny but cold afternoon. Expect wind chills to stay in the teens for most of the day.
Louisville Metro
The metro area will see clearing skies and cold temperatures. While the sun will be out, it won't offer much warmth as highs remain near the freezing mark.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a gray start to the day with skies clearing by late morning. It will remain quite cold with highs struggling to reach 30 degrees.
Lake Cumberland
Clouds will be stubborn today, keeping the area gray and cold. A few flurries are possible in the morning, but no meaningful snow is expected.
Northern Kentucky
Light snow will fall on and off throughout the day. Accumulations around 0.5 inches are expected, which could make bridges and overpasses slick.
Inner Bluegrass
It will be a raw day with clouds, cold winds, and occasional snow flurries. While most areas will only see a dusting, a few spots could see a light coating.
Bluegrass Foothills
A few snow showers will move through during the first half of the day. Expect a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces and very cold temperatures.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect light snow showers to persist through much of the day. Total accumulations of about 0.5 inches are likely, mostly on the grass and elevated surfaces.
Southeast Kentucky
Light but steady snow showers will affect the mountains today. Accumulations around 0.6 inches are likely, with nearly an inch possible on the highest peaks.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level shortwave tracks slightly further south and moisture depth increases by 1-2k feet, snow totals in the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky could reach 1-2 inches with more widespread coverage.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry Arctic air mass scours out the low-level moisture faster than anticipated, snow showers will be reduced to non-accumulating flurries or 'virga' that evaporates before reaching the ground.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Eastern Snow Accumulation Disparity
The GEM is the most aggressive with moisture, suggesting nearly an inch of snow for Northern KY and the Coalfields. The NAM is much drier, showing only a dusting.
Why GEM Wins
GEM typically handles the mechanical lift and high snow-to-liquid ratios (15:1) of Arctic air masses better than the coarser GFS. Given the persistent NW flow, the GEM's higher totals in upslope areas are more physically plausible.
The Cloud Clearing Conflict
The ECMWF remains an outlier by holding onto a thick stratus deck statewide, keeping temperatures in the 20s. The GFS, NAM, and GEM all show significantly faster clearing in the west, allowing for better diurnal recovery.
Why BLEND Wins
The 1040mb high-pressure center is strong enough to likely scour out low-level moisture in the west, favoring the drier GFS/NAM/GEM solution for sky cover, while using the ECMWF to temper the high-end temperature recovery.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.