kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Feb 21
Mon, Feb 23
Forecast For

Sunday, February 22

Updated Feb 22, 5:49 AM EST

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 21, 1:42 PM -> Feb 22, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 21 at 1:42PM EST until February 23 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 21, 1:58 PM -> Feb 22, 12:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 21 at 1:58PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 21, 4:31 PM -> Feb 21, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 21 at 4:31PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 21, 10:59 PM -> Feb 22, 6:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 21 at 10:59PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 21, 11:11 PM -> Feb 22, 7:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 21 at 11:11PM EST until February 23 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 3:15 AM -> Feb 22, 11:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 3:15AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 22, 3:20 AM -> Feb 22, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 3:20AM EST until February 23 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 22, 3:20 AM -> Feb 22, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 3:20AM EST until February 23 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 4:10 AM -> Feb 22, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 4:10AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 4:39 AM -> Feb 22, 3:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 4:39AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 6:04 AM -> Feb 22, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 6:04AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 8:14 AM -> Feb 22, 1:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 8:14AM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 11:02 AM -> Feb 22, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 11:02AM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 12:01 PM -> Feb 22, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 12:01PM EST by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 12:26 PM -> Feb 22, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 12:26PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 1:08 PM -> Feb 22, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 1:08PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 1:11 PM -> Feb 22, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 1:11PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 3:02 PM -> Feb 22, 11:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 3:02PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 3:08 PM -> Feb 22, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 3:08PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 3:08 PM -> Feb 22, 7:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 3:08PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 22, 4:06 PM -> Feb 23, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 4:06PM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 22, 4:06 PM -> Feb 23, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 22 at 4:06PM EST until February 23 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Feb 22, 6:53 PM -> Feb 23, 1:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 22 at 6:53PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

Confidence
60%

How Did We Do?

Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Sunday, February 22, 2026.

Temperature
±10.3°F
Average Error
Precipitation
±0.27"
Average Error
Wind Speed
±9.3mph
Average error

Regional Assessments

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Temperature
Forecast
34° / 25°
Actual
39° / 27°
Error: -5°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 27 mph
Actual
5 / 25 mph
Mesonet Stations HCKM, BAND

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 24°
Actual
36° / 22°
Error: -5°F high, 2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 26 mph
Actual
6 / 29 mph
Mesonet Stations FRNY, RPTN, GRHM, DIXO

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 25°
Actual
37° / 24°
Error: -4°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
18 / 27 mph
Actual
6 / 26 mph
Mesonet Stations PRNC, PGHL, ERLN, CADZ, CCTY

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 26°
Actual
40° / 26°
Error: -9°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
17 / 26 mph
Actual
6 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations FARM, WDBY, EWPK

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 26°
Actual
37° / 26°
Error: -7°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.2"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 22 mph
Actual
7 / 16 mph
Mesonet Stations LGRN

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 24°
Actual
41° / 25°
Error: -12°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0"
Actual
0"
✓ Within forecast range
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 25 mph
Actual
5 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations CRMT, BLRK, CCLA, BRND, HARD

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Temperature
Forecast
32° / 25°
Actual
43° / 24°
Error: -11°F high, 1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.3"
Actual
0"
±0.3" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
14 / 23 mph
Actual
5 / 20 mph
Mesonet Stations PCWN, CMBA, GRDR, WOOD, GRBG

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 25°
Actual
38° / 26°
Error: -8°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.6"
Actual
0"
±0.6" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
13 / 26 mph
Actual
5 / 22 mph
Mesonet Stations HHTS, HUEY

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Temperature
Forecast
29° / 24°
Actual
43° / 24°
Error: -14°F high, 0°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
0"
±0.5" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
16 / 26 mph
Actual
8 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations LXGN, SPIN

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea
Temperature
Forecast
30° / 24°
Actual
43° / 26°
Error: -13°F high, -2°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.5"
Actual
0"
±0.5" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
15 / 25 mph
Actual
6 / 19 mph
Mesonet Stations LGNT

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Temperature
Forecast
31° / 27°
Actual
47° / 28°
Error: -16°F high, -1°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
0.8"
Actual
0"
±0.8" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
12 / 26 mph
Actual
6 / 21 mph
Mesonet Stations MRHD, CHTR

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Temperature
Forecast
33° / 24°
Actual
53° / 28°
Error: -20°F high, -4°F low
Precipitation
Forecast
1"
Actual
1.3"
±0.30000000000000004" off
Wind Speed
Forecast
11 / 23 mph
Actual
4 / 24 mph
Mesonet Stations BMBL, QKSD, BNVL, VEST, RFVC, RFSM, PBDY

Frigid Sunday with Light Snow Showers East; Dry West

A cold, arctic air mass will remain firmly in place across the Commonwealth today. A weak clipper-style shortwave will track across the Ohio Valley, bringing scattered light snow showers and flurries to Central and Eastern Kentucky. Western Kentucky will remain dry but chilly under clearing skies.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in frigid temperatures across the state. Moderate confidence in snow placement and timing, but lower confidence in exact accumulation totals due to the moisture-starved nature of the shortwave and high sensitivity to snow-to-liquid ratios.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Frigid with Increasing Sun
Sunny
34°/ 25°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Cold and Mostly Cloudy
Cloudy
31°/ 24°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Brisk and Chilly
Cloudy
33°/ 25°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Passing Flurries Possible
Cloudy
31°/ 26°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Light Snow Flurries
Snow
30°/ 26°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Cold and Overcast
Cloudy
29°/ 24°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Light Snow Showers
Snow
32°/ 25°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Persistent Light Snow
Snow
30°/ 25°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Light Snow and Breezy
Snow
29°/ 24°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Snow Showers this Afternoon
Snow
30°/ 24°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Light Snow Accumulation Expected
Snow
31°/ 27°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Snow Showers
Snow
33°/ 24°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the shortwave slows and taps into slightly deeper low-level moisture, localized totals could reach 1.5 to 2.0 inches in the Northeast and Southeast Coalfields due to orographic enhancement.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If dry-air entrainment (virga) is more aggressive, snowfall will be limited to non-accumulating flurries, with many areas seeing only a trace.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Eastern Mountain Enhancement

Disagreement exists on the magnitude of orographic lift in the Southeast Coalfields. GEM and NAM suggest totals over 1 inch, while the GFS/Euro keep totals closer to 0.5 inches.

NAM
VS
GEM
VS
GFS
Why GEM Wins

The GEM typically captures the subtle upslope flow and moisture convergence in the Kentucky mountains more accurately than global models in clipper-like setups.

Affected Regions
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDSNORTHEAST KY

The Virga Barrier

The models are in conflict regarding how far west the light snow showers will penetrate. The GEM is more aggressive, bringing flurries to the I-69 corridor, while the GFS and NAM maintain a sharp dry-slot cutoff near I-65.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
GEM
Why BLEND Wins

High pressure building from the Ozarks will provide significant subsidence and dry-air entrainment in the low levels, favoring the drier GFS/NAM solution for the western third of the state.

Affected Regions
NORTHWEST PENNYRILELINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical column is entirely sub-freezing across the state with an isothermal layer below 2km. The DGZ is favorably positioned near the surface (-12C to -18C between 850mb and 700mb).

Thermal Boundary

The 0C isotherm is located well south of the Kentucky-Tennessee border.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal trends are expected in the East as thick cloud cover and persistent cold air advection counteract afternoon solar heating.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No major surface front; the event is driven by a secondary arctic push and mid-level vorticity advection.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky sits in the right-entrance region of a 110kt jet streak, providing broad, weak synoptic lift.

Energy Status

A compact area of positive vorticity advection (PVA) pivots from Northwest to Southeast between 15Z and 22Z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated in the east between 900mb and 700mb, while western regions remain dry with significant dewpoint depressions at the surface.

Precipitation Character

Light stratiform snow showers with brief convective flurries possible in areas of better lift.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk; PWATs are below 0.25 inches.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Pure snow event with no warm nose detected in any sounding profiles.

Crystal Habit

Dendritic habit likely; 12:1 to 15:1 ratios used for accumulation calculations.

Road Impact

Pavement temperatures will stay near or below freezing, allowing for accumulation on untreated surfaces and slick spots on bridges.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

28% Illumination
Moonrise
10:04 AM
Moonset
11:34 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:36 AM
Sunset
6:42 PM
Civil Dawn
7:09 AM
Civil Dusk
7:08 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:31 AM
Sunset
6:35 PM
Civil Dawn
7:04 AM
Civil Dusk
7:02 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:31 AM
Sunset
6:38 PM
Civil Dawn
7:05 AM
Civil Dusk
7:04 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:27 AM
Sunset
6:34 PM
Civil Dawn
7:01 AM
Civil Dusk
7:00 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:26 AM
Sunset
6:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:59 AM
Civil Dusk
6:56 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:25 AM
Sunset
6:30 PM
Civil Dawn
6:59 AM
Civil Dusk
6:57 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:20 AM
Sunset
6:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:53 AM
Civil Dusk
6:52 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:22 AM
Sunset
6:23 PM
Civil Dawn
6:55 AM
Civil Dusk
6:50 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:20 AM
Sunset
6:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:54 AM
Civil Dusk
6:51 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:19 AM
Sunset
6:24 PM
Civil Dawn
6:53 AM
Civil Dusk
6:51 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:13 AM
Sunset
6:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:47 AM
Civil Dusk
6:43 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:14 AM
Sunset
6:20 PM
Civil Dawn
6:48 AM
Civil Dusk
6:47 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.