Saturday, February 21
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 20 at 2:28PM EST until February 21 at 4:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Advisory for the following rivers in Kentucky... Kentucky River at Heidelberg affecting Lee County.
WHAT Elevated river levels caused by excessive rainfall are expected.
WHERE Kentucky River at Heidelberg.
WHEN From this afternoon to Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1:45 PM EST Friday the stage was 16.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.6 feet just after midnight tonight. The river will continue to run high through Saturday afternoon. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. The next statement will be issued late tonight at 500 AM EST.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 20 at 3:34PM EST until February 22 at 5:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Advisory for the following rivers in Kentucky... Kentucky River near Ravenna affecting Estill County.
WHAT Elevated river levels caused by excessive rainfall are expected.
WHERE Kentucky River near Ravenna.
WHEN From this afternoon to early Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 3:20 PM EST Friday the stage was 17.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.1 feet early Saturday morning. The river will continue to run high through late Saturday night. - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. The next statement will be issued Saturday morning at 600 AM EST.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 21 at 4:40AM EST until February 22 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY
...The Flood Advisory is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky... Kentucky River near Ravenna affecting Estill County. Kentucky River at Heidelberg affecting Lee County.
WHAT Elevated river levels caused by excessive rainfall continue.
WHERE Kentucky River near Ravenna.
WHEN Until Sunday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 4:20 AM EST Saturday the stage was 17.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.7 feet this morning. - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 445 PM EST.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued February 21 at 4:40AM EST until February 21 at 7:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
...The Flood Advisory is extended for the following rivers in Kentucky... Kentucky River near Ravenna affecting Estill County. Kentucky River at Heidelberg affecting Lee County.
WHAT Elevated river levels caused by excessive rainfall continue.
WHERE Kentucky River at Heidelberg.
WHEN Until this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 3:45 AM EST Saturday the stage was 16.4 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 11.6 feet by Wednesday evening. - Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternative route. The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 445 PM EST.
Winter Weather Advisory
Winter Weather Advisory issued February 21 at 1:42PM EST until February 23 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Higher accumulations to 5 inches possible over the higher terrain near the Virginia border.
WHERE Portions of northeast and southeast Kentucky.
WHEN From 11 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.
IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusts of 15 to 25 mph combined with falling snow may cause sudden visibility reductions during the daytime hours Sunday and Monday.
Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 21 at 1:58PM EST by NWS Jackson KY
Light snow accumulations are expected at times from late Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph combined with the falling snow may produce sudden sharp visibility reductions, especially during the daytime hours Sunday and Monday. Total snow accumulations of one-half to around 1 inch are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Temperatures during this time will range from the 20s to the lower 30s, so minor impacts to travel are possible.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued February 21 at 4:31PM EST by NWS Louisville KY
An upper level weather disturbance will move across the region this afternoon and evening. Areas of light precipitation in the form of light rain, light sleet, and/or snow flurries will be possible across the area. Temperatures are expected to remain well above freezing, so no travel impacts are expected with this activity.
How Did We Do?
Comparing our AI forecast to actual observations from Saturday, February 21, 2026.
Regional Assessments
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
A Chilly Front Brings Light Rain and Falling Temperatures
A moisture-starved cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Saturday, bringing scattered light rain showers and drizzle followed by a sharp drop in temperatures. Most precipitation will remain liquid, though a few flurries could mix in very late as moisture exits.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for a cooling trend and high cloud cover. Confidence is lower regarding measurable precipitation totals due to the dry low-level air and the discrepancy between the GFS and other models regarding the rain-to-snow transition.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Light rain showers will move through during the early morning hours, likely ending before noon. The rest of the day will be cloudy and turning colder.
Northwest Pennyrile
A few light showers or patches of drizzle are possible during the afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a damp start with light rain through the morning commute. It will stay cloudy and breezy through the afternoon.
Barren River
A pleasant afternoon with highs near 50 will be followed by a few light rain showers after sunset. Rainfall will be very light.
Louisville Metro
The Louisville area will likely stay dry for most of the day, with light rain arriving after dark. No snow is expected as temps stay above freezing while it rains.
Lincoln Trail
Expect overcast conditions all day. A thin line of light rain will move through during the evening hours, dampening the roads.
Lake Cumberland
Enjoy a relatively mild Saturday with highs in the low 50s. Light rain showers will move in late this evening but totals will be minimal.
Northern Kentucky
Cloudy and chilly conditions will persist throughout the day. Light rain will move in during the evening, potentially mixing with a few flakes before ending late tonight.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain showers will develop this evening. While a stray snowflake is possible as the rain ends late tonight, no accumulation or travel impacts are expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a grey and damp evening with light rain and patches of fog in the higher elevations. Roads will be wet but no ice is expected.
Northeast Kentucky
A quiet day will lead into a damp evening as light rain and mist develop after dark. Temperatures will stay above freezing until the rain ends.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a mild and dry Saturday afternoon with light rain showers arriving in the mountains after sunset. No snow accumulation is expected in the valleys.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves the GFS solution verifying, where deeper moisture trails the cold front. This would result in a quick burst of wet snow, potentially accumulating up to 1 inch on grassy surfaces in the Bluegrass and Southeast Coalfields.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario sees low-level dry air winning. Significant dewpoint depressions lead to most precipitation evaporating as virga, leaving the state with nothing more than a few sprinkles and overcast skies.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Void
Models disagree on how much rain actually reaches the ground. High PoPs (80%+) are countered by extremely low QPF (under 0.05"), suggesting a risk that dry air in the lowest 2km will evaporate the rain.
Why BLEND Wins
Utilizing a blend of NAM/GEM to account for higher resolution terrain-induced drizzle in the Foothills and Coalfields while respecting the overall dry synoptic signal.
The Post-Frontal Snow Struggle
The GFS is an aggressive outlier, depicting deep moisture trailing the cold front (anafront structure) which allows for a 3-hour window of snow. The NAM, Euro, and GEM show a drier post-frontal environment where moisture departs before the column cools sufficiently for snow.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM and GEM better resolve the shallow nature of the cold air and the high-resolution moisture cut-off. Soundings suggest the 'Warm Nose' at 850mb does not erode fast enough to overlap with the primary moisture band.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.